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July Disco/ Observations

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Math23x7
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:32 am

docstox12 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:I wasn't raised on air conditioning either. I get overruled by my wife and kids who say they are melting. I tell them that is what we have the pool for. Anyone who as a kid swam in ponds or streams knows the out of the ground water temp is cool, about 55. Get a foot down in the water and you feel the cold. Refreshing.

56.8 degrees in late July.

Never had AC in our NYC apartment as a kid, you slept on the fire escape on hot nights.Didn't have it until I was 16 in the house in Fort Lee.Bus and subways had no AC.none of my schools were air conditioned.The teachers would open up all the big windows and you would pray for a small breeze,LOL.You went to a movie theatre for an escape.They would have a sign "Air Conditioned Inside" with the blue and white icicles,LOL.They would leave the doors open so you would get a blast of cold air walking by on the sidewalk.How did we EVER survive,LOL.THIS, plus no seat belts, no bike helmets, cigarette smoke every where you went,lol.

I grew up without ac only a fan and it was awful while my parents basked in their room with a window AC. Is that child abuse lol. I used to strip my bed to the mattress get down to my skivies or less lol and lay on it sprawled out hoping for a t storm. Yeah we had lakes but had drive 15 min or so but man u hit those cold spots ahhhh. But I like ac now but u sit too long it starts to feel weird.


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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:57 pm

As chilly as it may be for me today, it was even chillier a few weeks ago when I was in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Ireland. Outside of two days during the 10-day trip, it was nonstop overcast/wind with occasional rain and daytime temperatures in the mid 50s. Then for two days, the sun came out and it was in the 60s.

I vividly remember at the age of 10 during the summer of 2000 experiencing a prolonged stretch of overcast weather conditions here in New York from Monday, July 24th through Friday, August 4th. A couple of those days had highs in the 60s. That July was tied for the fourth coolest on record, even cooler than July 2009.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:38 pm

Math23x7 wrote:As chilly as it may be for me today, it was even chillier a few weeks ago when I was in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Ireland.  Outside of two days during the 10-day trip, it was nonstop overcast/wind with occasional rain and daytime temperatures in the mid 50s.  Then for two days, the sun came out and it was in the 60s.

I vividly remember at the age of 10 during the summer of 2000 experiencing a prolonged stretch of overcast weather conditions here in New York from Monday, July 24th through Friday, August 4th.  A couple of those days had highs in the 60s.  That July was tied for the fourth coolest on record, even cooler than July 2009.

Your memory and date recall ability to specific events continues to baffle me, I cannot find it in weather history by my parents are married 42 years ago on June 11th. My parents said it was like a hurricane on their wedding day (guess it is good luck, 42 years is quite something) and had a eye but it was not a actual hurricane. What storm was this i'd like to see if it was recorded as a notable storm?


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:41 pm

I thought it was Fri but now looks like overnight Fri into Sat looks downright ugly on 18z GFS, 2-4 inches of rain in a pretty short amount of time, another LP forms as it heads off coast.

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Gfs_ap10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:45 pm

CMC pretty nasty too, gosh this is the summer of weekend rain!!

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Gem_ap10
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:54 pm

Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:56 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to

What does Euro show for rain totals?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to

What does Euro show for rain totals?

Not sure but look at the RGEM!July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Pr_00010
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:30 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah other boards talking about it and other models are in board to

What does Euro show for rain totals?

Not sure but look at the RGEM!July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Pr_00010

OMG if it were winter we would all be jumping and peeing our pants lol

Imagine if we ever saw black for a winter storm LOL, 250mm = 98 inches 10:1!
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:As chilly as it may be for me today, it was even chillier a few weeks ago when I was in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Ireland.  Outside of two days during the 10-day trip, it was nonstop overcast/wind with occasional rain and daytime temperatures in the mid 50s.  Then for two days, the sun came out and it was in the 60s.

I vividly remember at the age of 10 during the summer of 2000 experiencing a prolonged stretch of overcast weather conditions here in New York from Monday, July 24th through Friday, August 4th.  A couple of those days had highs in the 60s.  That July was tied for the fourth coolest on record, even cooler than July 2009.

Your memory and date recall ability to specific events continues to baffle me, I cannot find it in weather history by my parents are married 42 years ago on June 11th. My parents said it was like a hurricane on their wedding day (guess it is good luck, 42 years is quite something) and had a eye but it was not a actual hurricane. What storm was this i'd like to see if it was recorded as a notable storm?

42 years ago this past June 11th or the next June 11th? The June 11th 42 years ago this year (1975) was a Wednesday. But the June 11th 42 years ago next year (1976) was a Friday.

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Post by amugs Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:42 pm

Euro is on board as well - and where did this low originate from.............anyone...............Vodoo Econmics?? Buehler? Frye?

INDIA !! Yes India from the monsoon season. June 27thish is originated and has worked its way across the spaceship planet we call EARTH!!

