Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:Kuchera ratios:

HOLY SH*T

by **aiannone** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:28 pm

I think the HRRR is sniffing out RB's thoughts

by **Armando Salvadore** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:29 pm

rb924119 wrote:The reason why I continue advertising a further westward adjustment is because of my analysis of the jet structure. Up until now, the short range guidance has been alone in suggesting the explosive development of a coupled short, stubby jet structure prior to movement in favorability for our region, with subsequent maturation as the favorable region passes just east of our western board members. However, given the trends for earlier and more explosive jet development and coupling, this also lends itself to earlier maturation of the system. As such, I am expecting to see these trends aloft continue, as the diabatic heating effects of the rapidly strengthening precipitation field become realized and feed back into the system, which will continue to expand the heaviest of the precipitation field further north and west.

Agreed. Soundings support Conditional symmetric Instability also, this is going to have insane dynamics to work with here and a deep/saturated DGZ growth with exceptional omega values. Jet structure argues for it, plus the Euro is beginning to show almost a closing off of the mid level low which the GFS hinted at earlier. Would expect to see it continue west a bit.

by **Vinnydula** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:29 pm

How good are the long range models only 24 hours out? Shouldn't we been looking at only short range?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:35 pm

ARW's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SREFS are going to be big

by **aiannone** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:ARW's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SREFS are going to be big

Wow Frank that even looks good for BGM huh?

by **mikeypizano** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:50 pm

MADDONE x9001

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

I know Frank and Scott I know, just trying to drum up some posts. Honest to God with the Euro scenario added to ALL the others this is unreal. IMAGINE IF WE HAD BLOCKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OMG now you're really getting greedy!!

by **jake732** Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:59 pm

http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/02/fast-furious.html

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:00 pm

It's been a LONG TIME (I can't remember when) since we had such model consensus on a storm for nyc metro. I'm a happy camper today...

party

by **Radz** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:01 pm

Amazing 12z suite results! Any adjustment to timing? Start 3-5AM, going into early afternoon?

by **amugs** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:03 pm

HOLY SHT - SREFS just DROPPED THE BOMB HERE!!

by **amugs** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:04 pm

by **amugs** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:05 pm

Close up coming up !

SREF, SREF, SREFS!!

by **amugs** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:05 pm

HOLY SHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!

by Guest Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:08 pm

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:ARW's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SREFS are going to be big

Wow Frank that even looks good for BGM huh?

A few of those members bring decent snow as far west as I am.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:08 pm

amugs wrote:HOLY SHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!

Damn! Can't wait for the snowmaps!

by **2004blackwrx** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:09 pm

Starting to see what i feared all along models trending with the sweet spot south and east of me. All of last winter and parts of this it has been the trend. The city and long island get hit big and we are left with flurries in lower and mid hudson valley.

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:12 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Starting to see what i feared all along models trending with the sweet spot south and east of me. All of last winter and parts of this it has been the trend. The city and long island get hit big and we are left with flurries in lower and mid hudson valley.

If you see flurries with this Ill eat my hat!

by **hyde345** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:12 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Starting to see what i feared all along models trending with the sweet spot south and east of me. All of last winter and parts of this it has been the trend. The city and long island get hit big and we are left with flurries in lower and mid hudson valley.

We will get our share especially you in southern Dutchess. You will see a foot. Book it.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:14 pm

With all the runs today what is a good estimate for cnj coast?

by **Radz** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:15 pm

hyde345 wrote:
2004blackwrx wrote:Starting to see what i feared all along models trending with the sweet spot south and east of me. All of last winter and parts of this it has been the trend. The city and long island get hit big and we are left with flurries in lower and mid hudson valley.

We will get our share especially you in southern Dutchess. You will see a foot. Book it.

Difference in this storm are the dynamics and no sharp cut off north and west, all will benefit

by **jimv45** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:17 pm

Haven't been on in a while good to be back!! 2004black I am in Hopewell jct not far from you but have you looked at the maps on the site there are many very good hits of 12 plus Its been rough up here but this one might be very good we will see!!

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:20 pm

Wow sref and if it nudges just a bit nw nyc sees well overy a foot. Still hoping for euro senario but we will see. Sit in my car grocery store was not bad. They have a winter storm sign up. Ppl don't believe it and all the talk was 6 to 8 at most. Pff I didn't even comment.

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:21 pm

Oh and I'm in a tshirt and it's 59. Crazy as temps been going up not down. Was 55 around 1230.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:22 pm

GO WEST - FOR YOU RAY!!

by **jake732** Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:23 pm

is there a srefs snow map??

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