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January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:17 pm

96 H5 closes off over NC.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:21 pm

HOLY CRAP EURO just crushed the Coast from hr 96 - 118 JESUS MOther of Storms for them relentless winds and rain
Interior get crushed with snow
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 588102e8d6236_1-19-20171-17-57PM.thumb.png.a81f2fe495ff8ff86e2e12bf9a0f757a


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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:21 pm

STALLS OVER THE DELMARVA OMG!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:21 pm

EURO

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 5881039731ddb

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 588103a53a752

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 588103b8841a4

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:22 pm

High winds on the EURO too

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 5881035117a13.thumb.png.920f160aa4148bc4f4a5a40326f7b6e3

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:23 pm

This is going to be bad for all areas along the Jersey shore

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:27 pm

Must admit the precipitation shield was a bit underwhelming, but evolution was amazing

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:28 pm

Coastal areas are in trouble
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:45 pm

Storm surge for the Shore?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:50 pm

Jesus 20 hr period of winds 40 to 60+ gusts worst monday afternoon through tues morning. Snow is well inland and ya rb precip was sparse I think it's undermideled. Also will those winds mix down even though surface wind maps show gusts 60+ mph. Bad news coast nj nyc surround suburbs and li coastal ct. Looks like my drive monday afternoon us not going to b fun.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:52 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Must admit the precipitation shield was a bit underwhelming, but evolution was amazing

Ive noticed this too on several runs on various models. Is this thing becoming occluded by the time it gets to us?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:55 pm

Did I see that right 974mb and over land and a stall prolonging the winds? This will cause a huge amount of power disruption and beach coastal flooding. Rain doesn't look heavy enough to flood but I can see the rain shield being more inpressive.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:57 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Must admit the precipitation shield was a bit underwhelming, but evolution was amazing

Ive noticed this too on several runs on various models.  Is this thing becoming occluded by the time it gets to us?
what does occluded mean again sroc? This looks like it may b a moderate rain and mainly wind threat. Was showing 5 plus inches rain few days ago.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:59 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Storm surge for the Shore?

Looks like about 3-4 feet right now on Monday.

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:06 pm

Does anybody have the WxBell qpf map for the grand totals?

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:11 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Must admit the precipitation shield was a bit underwhelming, but evolution was amazing

Ive noticed this too on several runs on various models.  Is this thing becoming occluded by the time it gets to us?

Technically, yes, but that's not the reason. Right now as progged, the mid-level evolution is almost ideal for the interior, and just narrowly not so for the coastal plain. The reason why the precipitation fields are varying from model to model and run to run right now is because the exact placement and structure of the H5 low is still uncertain. Remember, your best forcing and dynamics occur roughly 200-300 miles on the north and northwest side of a closed mid-level low. The reason the Euro is "drier" is because it tracks the H5 low right over our area. So, we get part of the precipitation shield while it's over the Delmarva, but then notice how the axis of heaviest precipitation is centered through west-central NY and Pa as the H5 low moves overhead. The GFS, however, takes the H5 low with the same intensity evolution, and tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast, allowing the "comma head" to work right through our whole area. The CMC is kind of like a blend of the Euro and GFS, although what it does with the H5 low beyond the Delmarva, along with its jet, makes little sense to me.

Does that help?

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:12 pm

Yes Scott this is not a typical Nor'easter where the storm hits the Carolina coast and then explodes as it comes North it actually explodes down south and weekends as it heads up. We need those Dynamics the GFS was showing just west of Philly and then West Central New Jersey to shift about a hundred miles east
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:13 pm

24 hr period of TS force wind gusts, 12 hr or so over 50/60mph wow, thats crazy.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf_16

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf_20

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf_17

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf_18

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf_19


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:16 pm

@TheAresian wrote:Does anybody have the WxBell qpf map for the grand totals?
Like 1-3 inches for the area or so rain, no snow on euro unless well inland.

right you will probably see snow, heres the map.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf_21


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Post by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:19 pm

I'm definitely well inland. And I definitely do NOT envy you guys.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:22 pm

Personally, while I think the Euro is on track on the broad scale, I think it's misrepresenting the H5 low and resultant precipitation field.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:23 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Personally, while I think the Euro is on track on the broad scale, I think it's misrepresenting the H5 low and resultant precipitation field.

There is a ton of vorticity that doesnt begin coming ashore for 48hrs. Long way to go.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:24 pm

@TheAresian wrote:I'm definitely well inland. And I definitely do NOT envy you guys.
We envy you on this one! We would much rather it be snow and wind than rain and wind, though a heavy wet snow and 50-60mph winds would be even worse for trees.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:25 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Personally, while I think the Euro is on track on the broad scale, I think it's misrepresenting the H5 low and resultant precipitation field.

There is a ton of vorticity that doesnt begin coming ashore for 48hrs.  Long way to go.  

Dos this have to possibility to be even more intense say sub 970mb? Giving us even more insane winds, and wouldnt that also bring in enough of its own cold air to bring snow right down to the coast or close?
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:26 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Personally, while I think the Euro is on track on the broad scale, I think it's misrepresenting the H5 low and resultant precipitation field.

There is a ton of vorticity that doesnt begin coming ashore for 48hrs.  Long way to go.  

Agreed lol I'm looking VERY forward the Euro Ensembles haha

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