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Long Range Thread 14.0

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:27 pm

You know what else makes me think this may actually happen, is that people in the community are actually mentioning it, usually no one says anything I am the only one to know which means media and mets must feel its a very good shot, sorry not superstitious, if mother natiure is going to bring it she will, if not she won't.

Please someone post the surface and then snow maps for the Euro, very excited to see what it shows, never lose hope from one run, last night was windshield, if we get to unday and things do not look good then ill be nervous. Watch this beast trend stronger and closer to coast, as frank said it has roidzilla potential, and if a triple phase occurs oh boy!
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:03 pm

As a young pro met showed on twitter and another board - we bridge these two - NAO/EPO/WPO - the red areas in the Canadian/Greenland region we have a LOONNNNGGG Duration event of 20 hours plus - CMC and GFS were like 30 hours long!!


Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 65c808eb-94a0-4498-9941-8f2d188bf5e3.thumb.gif.f8c44806dc1c5cdd4c0350f11e03a02e

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Post by billg315 Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:10 pm

I remember one of the things that was notable about the 1993 March storm was how much certainty there was about it a few days out (which as we all know is unusual, even moreso 24 years ago). I'm starting to get the same sense with this storm. But, out of an abundance of caution, I'll stick to my 72 hour rule before going all-in. If I wake up Saturday morning and the models are still in alignment for this baby, I'll be stocking up on beer and Nutella.
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:19 pm

12Z euro H5 set up is beautiful by my little eye!! cyclops

PNA spike - LP dropping down - Moisture slug in the gulf - 50/50 low- NAO block

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:25 pm

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 58c19dd81c634

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:26 pm

Great euro run, the LP opened up and slipped about 50/75 miles east but still a great run.
Trough much sharper and slower.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:33 pm

I will have a blog for Tuesday's storm late tonight. I think it's time I actually pay attention and get back in winter mode. Even for a second.

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:35 pm

EURO!!! OOPS that includes the 3-4" on Friday's storm.

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 Booo.thumb.png.b00d3dd1ca44b7e66fe9630a68c407b3

IT SNOWS FROM TUESDAY early am through Wednesday evening!!
MOMMMA MIA!!


Last edited by amugs on Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:36 pm

There is some convective feedback on the models. That is when you know this storm is very powerful. Many branches of energy getting involved. If it all came together, it's a Frankzilla. But I think we're looking at a strong Godzilla here. Again, will have a blog later tonight. Like 10pm.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:40 pm

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_10
@amugs wrote:As a young pro met showed on twitter and another board - we bridge these two - NAO/EPO/WPO - the red areas in the Canadian/Greenland region we have a LOONNNNGGG Duration event of 20 hours plus - CMC and GFS were like 30 hours long!!


Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 65c808eb-94a0-4498-9941-8f2d188bf5e3.thumb.gif.f8c44806dc1c5cdd4c0350f11e03a02e
The EURO shows this too. My confidence for a major storm has increased.
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:43 pm

Models still show this evolution by Saturday 12Z I am all in BIG FRIGGIN TIME!!
I may get banned for my mental excitement from snow deprivation such actions - LMAO!!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:49 pm

EURO was very close to a historic run. Big improvements with the upper levels nonetheless. Good place to be right now.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:51 pm

Just look at this set up! Three bundles of energy from three branches of the Jet. Polar, PAC, STJ. If these come together just right, like Frank said Frankzilla potential, AKA BECS.

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 Img_4510

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:52 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO was very close to a historic run. Big improvements with the upper levels nonetheless. Good place to be right now.

Great place to be for sure. Euro conts to bring the timing of these pieces closer and closer.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:59 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Just look at this set up!  Three bundles of energy from three branches of the Jet. Polar, PAC, STJ. If these come together just right, like Frank said Frankzilla potential, AKA BECS.

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 Img_4510

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:59 pm

IF we get the trifecta of all three and close this sucker off in N GA or SC then Frank better have a plan for the server on this board - last time with Juno it was insane this time COULD be 100x worse !

