NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Page 5 of 21 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 13 ... 21  Next

Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:16 pm

@TheAresian wrote:I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.
I knew what you meant..I had just heard about Barbuda..and responded....this is so sad and scary for those in the line of fire..hope all works out for you daughter!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2904
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:23 pm

Holllllllly

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Rbtop-animated

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19989
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:24 pm

San Juan, PR getting rocked

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 JUA_loop

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19989
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:30 pm

WOW
http://www.mahobeachcam.com/
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:32 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@TheAresian wrote:I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.
I knew what you meant..I had just heard about Barbuda..and responded....this is so sad and scary for those in the line of fire..hope all works out for you daughter!!

Thanks. She's watching it closely. Barring a miracle shift east, she's evacuating in 48 hours. This isn't the storm to take chances with.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:San Juan, PR getting rocked

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 JUA_loop
At least it did not make direct landfall, what do you think winds are in san juan 125? Thats a total guess.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17925
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by algae888 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:38 pm

Jman San Juan is in the 50s and the Northeast part of the island had a gust to 72 miles per hour. That's per The Weather Channel a couple of hours ago. Don't forget those strong winds are just in a very small area. Rains and mudslides are probably going to cause the most damage there
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5222
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:43 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEiuAAVwAAI4uS

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19989
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:45 pm

St. Marten also decimated

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEEJ25VoAAzj5M

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19989
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by aiannone Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:53 pm

Why are the models showing Jose moving backwards towards africa? Having trouble dealing with it because of Irma?
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4245
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by amugs Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:07 pm

ERC happening and once this does bang zoom she will intensify, if that can be imagined!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJE3TYiVAAATP8l

You can tell by an outer (yellow) band from teh eye wall is forming
ERC = Eyewall Replacement Cycle

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12057
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:12 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEiuAAVwAAI4uS
Who is this person? Reliable source, what does she mean the "line"? If thats true utterly terrible.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17925
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:14 pm

@algae888 wrote:Jman San Juan is in the 50s and the Northeast part of the island had a gust to 72 miles per hour. That's per The Weather Channel a couple of hours ago. Don't forget those strong winds are just in a very small area. Rains and mudslides are probably going to cause the most damage there
Thank goodness, yes your right, those winds are in the eyewall duh, but yeah mudsleds will be bad but i do not think it will be nearly as bad as barbuda or st. maarten.  I see now why no one would ever want to experience this.  Those pics are hard to look at.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17925
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:16 pm

@amugs wrote:ERC happening and once this does bang zoom she will intensify, if that can be imagined!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJE3TYiVAAATP8l

You can tell by an outer (yellow) band from teh eye wall is forming
ERC = Eyewall Replacement Cycle
Well GFS has been steadfast on going sub 900mb, wouldnt take a lot for that to happen, wonder if we get 200mph winds.  I heard this is strongest hurricane wasn't matthew 205mph at one pt?  Or is it just in this particular region.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17925
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:21 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 RAD_TJUA_N0R_ANI.gif.1942b5617a1516ec2cf5835ca34e40b2

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 59b05db096467_SAT_CAR_VIS_ANI(1).gif.0f9de32a0a87cfc535462daae196ef17

That Radar loop is indicative of concentric rings Frank, aka double eye wall.  Likely the start of another EWRC.  

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6848
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:24 pm

RGEM range...like the NAM geek

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Rgem_t10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6848
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:36 pm

About how long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jwalsh Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEiuAAVwAAI4uS
Who is this person? Reliable source, what does she mean the "line"? If thats true utterly terrible.
The first two sentences I believe are correct. The PM of Antigua and Barbuda was making a speech about the damage to the latter island, never mentioned anything about 1000+ deaths. She was referring to a line of the speech which I'm assuming she wildly misheard, since only one fatality has been reported in Barbuda. Nevertheless, the PM still said that the island is "practically uninhabitable "
jwalsh
jwalsh

Posts : 60
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-18
Location : Commack, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:55 pm

https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/videos/1505370289562190/
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2904
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:16 pm

Recon found 909mb!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17925
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:21 pm

Yet they marked 916mb huh.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17925
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by amugs Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:21 pm

UT OH WOW
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 909.1 mb (26.85 inHg)

What I tell ya she was strengthening f it let's get sub 900 we are getting that big time in here path over 85* plus bath water that a deep with latent heat and no shear. 

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12057
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:25 pm

@amugs wrote:UT OH WOW
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 909.1 mb (26.85 inHg)

What I tell ya she was strengthening f it let's get sub 900 we are getting that big time in here path over 85* plus bath water that a deep with latent heat and no shear. 
Yeah they for some reason did not note that as the pressure though.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17925
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:26 pm

Miami beach mandatory evacuations start tom
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2904
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:32 pm

Just saw someone post this on FB.

Irma has definitely been moving between 290-295 over the past 3 hours (roughly gains .3 in latitude for every .7 in longitude):

For example:

11AM 18.2N, 64.0 W
2 PM 18.5N, 64.7 W
5PM 18.8N, 65.4 W
8PM 19.1N, 66.1 W

At that rate it will put Irma roughly at 23N, 75W which is quite close to the easternmost solutions out there. Already, it is near the northernmost edge from the cone put forth 9 hours ago so I expect a 50-75 mile eastward shift at the 00Z due to the more northern initial position.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6848
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 21 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 13 ... 21  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum