2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Wow 910mb...Looks about like the Euro did at 00z honestly but stronger.


jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Just a note 12z CMC is east now of tip of FL and headed for a turn,. GFS through 201 is way slower, past runs it was already up here still way down south and barely moving.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nation
I like that 


rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
much slower today
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one


rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I still do not see guidance taking it into GOM, I mean no disrespect to your ideas and am nowhere near as smart about weather but nothing really seems to be showing that all models seem to be coming North and east.rb924119 wrote:Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nationI like that
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
aiannone wrote:much slower today
Indicative of a strengthening system. When their forward speed decreases that means trouble.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
What is that like 180mph cat 5? Me too not gonna lie lolrb924119 wrote:905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one![]()
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
GFS is now growing in size too.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
CMC is parallelling coast looks like it would hit tip OBX and either head north or NE.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
The high latitude blocking is not going to let this beast go ots
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

CMC at 240, everything is slowing down in time now
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:What is that like 180mph cat 5? Me too not gonna lie lolrb924119 wrote:905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one![]()
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Probably gusts, sure. It's very difficult to try to equate barometric pressure to wind speed. Every system is different, first off, and secondly, I don't think there's a way to physically do it. I've never seen an equation for it lol Not saying it doesn't exist, but I've never heard of equating pressure to wind speed directly. It's just like radar reflectivity. Technically, reflectivity DOES NOT tell you anything about precipitation intensity, it tells you about the precipitation itself but we back out precipitation rates through other methods. Same kind of deal here.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Ugg we back to a 10-15 day time frame for a possible landfall with GFS, watch we track this till Oct. lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Oh I know, my pt was thats one hell of a high end cat 5.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:What is that like 180mph cat 5? Me too not gonna lie lolrb924119 wrote:905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one![]()
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Probably gusts, sure. It's very difficult to try to equate barometric pressure to wind speed. Every system is different, first off, and secondly, I don't think there's a way to physically do it. I've never seen an equation for it lol Not saying it doesn't exist, but I've never heard of equating pressure to wind speed directly. It's just like radar reflectivity. Technically, reflectivity DOES NOT tell you anything about precipitation intensity, it tells you about the precipitation itself but we back out precipitation rates through other methods. Same kind of deal here.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:I still do not see guidance taking it into GOM, I mean no disrespect to your ideas and am nowhere near as smart about weather but nothing really seems to be showing that all models seem to be coming North and east.rb924119 wrote:Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nationI like that
You're entitled to your opinion lol I would never shut anybody down for not seeing something the same way I do! I don't take it take it personally, trust me lol Just like I said earlier, patience, and I'm going to see how things evolve from my first guest. I'm trusting the pattern (or how I see the pattern and its evolution) right now, not the models.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
This looks like if it doesnt go OTS, itds back to a hit somewhere near cape cod.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Gotcha, and that my friend is why you are able to deduce what u are and I am not.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I still do not see guidance taking it into GOM, I mean no disrespect to your ideas and am nowhere near as smart about weather but nothing really seems to be showing that all models seem to be coming North and east.rb924119 wrote:Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nationI like that
You're entitled to your opinion lol I would never shut anybody down for not seeing something the same way I do! I don't take it take it personally, trust me lol Just like I said earlier, patience, and I'm going to see how things evolve from my first guest. I'm trusting the pattern (or how I see the pattern and its evolution) right now, not the models.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I think the GFS is another Mid-Atlantic or New England special lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
That northern jet streak at hour 234 looks like it may be tugging Irma towards the coastline. Shades of Sandy.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Geeze 252 hrs thing reaches from coast to almost bermuda, sandy size.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Look at that way offshore and we are already getting TS conditions, and it does look like its pulling west a bit. yikes, but we are way out of any decent range now.


jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Nope, somehow continues northwest instead of west. Goes right up the Hudson lol
Correction, along but EAST of the Hudson......Easier to see on a zoomed in look ahaha New England gets it this time.
Correction, along but EAST of the Hudson......Easier to see on a zoomed in look ahaha New England gets it this time.
Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:51 pm; edited 2 times in total
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Irma mauls long Island ala 1938 express.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Ha RI/Mass landfall, just crazy, way too far off though, if this really slows that much we have more than another week to go more like 2.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I take two things away from today's model runs one it looks to be a very slow mover will probably 2 weeks away from Impact isn't that fun. And two as Frank has stated even if it's 400 miles off the coast with that strong high pressure to the north we would still see tropical storm-force winds here without her ever getting close to us. Still a lot to be determined but as the truough lifts out around day 8 the flow really becomes very weak so I can see her Meandering somewhere near Florida or the Bahamas for several days
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