Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

mt holly nws disco...
*Potential for the heaviest snowfall of the season so far for
the I95 and I78 corridors 05z-21z Thursday**
Hazards: None yet but contemplated a watch. But lack of model
consensus/forecaster confidence resulted in waiting another
forecast period before reconsidering a WATCH for the period 05z
/Thursday-21z Thursday. Timing of the snow/temperatures dropping
below freezing with the Thursday morning commute argues for
probable widespread Thursday morning delays, even if this not a
5 to 7 inch 12 hour warning event.
Thursday...Snow north and rain south changing to snow.  Amounts
greatest I-78 region north and probably the largest snowfall of the
winter so far in parts of eastern Pa and northern NJ. cold. Snowfall
rates of an inch an hour possible during the morning in the
I78-180 region. As for the ending time...uncertainty. For now we
say snow ends south midday. Elsewhere in the north snow tapers
to flurries anytime early afternoon to sunset. Wind turns north
northwest and gusts 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures
steady or falling from 7am readings (calendar day highs at 1201AM).

6z gfs on board...

Guess they're liking the NAM. The 6z would make just about our entire forum happy. 9 inches over Skins, 10 over NYC, 12 over SYOS, 11 over mugs and Janet and 15 over Doc and HV. To good to be true but it's been pretty consistent and if anything trending stronger run to run. Still no model agreement but EURO trended stronger overnight and UKMET so who knows. We still can't bet on anything till this energy is over land and we have better samples but as you posted AL NWS is starting to believe which is early in the game for them.

lastly nws disco nyc...

"Attention will be on upstream trough, and eventual sfc low that is
forecast to develop to our southwest, and pass off the Mid Atlantic
coast, on Thu tracking toward or just south of the 40N/70W benchmark.

Have continued to discount the fast/flat GFS solution in favor of a
more amplified a la ECMWF/SREF mean blend. NAM appears too
amplified, and appears much too wet.

It still looks like will rain move in ahead of the approaching low
Wed night. then we will see a transition to snow from NW to SE to
snow as colder air moves in north of the developing low.

An overall snowfall of at least 4-6 inches appears likely, with
the highest amounts over central/eastern Long Island and
southern CT. Position of heaviest snow bands remains in
question, and could well shift north of here. The probabilistic
snowfall forecast will reflect this as well as potential for
amounts of 6-8 inches in the higher percentile categories, not
to be taken lightly since snowfall totals have pushed the 90th
percentile with almost every winter weather event this season."

wow what a difference a few days make in the world of weather. off
to bed to get ready for the 12z runs...

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Guess they're liking the NAM. The 6z would make just about our entire forum happy. 9 inches over Skins, 10 over NYC, 12 over SYOS, 11 over mugs and Janet and 15 over Doc and HV. To good to be true but it's been pretty consistent and if anything trending stronger run to run. Still no model agreement but EURO trended stronger overnight and UKMET so who knows. We still can't bet on anything till this energy is over land and we have better samples but as you posted AL NWS is starting to believe which is early in the game for them.

Add the 6Z GFS to the party. Mothrazilla from CNJ through LHV and all of NYC AND LI. Wish it was tomorrow morning.

I have a question if the storm stats tucked in and closer to coast it isn't good for coastal areas for snow correct?

New SREFS.

I like Euro for the coast#!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Guess they're liking the NAM. The 6z would make just about our entire forum happy. 9 inches over Skins, 10 over NYC, 12 over SYOS, 11 over mugs and Janet and 15 over Doc and HV. To good to be true but it's been pretty consistent and if anything trending stronger run to run. Still no model agreement but EURO trended stronger overnight and UKMET so who knows. We still can't bet on anything till this energy is over land and we have better samples but as you posted AL NWS is starting to believe which is early in the game for them.

Sorry, CP, not buying this at all.NWS says LI and Southern Connecticut will be hardest hit as usual.Let's hope colder temps here give us a good ration so we get the 3 to 7 they predict.Skins posted the latest euro showing the coast gets hit the hardest.I believe that one will play out with the S and E trends of recent years on these coastal systems.

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Guess they're liking the NAM. The 6z would make just about our entire forum happy. 9 inches over Skins, 10 over NYC, 12 over SYOS, 11 over mugs and Janet and 15 over Doc and HV. To good to be true but it's been pretty consistent and if anything trending stronger run to run. Still no model agreement but EURO trended stronger overnight and UKMET so who knows. We still can't bet on anything till this energy is over land and we have better samples but as you posted AL NWS is starting to believe which is early in the game for them.

Sorry, CP, not buying this at all.NWS says LI and Southern Connecticut will be hardest hit as  usual.Let's hope colder temps here  give us a good ration so we get the 3  to 7 they predict.Skins posted the latest euro showing the coast gets hit the hardest.I believe that one will play out with the S and E trends of recent years  on these coastal systems.

Doc I hope we all cash in with this many think the nam is overamped

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Guess they're liking the NAM. The 6z would make just about our entire forum happy. 9 inches over Skins, 10 over NYC, 12 over SYOS, 11 over mugs and Janet and 15 over Doc and HV. To good to be true but it's been pretty consistent and if anything trending stronger run to run. Still no model agreement but EURO trended stronger overnight and UKMET so who knows. We still can't bet on anything till this energy is over land and we have better samples but as you posted AL NWS is starting to believe which is early in the game for them.

