Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[billg315]

Greslig! Happy birthday! Didn't realize we had the same b-day, haha. I'm sure there will be a party in the OTI Coconut Lounge this evening!

[billg315]

This is an interesting topic for discussion. Would love to hear the thoughts of others. I find this story stunning. In a nutshell, the NWS realizes Monday afternoon their snowfall amounts are overdone (or they believe they are overdone) but doesn't reduce them because they either (and this depends on how you spin it, but I submit it's the same thing) A. Don't want to "confuse" people into thinking the storm won't be as bad; or B. Are trying to scare people into being prepared. Look, I am all for making sure people are prepared. But science is about facts and data, not trying to spin the data to achieve an outcome. I think it was incumbent on them, if they really believed totals would be lower, to say so and then to emphasize that people still need to be prepared because its still a dangerous storm. I think people are smart enough to realize they need to prepare for a storm whether it's 10" or 20". And here is the most important reason why: Many people right now have fallen into that "Oh you can't trust the forecasters" mode. As Math said yesterday, next big storm, many people may not listen to warnings. So by trying to not "confuse" people, they may have undercut their own credibility, which may be more dangerous in the long-term. It's a tough job, and I respect the work these guys do, but this is the first time I think I've seen the NWS admit to putting out a forecast they didn't really believe in. That can't happen.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_WINTER_WEATHER_FORECAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-03-14-17-17-34

[Taffy]

Happy Birthday to billg and gresling. May your year be filled with light, love and laughter.


Just drove a mile to the local mom and pop store. The roads are the worst I've ever seen. Ice is inches thick.

Thanks heaven for the "marauding" group of boys with shovels slung over their shoulders. I love them.

Blizzard of 78' in Red Sox Suck is still the best one for me.

[billg315]

Happy Birthday to billg and gresling. May your year be filled with light, love and laughter.


Just drove a mile to the local mom and pop store. The roads are the worst I've ever seen. Ice is inches thick.

Thanks heaven for the "marauding" group of boys with shovels slung over their shoulders. I love them.

Blizzard of 78' in Red Sox Suck is still the best one for me.

Thank you!

[brownie]

This is an interesting topic for discussion. Would love to hear the thoughts of others. I find this story stunning. In a nutshell, the NWS realizes Monday afternoon their snowfall amounts are overdone (or they believe they are overdone) but doesn't reduce them because they either (and this depends on how you spin it, but I submit it's the same thing) A. Don't want to "confuse" people into thinking the storm won't be as bad; or B. Are trying to scare people into being prepared. Look, I am all for making sure people are prepared. But science is about facts and data, not trying to spin the data to achieve an outcome. I think it was incumbent on them, if they really believed totals would be lower, to say so and then to emphasize that people still need to be prepared because its still a dangerous storm. I think people are smart enough to realize they need to prepare for a storm whether it's 10" or 20". And here is the most important reason why: Many people right now have fallen into that "Oh you can't trust the forecasters" mode. As Math said yesterday, next big storm, many people may not listen to warnings. So by trying to not "confuse" people, they may have undercut their own credibility, which may be more dangerous in the long-term. It's a tough job, and I respect the work these guys do, but this is the first time I think I've seen the NWS admit to putting out a forecast they didn't really believe in. That can't happen.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_WINTER_WEATHER_FORECAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-03-14-17-17-34

Unexpected things happen with weather systems all the time.  

Yesterday's storm was awful here in Parsippany, and the huge amount of sleet made it just as bad to clean up as if another 6-12 inches of snow had fallen.  I went out to the store about an hour ago and the roads and parking lots are in terrible shape - huge chunks of ice like ruts in the middle of the road.  Plows still out cleaning up.  Most schools in northern NJ are closed again today.

I think they made the right call letting the forecast stand yesterday.  It's not like it ended up being 50 degrees and sunny instead of a bad storm.

