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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:49 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs_asnow_neus_41
my only worry is sp did euro for Sunday then poof. Does this one have a much more promising setup with less room for suppression or other problems to arise?
There are a couple of scenarios that might occur which would screw things up. One of less concern is if wave 2 comes much farther north than progged. if that were to happen, it might mess with heights along the east coast. I don't see that happening though. Of more of a concern is our monster storm really amping up to the point where it cuts inland.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:15 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:What a run by the 6Z GFS. Shows a slow moving blizzard on Tuesday. Unable to post snow map, but shows 15-30 inches. Very strong signal for a big storm, although EURO not on board yet has me somewhat concerned. Although I'm hearing the EPS was much improved last night. Still 5-6 days away so a lot can change for better or worse.
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs_asnow_neus_41
my only worry is sp did euro for Sunday then poof. Does this one have a much more promising setup with less room for suppression or other problems to arise?
There are a couple of scenarios that might occur which would screw things up. One of less concern is if wave 2 comes much farther north than progged. if that were to happen, it might mess with heights along the east coast. I don't see that happening though. Of more of a concern is our monster storm really amping up to the point where it cuts inland.
like the euro shows. But gfs ramps it up in the perfect spot.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:21 am

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_15

Here is a snapshot of the pattern Saturday morning. A piece of the PV is in SE Canada and there is a fierce -NAO/-WPO signature with ridging over Greenland and NW of Alaska. As this PV lobe lifts north and gets trapped under the NAO block, it creates a traffic jam in the atmosphere which allows upper energy downstream to consolidate at the base of a mid-level trough.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_26

By early Tuesday morning, there is a full latitude trough over the eastern CONUS rapidly turning neutral to negative. The PNA ridge spike is a critical feature to get the northern stream energy to dig into the trough. If that feature is not there, the energy will remain over the Great Lakes and we'll be left with either no storm or a much less robust looking one. This does have Roidzilla potential and should be watched.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:23 am

Loop of the 06z GFS is gorgeous.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 IMG_0491.thumb.GIF.f581787b0ffddd5b96249e1348c91764

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:36 am

Hope euro improves the Pac jet is on roids and we need it to buckle.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:03 am

The differences between the GFS soln and Euro soln can be seen in the west.  First you have two pices of energy that need tocome together.  A & B.  The main difference between the two right now is how the PNA ridge is progged.  Notice on the GFS there is a much steeper ridge axis up into Canada.  The reason for this can be seen in the energy off the WC of Canada(circle labeled C) in the GOA region.  The GFS has most of that energy further east when compared to the euro.  The result is it aids in pumping the PNA ridge Northward and has the axis a tad further E relative to the Euro.  The euro notice the circle labeled C is further west; concurrently the ridge axis is further west and ultimately the ridge is flatter than the GFS.  

The result of the PNA ridge as the euro depicts is such that A is not as robust and consolidated when compared to the GFS, and B is further N and more strung out because the flow east of it is more progressive when compared to the GFS.  Again all due to the differences in the Western Ridge.  

The timing is perfect on  the GFS.  The positioning of B relative to A along with the stronger W Ridge allows A to dive sharply S ward into the Bck side of B which phases te two streams and like Frank said, tilts the trough neutral then neg leading to a storm track up the coast.  Because the Euro is less robust with the W Ridge the interactions between A and B are less impressive and the storm track is flatter, and because B is further N to start so is the surface LP as it reaches the coast.  

Lastly there is energy labled D.  Notice on the Euro strong vorticity extends well into the SW conus aroud the Az/NM region; whereas; the GFS has it held back and dips south and remains into Mexico.  This may be one reason why the S stream is not allowed to dig as deep on the euro.  

This def screams some form of a Miller B or surface LP transfer to the coast.  LOOOONG way to go with this one.  GFS is nice but its not under 72hrs so pefect at this time frame is less than perfect.  

