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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:08 pm

I would say the southern stream is the biggest difference. Looks more progressive. Too bad. I don't consider things a trend unless they maintain the same output on 2 consecutive runs. We'll see what 00z EURO shows tonight. But today's models for Wave 2 are a slight punch to the gut. No KO yet...

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:10 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:precip amts for QPF went down for N&W zones for wave 1

For wave 1 it actually looks identical to the 0z run

Check the other thread

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO:

I really don't like anything this run. Every feature took a step back. Ridge, northern stream, southern stream, and heights along EC.
correct me if I'm wrong but 5 days out a step back can easily correct and go in our favor. Now if it was 1 or 2 days I'd throw in towel.

You're correct

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:11 pm

Let me be clear the EURO is not the GFS. But aloft a slight step in the wrong direction which can easily be fixed.

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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:12 pm

hearing only 25-50 miles east
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:13 pm

Yup shift towards what the CMC looked like.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:14 pm

Jet streak is weaker and further east.

12z

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 586d3b2ea1483

00z

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 586d3b5f9cc34


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:17 pm

Very slight differences. And personally I think a trend is at least 3 runs in the right direction. But 2 is good. Been a lot flip flop with both of these as have all storms this year.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:22 pm

Please post the euro snow map ensembles hopefully we have more than 13 hits or at least about the same. I know those are not out for a while.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:24 pm

Of course no one is throwing in any towels here, but my concern is that we hit the NW trend wall. As is typical with a southern system you have GFS way east, Euro furthest west, CMC in the middle, and they all start to correct somewhere in the middle. This would likely lead to a minor-moderate event at best along areas furthest S&E and possibly leaving areas N&W out completely. Again not all the energy is properly sampled, it was one run, and there is still lots of time here so what ever. But honestly my knee jerk reaction is....S!@t, Ba!!s, C@&K, F$&k!!!!! And I'm back to objectivity

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:34 pm

Everyone really needs to relax on this storm. new video coming. I have no new thoughts. like I said yesterday the backedge is I-95.... Per Bernie Rayno 3 mins ago.

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Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:37 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Everyone really needs to relax on this storm. new video coming. I have no new thoughts. like I said yesterday the backedge is I-95....  Per Bernie Rayno 3 mins ago.
D, what's Rayno saying. I have to pretend to look busy at work lol

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:41 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Very slight differences. And personally I think a trend is at least 3 runs in the right direction. But 2 is good. Been a lot flip flop with both of these as have all storms this year.

Very slight differences will produce very drastic differences in out come. Here are how close the differences are at 500mb, about 50-70miles at most +/- Notice the energy to the N is about the same. Two main differneces. 1) weaker system, and 2) lower heights along the coast.

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 12z_ja11


The results of such small differences gives snow totals from this at 00Z

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 Euro_o10

To this at 12z.

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 12z_ja10

The good news is only minor changes and we are back in business as per the euro op. The bad news is its the western most soln. The other models are east of this, so for now I'm hesitant to expect the world here.



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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:45 pm

http://www.lakewood732.com/2016/12/first-storm-of-2017.html
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:46 pm

We will see I can't argue anythimg concrete. Ur little rant sroc reminds me of when Chevy chase goes nuts about his non bonus in Christmas vacation lol
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:48 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Very slight differences. And personally I think a trend is at least 3 runs in the right direction. But 2 is good. Been a lot flip flop with both of these as have all storms this year.

Very slight differences will produce very drastic differences in out come.  Here are how close the differences are at 500mb, about 50-70miles at most +/-  Notice the energy to the N is about the same.  Two main differneces.  1) weaker system, and 2) lower heights along the coast.  

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 12z_ja11


The results of such small differences gives snow totals from this at 00Z

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 Euro_o10

To this at 12z.  

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 4 12z_ja10

The good news is only minor changes and we are back in business as per the euro op.  The bad news is its the western most soln.  The other models are east of this, so for now I'm hesitant to expect the world here.  
 

Def want hear or see ensembles when they come in. Hopefully they improved or stayed same as 00z.
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:54 pm

I said on Saturday night I would wait till Wednesday morning before I got excited or threw in the towel so here it goes shout shout Tired Mad Tired Mad GFS Model GFS Model   IF WE GET A TOTAL OF 1-3" AREA WIDE FOR BOTH EVENTS COMBINED WITH ALL THIS TALK/HYPE ABOUT POTENTIAL THEN I'M JOINING CP ON A LOOOOOOOOOOONG TRACKING HIATUS!!!!!!!!  phew...I feel a little better

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:55 pm

NC and SE VA get for them a Godzilla.

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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:58 pm

Jim- if the models the past 24 hours said no storm and all of a sudden produced an area wide godzilla would you change your tune? This is one run we all need to see how things shake out tonight and tomorrow. It's just one run. No need to throw in any towels just yet.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:06 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NC and SE VA get for them a Godzilla.
Ironic crummy and rare to say huh, banter away but do it where we are allowed. I am with you on the frustration but it's not over till we get within a day or so of the event, these models have been so bad this year.
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Post by emokid51783 Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:07 pm

How much of a hindrance to good modeling is the fact that the northern energy doesn't get onshore for another day or 2.

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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:08 pm

@emo.. from what I hear it plays a role, so nothing is game set match for this storm.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:13 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:FWIW the NWS has us at less than a 10% chance of snow from wave 1 or 2!!

They are waiting for more of a consensus.  Being a public site I dont blame them and OTS is still on the table.  

JIM!!!  You only hear what you want to hear. Remember this statement not but a few hours ago?  Keep your temper tantrums in the banter thread or they will be deleted.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by jake732 Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:56 pm

FWD:: EPS look markedly worse than 0z. Same issues that were discussed on the op.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:12 pm

@jake732 wrote:FWD::  EPS look markedly worse than 0z.  Same issues that were discussed on the op.

Yup!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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