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December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:16 pm

I agree models show it, I just feel it never verifies to be as bad

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:20 pm

Also noting on 00z NAM the temps never get higher than 32-35 IMB, thats still cold enough for snow, but I undetrstand in this cae the 850 temps are important too if not more, but the fact they are that low leads me to believe the rain will freeze on contact.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:21 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:I agree models show it, I just feel it never verifies to be as bad

can be true but id still be careful venturing out. easiest way to tell look at branches, if covered in ice not good.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:30 pm

safety first always, with ice I always worry about power outages first. I will figure out the roads. Radar shows precip on the way soon

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:35 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:safety first always, with ice I always worry about power outages first. I will figure out the roads. Radar shows precip on the way soon

yeah luckily the high winds (which we may get a warrented warning for sat night into sunday with 50-55mph gusts maybe higher, last nights was a big opps for NWS, I barely heard anything) will not be at the same time as any ice lessening the issues for power. Of course if ice gets above .25 then you gotta worry. I have only once seen the aftermath 1st hand of a ice storm of 1 inches in mountainous area of CT, wow what a mess.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:37 pm

22°F here every flake will accumulate

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:39 pm

Okay, where does news 12 get their info from? No wonder no on is prepping or talking of anything. meaning in the coating to 2 inch area which has been showing much more on models and pretty much agreed here it will b 2 plus. even my wwa says 3 to 5 with .10 ice. and i think the ice may b low.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Image10
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:43 pm

3-6 for me looks good but I only read that as 6 haha.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:52 pm

If I had to guess snow is at Ny Penn border

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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:26 am

Snow now reported in Binghamton. Shouldn't be too long now for our western members.
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:40 am

I recommend everyone downloads and uses the mPING report app for their phone. Could be very helpful especially during a storm like this.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:54 am

W00T let's do some now casting

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:03 am

Looks like we're seeing the dry slot over WV and OH is beginning to fill in. Most sims do not have real precip in the area until 3-4am.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Wrf_re10

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:04 am

Although that stuff in NW NJ is probably not virga,,,

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by Dtone Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:08 am

I agree ice predictions rarely materialize as bad as models depict. But this scenario seems like one where it has a chance to verify or come close. I remember couple yrs back the area was caught by surprise by freezing rain and it was accidents everywhere. and then the Frz rain held on way longer than that most ppl thought. Even when most obs were 33 -35 icing was still occurring.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:52 am

Nothing here yet
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Dec 17, 2016 2:13 am

Light snow has begun, expecting about 2" here before it gets washed away... These setups are infuriating, we just had the coldest blast of air of the season and it ultimately is going to waste with the HP sliding off the coast.
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Post by snow247 Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:35 am

Light snow has begun here. Only expecting 1-2 here at the most. I'm simply way too far west. Enjoy the several inches coming LI & CT!
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Post by billg315 Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:55 am

23* with Light Snow. Coating on everything but not enough yet to fully cover the grass.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:39 am

25* with about a half inch on the ground.  Grass almost covered.  Currently light-mod snow.  Snow filling in nicely over LI

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6304347826086957&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=407.9310344827586&centery=224.1379310344828&transx=7.931034482758605&transy=-15


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:44 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:42 am

Everything completely covered grass and roads I say a solid inch
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:44 am

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.6304347826086957&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=407.9310344827586&centery=224.1379310344828&transx=7.931034482758605&transy=-15

You can see surface frontogenesis occurring right where the heaviest axis of snow on the radar above just S of LI

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Sfnt


Winds at 925 and 850mb already driving in from the south:

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 925mb_sf
December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 850mb_sf

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:47 am

This is going to be a big test.  Recall the write up I had with the 6hrly 850mb freezing line positions.  notice the first image is the current 850mb 0*C line along the S boarder of NJ.  In 6 hrs models had it up in Massachusetts.  

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 850mb_10
December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Euro_814
December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Euro_815

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:53 am

@snow247 wrote:Hey sroc, where did you find the blank map that you use for your snowfall maps? Unfortunately I lost the one I used to use and can't seem to find any others.

Anyway, temp is sitting at 22 here currently. Radar showing lots of virga popping up to the west.

Hey Snow247 check Banter thread

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:57 am

First flakes began falling here at 2:45. Really started coming down last 1/2 hour. approaching 2" already. If it keeps up we will be over 4" by 9.

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