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_5


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Post by amugs Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:52 pm

12 CMC WOWZA!! If it verifies

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Gem_apcpn_neus_15

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:23 pm

amugs wrote:12  CMC WOWZA!! If it verifies

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Gem_apcpn_neus_15
Posted it above mugs, your late to the party LOL
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:24 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:As chilly as it may be for me today, it was even chillier a few weeks ago when I was in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Ireland.  Outside of two days during the 10-day trip, it was nonstop overcast/wind with occasional rain and daytime temperatures in the mid 50s.  Then for two days, the sun came out and it was in the 60s.

I vividly remember at the age of 10 during the summer of 2000 experiencing a prolonged stretch of overcast weather conditions here in New York from Monday, July 24th through Friday, August 4th.  A couple of those days had highs in the 60s.  That July was tied for the fourth coolest on record, even cooler than July 2009.

Your memory and date recall ability to specific events continues to baffle me, I cannot find it in weather history by my parents are married 42 years ago on June 11th. My parents said it was like a hurricane on their wedding day (guess it is good luck, 42 years is quite something) and had a eye but it was not a actual hurricane. What storm was this i'd like to see if it was recorded as a notable storm?

42 years ago this past June 11th or the next June 11th?  The June 11th 42 years ago this year (1975) was a Wednesday.  But the June 11th 42 years ago next year (1976) was a Friday.

Sorry 42 years ago June 11th 2017. There was a big storm, I think they were in MA somewhere along the coast.
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Post by amugs Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:26 am

Gfs

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Img_2026

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:47 pm

EPS spread for our winter storm I mean July coastal wth I have never tracked such outside of a trop system this time of year. Pre lude to winter???
DE, S and CNJ, LI AND NYC look to get it good with a sharper cut off as you move NW. Parts of NNJ as well but say Wester Passaic County cut off on NW from the latest. These seems to jog NW as they approach. Time will tell.

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Img_2027

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:59 pm

amugs wrote:EPS spread for our winter storm I mean July coastal wth I have never tracked such outside of a trop system this time of year. Pre lude to winter???
DE, S and CNJ, LI AND NYC look to get it good with a sharper cut off as you move NW. Parts of NNJ as well but say Wester Passaic County cut off on NW from the latest. These seems to jog NW as they approach. Time will tell. I know kinda weird don't usually see this. And if what u said was right we will be tracking tropics in coming weeks.

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Img_2027
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Post by dkodgis Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:42 pm

I am going to guess that we will have cooler weather and wet wet wet for about what, the next two weeks? Aug may warm up in the middle?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:46 pm

Euro misses the area pretty much entirely insanely heavy rains to the South.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Euro misses the area pretty much entirely insanely heavy rains to the South.

I wouldnt exactly call 1-2.5" of rain entirely missing the area. lol. With decent blocking over Greenland, a 50/50 low and a ridge in the west dont be surpirsed to see this sucker trend a bit wetter and stronger. There is a deep subtropical moisture transport connection, and very strong vertical velocities being depicted as the LP comes off the coast. PWATS are impressive as well. Def a flash flood or urban flooding concerns for later Friday into Saturday. We will see where the cutoffs are.

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Ecmwf_10
July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Ecmwf_11



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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:47 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro misses the area pretty much entirely insanely heavy rains to the South.

I wouldnt exactly call 1-2.5" of rain entirely missing the area. lol.  With decent blocking over Greenland, a 50/50 low and a ridge in the west dont be surpirsed to see this sucker trend a bit wetter and stronger.  There is a deep subtropical moisture transport connection, and very strong vertical velocities being depicted as the LP comes off the coast.  PWATS are impressive as well.  Def a flash flood or urban flooding concerns for later Friday into Saturday.  We will see where the cutoffs are.    

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Ecmwf_10
July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Ecmwf_11



Your totally right, I saw something and I forget where that it looked way to far south to give us heavy rain. and yeah kinda like with our winter storms going more NW with time lol
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:28 am

This feature is key to the storm. The GB or Greenland Block if is strengthen s as indicated by the GFS then the system will slow down and possibly stall it allowing it mature into a stronger storm just off the coast. Time for me meso scale models like RGEM and Hi Res Nam

July Disco/ Observations - Page 5 Img_2029

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Post by dkodgis Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:12 am

Bill Evans has red over Fri-Sat with the word "Alert". He probably knows something from the driver of the food vendor truck parked outside Channel 7. Razz Laughing
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Post by ak926 Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:01 am

So the heavy rain will be to our south ? I'm over 8 inches for the month so far !

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:26 am

Umm sr models 12 km nam are bad showing 6 to 10 inches just south NYC 3km nam shows this over NYC and southern Westchester yikes!. They cleaning the storm drains here which they never do. Wow this could be epic rain.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:31 am

Still some differences in placement of upper level jet over NE, LP intensity and position. It does look like both GFS and Euro are indicating a mostly positively tilted trough; however, the ULL seems to cut off from the main flow and sits for a day or so.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:33 am

jmanley32 wrote:Umm sr models 12 km nam are bad showing 6 to 10 inches just south NYC 3km nam shows this over NYC and southern Westchester yikes!. They cleaning the storm drains here which they never do. Wow this could be epic rain.

Keep in mind NAM bias tends to over do precip, but again there are some decent dynamics to work with here from the LLJ to the south and the ULJ to the N. Most likely S of NYC metro but someone will see significant rain.

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