Sorry, CP, not buying this at all.NWS says LI and Southern Connecticut will be hardest hit as  usual.Let's hope colder temps here  give us a good ration so we get the 3  to 7 they predict.Skins posted the latest euro showing the coast gets hit the hardest.I believe that one will play out with the S and E trends of recent years  on these coastal systems.

Not buying it on this one Doc, not yet at least, not enough sampling of the energy yet inthe pacific so who knows. Anything goes at this point.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Guess they're liking the NAM. The 6z would make just about our entire forum happy. 9 inches over Skins, 10 over NYC, 12 over SYOS, 11 over mugs and Janet and 15 over Doc and HV. To good to be true but it's been pretty consistent and if anything trending stronger run to run. Still no model agreement but EURO trended stronger overnight and UKMET so who knows. We still can't bet on anything till this energy is over land and we have better samples but as you posted AL NWS is starting to believe which is early in the game for them.

Sorry, CP, not buying this at all.NWS says LI and Southern Connecticut will be hardest hit as  usual.Let's hope colder temps here  give us a good ration so we get the 3  to 7 they predict.Skins posted the latest euro showing the coast gets hit the hardest.I believe that one will play out with the S and E trends of recent years  on these coastal systems.

Doc I hope we all cash in with this many think the nam is overamped

OK, Skins, lets see how it all plays out.I agree on that Nam.Tomorrow morning should make it all a lot clearer.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Guess they're liking the NAM. The 6z would make just about our entire forum happy. 9 inches over Skins, 10 over NYC, 12 over SYOS, 11 over mugs and Janet and 15 over Doc and HV. To good to be true but it's been pretty consistent and if anything trending stronger run to run. Still no model agreement but EURO trended stronger overnight and UKMET so who knows. We still can't bet on anything till this energy is over land and we have better samples but as you posted AL NWS is starting to believe which is early in the game for them.

Sorry, CP, not buying this at all.NWS says LI and Southern Connecticut will be hardest hit as  usual.Let's hope colder temps here  give us a good ration so we get the 3  to 7 they predict.Skins posted the latest euro showing the coast gets hit the hardest.I believe that one will play out with the S and E trends of recent years  on these coastal systems.

Not buying it on this one Doc, not yet at least, not enough sampling of the energy yet inthe pacific so who knows. Anything goes at this point.

CP, I'll be happy with that NWS forecast of 3 to 7.

Here is the CIPS analog for this storm

http://www.nycareaweather.com/archives/february-3-2014/

Coasties. Just remember you have to smell the rain to get the best snow.

Wow the Euro is 985mb, does that mean Frank this has chance to b more than a mothreazilla? It appeared to be just a bit to far offshore. You said yesterday if it is sub 990 it would be a godzilla. That being said the models all still disagree to some extent but a mothrazilla looks most def now, maybe more?

Frank_Wx wrote:Here is the CIPS analog for this storm

http://www.nycareaweather.com/archives/february-3-2014/

I followed this guy for years before he got fickle in his updates sometimes going weeks or even months not updating, very good and answers your emails but then I found this place : )

Also that Feb 3rd storm was only 1012mb, wouldnt that argue that this could be stronger with more precip being its modeled nearly 10-30mb lower?

My main concern about Thursday is the temperatures. 60 degrees tomorrow afternoon would mean we would have to drop about 30 degrees in 12 hours! I've seen it before but if the temps don't drop fast enough my fear is we lose most of the QPF. to rain before any changeover.

I don't understand why the NWS is discounting the NAM. Given the jet structures, I personally find it entirely plausible and actually a bit more likely than the others right now.

rb924119 wrote:I don't understand why the NWS is discounting the NAM. Given the jet structures, I personally find it entirely plausible and actually a bit more likely than the others right now.

They are tards for gods sake - look at the SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MECS BABY!!!!



MOMMA MIA !!!!!!!!!

Where is the rain/snow line in all these great models?

syosnow94 wrote:My main concern about Thursday is the temperatures.  60 degrees tomorrow afternoon would mean we would have to drop about 30 degrees in 12 hours! I've seen it before but if the temps don't drop fast enough my fear is we lose most of the QPF. to rain before any changeover.

Chill it is an arctic front (a banana high) once it gets past you temps will crash like a rock falling out of a 2nd story window - jesus you are worry wort!
You are going to be in a prime spot for snow agai. May start as rain but it will quickly change over to snow.

Are u FN kidding me SKINS and Ace - I swear I hope it rains instead of snow - LOL!! South will have mixing issues - where that line sets up will be probably just below Monmouth cty if I had to guess at this time looking at the data. COuld push down to ACY as per JB thoughts.

amugs wrote:Are u FN kidding me SKINS and Ace - I swear I hope it rains instead of snow - LOL!! South will have mixing issues - where that line sets up will be probably just below Monmouth cty if I had to guess at this time looking at the data. COuld push down to ACY as per JB thoughts.

Mugsy relax I was asking and to your point is because it's a close call for my area

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I don't understand why the NWS is discounting the NAM. Given the jet structures, I personally find it entirely plausible and actually a bit more likely than the others right now.

They are tards for gods sake - look at the SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MECS BABY!!!!



MOMMA MIA !!!!!!!!!

Maybe not a MECS but a high end Mothrazilla for all. I'll take it.

Anybody have any idea on how EPA will do with this storm. We could use a decent snowfall. So far this year I haven't even hit 12 inches yet. Pretty sad Winter so far for my area.