March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Oh so happy I moved from Edison to Hopatcong last year.....

Ratios

Visibility tomorrow during height of storm.

0

Hey Frank or those in the know.... what are you thinking for Millstone (western monmouth county by six flags). Def 12+?

Look how insane these cut-offs are on EURO snow map

Frank_Wx wrote:10:1 ratio snow map

HV obliterated.

Pretty much 5 days in a row the HV is crushed, how sick am I that I'm worried. Talk about supersticious and paranoid.

gambri wrote:Hey Frank or those in the know.... what are you thinking for Millstone (western monmouth county by six flags). Def 12+?

No...less.

oof thats rough for LI

NYC and especially NW parts of NYC seem to be ok on that

that cutoff is what i lived last years Blizzard the sun was out it sucks big time hope for those effected to have some jack Daniel's around it helps ease the pain

EURO is back to being really windy

This isn't language you see the NWS in Mount Holly use often for snow events:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as
a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on
Tuesday...

.A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those
who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will
become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday
Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and
west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are
likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of
northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour
are expected.

Nowcasting is going to be really fun. Is the SLP following a GFS or EURO esque track? That will be the $$$$$$$$$ question.

living on the jersey crap shore sucks!!!!!

Frank check the 850 and 700mb low on that, basically right over and closed off on NYC. Would indicate losing omega in DGZ and dry slot to the right. NEPA is looking to be the biggest jackpot as of now, but still EURO putting down a ridiculous QPF output. Oh and check the WV out everyone! Coming to life! Gravity waves seen in the STJ

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:10:1 ratio snow map

HV obliterated.

Pretty much 5 days in a row the HV is crushed, how sick am I that I'm worried. Talk about supersticious and paranoid.

This may be one of the funnier comments of this storm. Lol.

Frank what are the chances that this sucker could still jog to the East? It looks to me like a 20-30 mile shift is the difference between me getting nothing to 8"+

I will say, in more progressive patterns like this, storms usually end up a tick further east than modeled.

Frank are we now in the nothing category in northern ocean county or could we get an inch or two

Can someone explain. Will ratios be 10.1 up in Westchester for the whole storm?

billg315 wrote:This isn't language you see the NWS in Mount Holly use often for snow events:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as
a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on
Tuesday...

.A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those
who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will
become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday
Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and
west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are
likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of
northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour
are expected.

Holy cow.... life threatening? This is pretty serious.

So it's set in stone now, or is there still some adjustments possible? I thought you weren't supposed to live or die by any one model run, but that's quite a change from this morning's outlook.

nujerzeedevil wrote:Frank what are the chances that this sucker could still jog to the East? It looks to me like a 20-30 mile shift is the difference between me getting nothing to 8"+

Yes, a 30 mile difference will mean the world to some people. We just have to nowcast. There is not much I can say.

track17 wrote:Frank are we now in the nothing category in northern ocean county or could we get an inch or two

You could still get near 6 inches. I'll have to look at things better later on when I make my final call.

Vinnydula wrote:Can someone explain. Will ratios be 10.1 up in Westchester for the whole storm?

Yes.

Big win for the NAM which a lot of people wanted to toss because it showed a coastal hugger, and huge screw job for all areas s and e of NYC who went from a "triple phasing BECS" to a run of the mill noreaster for us. N and W of 5 boroughs CONGRATULATIONS!!

GreyBeard wrote:So it's set in stone now, or is there still some adjustments possible? I thought you weren't supposed to live or die by any one model run, but that's quite a change from this morning's outlook.

It's more than one model run at this point, and the upper level jet streak structure supports a tucked in track. I would love to see a jog east of 20 miles so more people cash in, and it's possible, but we have to nowcast.

Frank_Wx wrote:Nowcasting is going to be really fun. Is the SLP following a GFS or EURO esque track? That will be the $$$$$$$$$ question.

We are going to need lots of updates on current low pressure mesoscale maps thats for sure. Amazingly I still receive 18+ on the EURO where Im at in essex county. I will be praying big time tomorrow Im able to stay away from pingers and that dreaded dry slot.

syosnow94 wrote:Big win for the NAM which a lot of people wanted to toss because it showed a coastal hugger, and huge screw job for all areas s and e of NYC who went from a "triple phasing BECS" to a run of the mill noreaster for us. N and W of 5 boroughs CONGRATULATIONS!!

Please stop. Here is your NAM from 3 days ago. The low is 1000mb and over NJ. Not even an inch of snow for LI. Nowhere near close to what will happen.