Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:07 pm

Run the run, you can see as it comes sup the RS line actually pushes south through jersey into the last several frames, maybe this is what the lower resolution nam is not picking up on, those rates are so insane the column cools regardless.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017031200&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=631

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:08 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:WOW white plains not far from me, holy cow a max of 27.5 and mean of 16!! srefs

Wow! I'm in the process of opening a gastropub there, Jman! My contractors won't be able to get in the door! Btw, I moved to Port Chester from Manhattan. Officially a Westchesterite with you! ;-)

Boo thats technicall CT in our minds LOL, JK

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:09 pm

haha Jeff Smith gets a call from Accuweather as he is doing a FB live. He does not like off runs of the models, and does ot plan on putting out an accumulation map until tomorrow. He wants to see where the banding might set up. He is pretty much guaranteeing 6" for everyone

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:09 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Srefs,nam,rpm are all inside the BM all intensifying as well I'm not worry about temps with that track and intensity

thats what im saying and the 3km shows tat perfectly, the rates and look how intense the precip is being pulled off the ocean, I think this is going to be epic, just a hunch but all this worrying may been for nothing. I could b wrong but that 3km is certainly eye candy

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:10 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:haha Jeff Smith gets a call from Accuweather as he is doing a FB live. He does not like off runs of the models, and does ot plan on putting out an accumulation map until tomorrow. He wants to see where the banding might set up. He is pretty much guaranteeing 6" for everyone

00z is not a off hr run?

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:11 pm

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:11 pm

I'll take the 3kNAM. It's showing 15mm .(55" qpf )per hour. 4-6" per hour rates!!!

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:14 pm

NAM 4km very nice too well east, NAM 12km is on its own, this is so intense i think the resolution is going to have to be 4km and lower, hoot right to the rgem and hrrr.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I'll take the 3kNAM. It's showing 15mm .(55" qpf )per hour. 4-6" per hour rates!!!

Syo that band strethches from me to you, that would be insane, 4km looks similar in position and so does rpm, maybe we are get some agreement here with the SR, SR FTW!!

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:WOW white plains not far from me, holy cow a max of 27.5 and mean of 16!! srefs

Wow! I'm in the process of opening a gastropub there, Jman! My contractors won't be able to get in the door! Btw, I moved to Port Chester from Manhattan. Officially a Westchesterite with you! ;-)
Boo thats technicall CT in our minds LOL, JK

Haha, it's a great little city and "I can see CT from my house!" :-p

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:16 pm

The QPF doesn't show massive totals.

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 14 Nam3km10

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:18 pm

Wow syo with those rates and these winds u may just get ur power outage, glad they been out trimming like crazy here. this is 4km, 3km doesnt have a 850mb wind map but i imagine its very similar.

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 14 Nam4km10

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 14 Nam4km10

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:haha Jeff Smith gets a call from Accuweather as he is doing a FB live. He does not like off runs of the models, and does ot plan on putting out an accumulation map until tomorrow. He wants to see where the banding might set up. He is pretty much guaranteeing 6" for everyone
00z is not a off hr run?

No, 6z and 18z are off runs

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:19 pm

TheAresian wrote:The QPF doesn't show massive totals.

its only 7am there, the heaviest hasnt even really begun. I posted the snow map back, it has 6-12 by 60 hrs. at 7am.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:19 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:haha Jeff Smith gets a call from Accuweather as he is doing a FB live. He does not like off runs of the models, and does ot plan on putting out an accumulation map until tomorrow. He wants to see where the banding might set up. He is pretty much guaranteeing 6" for everyone
00z is not a off hr run?

No, 6z and 18z are off runs

Yes I know I thought you were saying he didnt like the 00z runs so was waiting, nvm

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:21 pm

TheAresian wrote:The QPF doesn't show massive totals.

That only goes out to Tuesday 7am.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:22 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
TheAresian wrote:The QPF doesn't show massive totals.

That only goes out to Tuesday 7am.

yep and as i showed a page or so back already has 6-12 in NYC area and more south and its barely going.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:23 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Rpm

rpm, 4km nam and 3km para nam all in same ballpark, 12km nam on its own.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:25 pm

GFS has initialized, lets see if its caught up at all, 18z totals were way low compared to the rpm, srefs and nams.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:32 pm

You can tell that the updated data has greatly influenced the NAM runs; (the 12k NAM is catching up). We will find out shortly if it has the same influence with the global models. Either we will have a strong consensus by the end of the night, or it will be Global vs. the SR models.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:34 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:You can tell that the updated data has greatly influenced the NAM runs; (the 12k NAM is catching up). We will find out shortly if it has the same influence with the global models. Either we will have a strong consensus by the end of the night, or it will be Global vs. the SR models.

would you say the 4km and the 3km are showing whats possible, i mean 4-6 hr rates on 3km, is that even possible here lol

by **mikeypizano** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:35 pm

Wow go to a concert and came back to 3 pages!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:35 pm

RGEM is....wow.

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 14 P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:37 pm

RGEM TOTAL SNOW March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 14 Sn_00010

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM is....wow.

WOW! Frank don't diss the girl for us! LOL do you believe the 3km with showing 4-6 inch snow rates, 6-12 by 7am?! May we have to put confidence back up to roidzilla MAYBE frankzilla?

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:40 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:RGEM TOTAL SNOW

def lower than other models at least for NYC, NE gets cobbered on the coast. 50 to 75 mm over LI wowzers.

by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:45 pm

Jman. The RGEM sit out 1.7" qpf for you. That's good

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