Even without the full threesome it snowed for 30 plus hours on the Euro - imagine of it does and 18 of those where moderate to heavy!

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Post by billg315 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:03 pm

It is really something to see, after all the frustrating model inconsistency of the last couple years, how the models are so close together on this just under four days out. Not that they're exactly in line, but for the most part they all seem to be on board. I'll gladly deal with a debate this weekend over whether we're getting 10" or 30" as opposed to whether we're getting 20" or rain showers. lol.
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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:09 pm

can anyone explain y cnj on south on the euro has sooo much less snow then gfs and cmc?? almost a stupid storm for u according to euro
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Just look at this set up!  Three bundles of energy from three branches of the Jet. Polar, PAC, STJ. If these come together just right, like Frank said Frankzilla potential, AKA BECS.

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LOL Frank...but but.....


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:14 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:There is some convective feedback on the models. That is when you know this storm is very powerful. Many branches of energy getting involved. If it all came together, it's a Frankzilla. But I think we're looking at a strong Godzilla here. Again, will have a blog later tonight. Like 10pm.
Is that why it looks like the heaviest precip is offshore? I am not go get greedy and believe it would be a frankzilla but is there stilla a decent change this can go roid? And your not saying its impossible to become a frankzilla? I can't wait to read your writeup tonight. Just one question i'd like for you to answer now is I have a mandatory meeting at 3pm Tues, would you recommend I try to move it to Monday, because I probably can.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:There is some convective feedback on the models. That is when you know this storm is very powerful. Many branches of energy getting involved. If it all came together, it's a Frankzilla. But I think we're looking at a strong Godzilla here. Again, will have a blog later tonight. Like 10pm.
Is that why it looks like the heaviest precip is offshore? I am not go get greedy and believe it would be a frankzilla but is there stilla a decent change this can go roid? And your not saying its impossible to become a frankzilla? I can't wait to read your writeup tonight.  Just one question i'd like for you to answer now is I have a mandatory meeting at 3pm Tues, would you recommend I try to move it to Monday, because I probably can.

Why risk anything. Yes, move the meeting.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:13 pm

@jake732 wrote:can anyone explain y cnj on south on the euro has sooo much less snow then gfs and cmc?? almost a stupid storm for u according to euro

Watching 500mb frame by frame starting from 108 it appears the southern two bundles of energy phase whereas the polar energy is a tad late to the party. Because of this the main surface reflection is east of the BM.

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 Img_4510
Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 Img_4511


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by billg315 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:There is some convective feedback on the models. That is when you know this storm is very powerful. Many branches of energy getting involved. If it all came together, it's a Frankzilla. But I think we're looking at a strong Godzilla here. Again, will have a blog later tonight. Like 10pm.
Is that why it looks like the heaviest precip is offshore? I am not go get greedy and believe it would be a frankzilla but is there stilla a decent change this can go roid? And your not saying its impossible to become a frankzilla? I can't wait to read your writeup tonight.  Just one question i'd like for you to answer now is I have a mandatory meeting at 3pm Tues, would you recommend I try to move it to Monday, because I probably can.

Why not? We know the weather is fine for Monday. There is a chance of a major storm paralyzing the region Tuesday. And even if it "misses" we probably still get some inclement weather. Better safe than sorry.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:14 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Just look at this set up!  Three bundles of energy from three branches of the Jet. Polar, PAC, STJ. If these come together just right, like Frank said Frankzilla potential, AKA BECS.

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 2 Img_4510
When was the last time I heard any of you mention even the possibility of a BECS, never maybe the big letdown of Juno, but my excitment is growing, but I am still being cautious till we are around sat. That is an amazing setup and I wonder how the blizzard of 1993 looked at that hour out, 3 pieces? Hopefully it CAN all come together to give us all a wet dream snowstorm. LOL we track as you say!
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Post by Guest Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:18 pm

What's a wet dream?

Should I get the milk and bread?

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