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Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:14 pm

algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Guys watch the satellite loop.  It is obvious that Irma is no longer moving west but now WNW. Almost NW. The turn has started early maybe which would put areas further north in jeopardy no??
As currently modeled at 500 MB there's no way Irma can directly affect our area. If you extrapolated the nam it looks to interact with the departing trough and will probably steer it out to sea. The ridge building into the Northeast and Great Lakes is just too strong for her to penetrate the only way I see her getting up here is if she slows down the ridge slides East and she connects with the trough dropping out of central Canada. That's still a possibility time will tell

I agree it won't affect us directly the way it looks right now. I'm hoping for a ton of rain from her and that she pulls Jose in.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:16 pm

Snow88 wrote:It sucks that there is a big high pressure in the northeast because Irma would have came right up the coast.
Still could change, look at the changes in the upper levels that have changed already, and its very possible Irma slows down, and syo the WNW was always portrayed, look at NHC cone, its WNW until FL.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:16 pm

TheAresian wrote:I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.
I knew what you meant..I had just heard about Barbuda..and responded....this is so sad and scary for those in the line of fire..hope all works out for you daughter!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:23 pm

Holllllllly

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Rbtop-animated

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:24 pm

San Juan, PR getting rocked

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 JUA_loop

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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:30 pm

WOW
http://www.mahobeachcam.com/
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:32 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
TheAresian wrote:I worded that poorly. I meant that she's moving through the islands without weakening herself by making making landfall, thus doing massive damage while still maintaining her current strength.
I knew what you meant..I had just heard about Barbuda..and responded....this is so sad and scary for those in the line of fire..hope all works out for you daughter!!

Thanks. She's watching it closely. Barring a miracle shift east, she's evacuating in 48 hours. This isn't the storm to take chances with.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:San Juan, PR getting rocked

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 JUA_loop
At least it did not make direct landfall, what do you think winds are in san juan 125? Thats a total guess.
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Post by algae888 Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:38 pm

Jman San Juan is in the 50s and the Northeast part of the island had a gust to 72 miles per hour. That's per The Weather Channel a couple of hours ago. Don't forget those strong winds are just in a very small area. Rains and mudslides are probably going to cause the most damage there
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:43 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEiuAAVwAAI4uS

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:45 pm

St. Marten also decimated

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEEJ25VoAAzj5M

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Post by aiannone Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:53 pm

Why are the models showing Jose moving backwards towards africa? Having trouble dealing with it because of Irma?
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:07 pm

ERC happening and once this does bang zoom she will intensify, if that can be imagined!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJE3TYiVAAATP8l

You can tell by an outer (yellow) band from teh eye wall is forming
ERC = Eyewall Replacement Cycle

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEiuAAVwAAI4uS
Who is this person? Reliable source, what does she mean the "line"? If thats true utterly terrible.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:14 pm

algae888 wrote:Jman San Juan is in the 50s and the Northeast part of the island had a gust to 72 miles per hour. That's per The Weather Channel a couple of hours ago. Don't forget those strong winds are just in a very small area. Rains and mudslides are probably going to cause the most damage there
Thank goodness, yes your right, those winds are in the eyewall duh, but yeah mudsleds will be bad but i do not think it will be nearly as bad as barbuda or st. maarten.  I see now why no one would ever want to experience this.  Those pics are hard to look at.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:16 pm

amugs wrote:ERC happening and once this does bang zoom she will intensify, if that can be imagined!!

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJE3TYiVAAATP8l

You can tell by an outer (yellow) band from teh eye wall is forming
ERC = Eyewall Replacement Cycle
Well GFS has been steadfast on going sub 900mb, wouldnt take a lot for that to happen, wonder if we get 200mph winds.  I heard this is strongest hurricane wasn't matthew 205mph at one pt?  Or is it just in this particular region.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 RAD_TJUA_N0R_ANI.gif.1942b5617a1516ec2cf5835ca34e40b2

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 59b05db096467_SAT_CAR_VIS_ANI(1).gif.0f9de32a0a87cfc535462daae196ef17

That Radar loop is indicative of concentric rings Frank, aka double eye wall.  Likely the start of another EWRC.  

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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:24 pm

RGEM range...like the NAM geek

Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 Rgem_t10

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:36 pm

About how long does an eye wall replacement cycle take?

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Post by jwalsh Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2 - Page 5 DJEiuAAVwAAI4uS
Who is this person? Reliable source, what does she mean the "line"? If thats true utterly terrible.
The first two sentences I believe are correct. The PM of Antigua and Barbuda was making a speech about the damage to the latter island, never mentioned anything about 1000+ deaths. She was referring to a line of the speech which I'm assuming she wildly misheard, since only one fatality has been reported in Barbuda. Nevertheless, the PM still said that the island is "practically uninhabitable "
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:55 pm

https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/videos/1505370289562190/
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:16 pm

Recon found 909mb!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:21 pm

Yet they marked 916mb huh.
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:21 pm

UT OH WOW
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 909.1 mb (26.85 inHg)

What I tell ya she was strengthening f it let's get sub 900 we are getting that big time in here path over 85* plus bath water that a deep with latent heat and no shear. 

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:25 pm

amugs wrote:UT OH WOW
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 909.1 mb (26.85 inHg)

What I tell ya she was strengthening f it let's get sub 900 we are getting that big time in here path over 85* plus bath water that a deep with latent heat and no shear. 
Yeah they for some reason did not note that as the pressure though.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:26 pm

Miami beach mandatory evacuations start tom
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:32 pm

Just saw someone post this on FB.

Irma has definitely been moving between 290-295 over the past 3 hours (roughly gains .3 in latitude for every .7 in longitude):

For example:

11AM 18.2N, 64.0 W
2 PM 18.5N, 64.7 W
5PM 18.8N, 65.4 W
8PM 19.1N, 66.1 W

At that rate it will put Irma roughly at 23N, 75W which is quite close to the easternmost solutions out there. Already, it is near the northernmost edge from the cone put forth 9 hours ago so I expect a 50-75 mile eastward shift at the 00Z due to the more northern initial position.

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