[Frank_Wx]

Greslig! Happy birthday! Didn't realize we had the same b-day, haha. I'm sure there will be a party in the OTI Coconut Lounge this evening!

Your birthday does not show up at the bottom of the forum, why??

[billg315]

Greslig! Happy birthday! Didn't realize we had the same b-day, haha. I'm sure there will be a party in the OTI Coconut Lounge this evening!

Your birthday does not show up at the bottom of the forum, why??

I don't think I ever entered it in my profile, although the "315" at the end of screen-name may give it away to some. haha! I'll add it in.

[billg315]

B-Day added. Done.

[billg315]

This is an interesting topic for discussion. Would love to hear the thoughts of others. I find this story stunning. In a nutshell, the NWS realizes Monday afternoon their snowfall amounts are overdone (or they believe they are overdone) but doesn't reduce them because they either (and this depends on how you spin it, but I submit it's the same thing) A. Don't want to "confuse" people into thinking the storm won't be as bad; or B. Are trying to scare people into being prepared. Look, I am all for making sure people are prepared. But science is about facts and data, not trying to spin the data to achieve an outcome. I think it was incumbent on them, if they really believed totals would be lower, to say so and then to emphasize that people still need to be prepared because its still a dangerous storm. I think people are smart enough to realize they need to prepare for a storm whether it's 10" or 20". And here is the most important reason why: Many people right now have fallen into that "Oh you can't trust the forecasters" mode. As Math said yesterday, next big storm, many people may not listen to warnings. So by trying to not "confuse" people, they may have undercut their own credibility, which may be more dangerous in the long-term. It's a tough job, and I respect the work these guys do, but this is the first time I think I've seen the NWS admit to putting out a forecast they didn't really believe in. That can't happen.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_WINTER_WEATHER_FORECAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-03-14-17-17-34

Unexpected things happen with weather systems all the time.  

Yesterday's storm was awful here in Parsippany, and the huge amount of sleet made it just as bad to clean up as if another 6-12 inches of snow had fallen.  I went out to the store about an hour ago and the roads and parking lots are in terrible shape - huge chunks of ice like ruts in the middle of the road.  Plows still out cleaning up.  Most schools in northern NJ are closed again today.

I think they made the right call letting the forecast stand yesterday.  It's not like it ended up being 50 degrees and sunny instead of a bad storm.

I get your point where you are. Many people did get a big storm, and I got what I consider to be a significant storm (even though less than forecasted). The problem is, while many people did get a significant storm and the forecast was close for some people, the forecast was actually way off for many people. Especially in the D.C. area, the Philly and South Jersey area, and the immediate NYC area (which have huge populations). For many of those people it was actually off by a foot or more. That's a big difference. I'm not personally complaining, but there absolutely has been a public backlash in some of those areas. My point is, if they really believed in those numbers, I'm fine with it. Stick to your guns because nothing is certain and these are tough systems to nail down. Don't hedge your bets just to be safe. But in this story they admit actually believing the forecast was off. In that's the case, I really don't think there was anything stopping them from simply adjusting the forecast totals DOWN for those areas and leaving it as was for the areas that ended up getting a big hit as forecasted. It's not an all or nothing deal, they could have just adjusted the numbers a bit to reflect what they thought would happen. It might have saved another annoying round of "the weathermen are always wrong" -- which is an attitude I despise, but which situations like this unfortunately seem to invite.

[dad4twoboys]

Buon Compleanno    Tanti Auguri

              Greslig !!!

[Math23x7]

B-Day added. Done.

1974 or 1975? Because I recall you told me at the meetup on 11/14/15 that it was 1975 (a Saturday)

[billg315]

B-Day added. Done.

1974 or 1975?  Because I recall you told me at the meetup on 11/14/15 that it was 1975 (a Saturday)

1974. Or it could be 1975. Or 1976 even.

[docstox12]

B-Day added. Done.

1974 or 1975?  Because I recall you told me at the meetup on 11/14/15 that it was 1975 (a Saturday)

1974. Or it could be 1975. Or 1976 even.

LOL, you are too young to be suffering from early stages of dementia, leave that to us old goats!!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

[Math23x7]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Negative side to snow huh? So you have never slipped on black ice?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Negative side to snow huh? So you have never slipped on black ice?

Well technically that's not snow, its melted snow usually that reforms as ice. Not a good feeling though.

[Math23x7]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Negative side to snow huh? So you have never slipped on black ice?

Well technically that's not snow, its melted snow usually that reforms as ice. Not a good feeling though.

January 25th, 2001 when I was 10 and February 18th, 2010 was I was 19: I slipped on slick pavement, it undoubtedly hurt. The next time I slipped: February 3rd, 2011 (day after ice storm) on a sidewalk going down a hill late in the night. Fortunately, I knew at that instinct to land on my behind. Didn't really hurt much. Interesting enough, all three of those days were Thursdays.

[docstox12]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Duct Tape!!!!

[docstox12]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Negative side to snow huh? So you have never slipped on black ice?

Well technically that's not snow, its melted snow usually that reforms as ice. Not a good feeling though.

January 25th, 2001 when I was 10 and February 18th, 2010 was I was 19: I slipped on slick pavement, it undoubtedly hurt.  The next time I slipped: February 3rd, 2011 (day after ice storm) on a sidewalk going down a hill late in the night.  Fortunately, I knew at that instinct to land on my behind.  Didn't really hurt much.  Interesting enough, all three of those days were Thursdays.

Well, you youngsters can bounce right back up again but I'm now in the age category that real damage can be done, and as of late, take very special care navigating the ice and snow.

[dad4twoboys]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

perhaps a FINE MESH SCREEN ???

[docstox12]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS confirms there was a blizzard but they have the date March 17th for the storm which is today,LOL.

[GreyBeard]

Hey Frank, hope you packed your shorts and t shirts for Dallas, saw they are expecting record warmth with temps in the mid 80's. Have a good trip.

[Radz]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Guessing you have gable end vents only and the wind forces the powdery snow up through the louvers and through the screening. Long term fix would be to install soffit vents and a ridge vent and close the gable vents off permanently. Quick fix if you have attic access is to install a framework that accepts furnace filters which will allow the air flow yet block particles and snow from entering, then you just remove or change them when needed

[docstox12]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Guessing you have gable end vents only and the wind forces the powdery snow up through the louvers and through the screening. Long term fix would be to install soffit vents and a ridge vent and close the gable vents off permanently. Quick fix if you have attic access is to install a framework that accepts furnace filters which will allow the air flow yet block particles and snow from entering, then you just remove or change them when needed

Excellent idea that would save a ton of money with the other idea of ridge and soffit venting.All predicated on the access of course.

[Grselig]

Happy Birthday to billg and gresling. May your year be filled with light, love and laughter.


Just drove a mile to the local mom and pop store. The roads are the worst I've ever seen. Ice is inches thick.

Thanks heaven for the "marauding" group of boys with shovels slung over their shoulders. I love them.

Blizzard of 78' in Red Sox Suck is still the best one for me.

Thanks for the birthday wishes! We got a foot and I spent time with my small kids. Fun!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just finished dealing with the negative side, if there is such a thing, to a big snow. Snow in the attic that got through the vents during the storm that melted through the ceiling. Anyone know what to do to prevent that in the future? It seems to happen during those huge storms with dry snow.

Guessing you have gable end vents only and the wind forces the powdery snow up through the louvers and through the screening. Long term fix would be to install soffit vents and a ridge vent and close the gable vents off permanently. Quick fix if you have attic access is to install a framework that accepts furnace filters which will allow the air flow yet block particles and snow from entering, then you just remove or change them when needed

Thanks a million Radz I'm going to give that a shot.

[amugs]

This to me is 12z euro 

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