We Track!  What a Face

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs_z513
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Ecmwf_43


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:19 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:25 am

Thank you Sroc..I always feel comforted when you add your We Track...lol..that hope is not lost!! Hope all of you have a great day..
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:34 am

GFS 12z storm on Tuesday is a long duration crush job. It snows for 36 hours!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:54 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS 12z storm on Tuesday is a long duration crush job. It snows for 36 hours!
but it must be very light as its about 10-12 inches around city subtract 2 thats 10 inches max in 36 hrs, very light will probably not stick during day if its not blitzing. in 36 hrs id expect to see at least roidzilla if not frankzilla amounts if it was snowing at a good rate.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:00 pm

cmc has nothing next week...
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:39 pm

The GEFS are monstrous for next week. The UKIE would also show a huge hit. As Scott said, long way to go but I really like the potential as long as the ridge out west holds!

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 58c03abb931de

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:26 pm

EURO H5 is extremely sexy.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Sketched_58c04cafed616

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:28 pm

Trough is going negative on the EURO, the PNA ridge linked with the NAO ridge, and all I see while I sit here behind my desk is pure epicness. And Tuesday is not far away!

MADONNE!

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 58c04d2cab97b

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:29 pm

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 500mb_geopotential_height_cyclonic_vorticity_CONUS_hr144.thumb.png.a4f59d750192e1d7dcfa0f7ae701ffef

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:31 pm

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 58c04d82c920e

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:31 pm

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_7

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:34 pm

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 58c04e11990a4

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:50 pm

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 58c05010
EURO snow map is madonne worthy. Very Happy
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:15 pm

Okay on afield trip all day and all.I have to say HOLY SHT THE H5 IS SI K FOR A YUUUUGGGE STORM!!!

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_25.jpg.5437218a32a2a7006c9615a7980c26e4

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:16 pm

Jman euro playing catch up here, this storm on the euro still has room to grow LMAO!!

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 58c04e11990a4

Help me out Frank...where is the R/S line here. Is it the 32 line, the lighter, thinner solid blue line, the last dotted blue line ...or somewhere in between?  Thanks...

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:32 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 58c04e11990a4

Help me out Frank...where is the R/S line here. Is it the 32 line, the lighter, thinner solid blue line, the last dotted blue line ...or somewhere in between?  Thanks...

I prefer using the 850mb isotherm. Solid thin light blue line.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:33 pm

Wonderful changes aloft on the euro tday relative to the 00z as outline in my write up this morning. To show you how similar the 12z euro is to the GFS lets look at 00z euro first then the 12z from today.  

Notice the energy B is no longer strung out, but rather consolidated, and notice it is much further south when compared to 00z.  This is likely the direct result of a much stronger and better positioned W Ridge/ Ridge axis.  

Also look at energy D in the SW.  The energy here is also further south.  Now Im not sure how much this plays a role: ie: with the energy further N&W like the 00z euro does it act to undercut the southern portion of the W ridge; therefore, lead to a dampened Southern portion of the W Ridge, a more progressive flow, the more northerly track to energy B, and a more sheared out appearance to it because of the more progressive flow. And since Eneregy D is further S does it leave room for the W Ridge as a whole to amplify better?  ORRR is energy D further S as a direct result of a better ridge?   Either way you can see how close the GFS and Euro are.

The last thing to point out here is that what we have been calling wave two seems to get involved with the STJ such that the confluence of the N branch and the STJ out over the atlantic looks to funnel our S energy down the middle.  Obv as the flow narrows down it slows therefore allowing the N branch energy A to dive into the backside of B and BOOM!

Lets get 24-48hrs of consistency here before we get too excited.  

WE TRACK!!! What a Face

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Ecmwf_43
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Ecmwf_44
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 Gfs_z513

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Post by mikeypizano Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:34 pm

I can try and deny this is happening all I want, but its probably gunna be a blizzard... Anyone have a snow total for that GEFS map?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 08, 2017 3:07 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 37 500mb_geopotential_height_cyclonic_vorticity_CONUS_hr144.thumb.png.a4f59d750192e1d7dcfa0f7ae701ffef
WOW, and wow to th snow map, big diff from the cut west from last night, I like Franks entusiasm as I do everyone elses here with the good knowledge, sounds like we could be in for a epicness storm as frank used the word not me. Of course yes one run but also to frank tuesday is less than a week away.
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