2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
+31
Quietace
Dtone
freezerburn
EnyapWeather
Sanchize06
jake732
Grselig
CyphaPSU
carbomb31
jwalsh
Math23x7
SoulSingMG
GreyBeard
clownloach
sroc4
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
frank 638
amugs
Snow88
hyde345
algae888
skinsfan1177
RJB8525
jmanley32
nutleyblizzard
Radz
weatherwatchermom
aiannone
rb924119
Frank_Wx
35 posters
Page 3 of 19
Page 3 of 19 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11 ... 19
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Ha RI/Mass landfall, just crazy, way too far off though, if this really slows that much we have more than another week to go more like 2.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I take two things away from today's model runs one it looks to be a very slow mover will probably 2 weeks away from Impact isn't that fun. And two as Frank has stated even if it's 400 miles off the coast with that strong high pressure to the north we would still see tropical storm-force winds here without her ever getting close to us. Still a lot to be determined but as the truough lifts out around day 8 the flow really becomes very weak so I can see her Meandering somewhere near Florida or the Bahamas for several days
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
That will really keep the US on its toes, a cat 5 just flirting off the coast, beaches are toast even far off shore, i cant imagine the swells this would produce!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
At 252hrs (truncation) it drops out of hi-res so in all actuality the pressure is much likely a lot lower.hyde345 wrote:GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:At 252hrs (truncation) it drops out of hi-res so in all actuality the pressure is much likely a lot lower.hyde345 wrote:GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.
Thats right, I forgot that. I still don't trust GFS beyond 5 days.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Oh yes I agree, we are far from the real solution, as Al said 2 weeks is possible *no not fun lol) so we just gotta wait and see.hyde345 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:At 252hrs (truncation) it drops out of hi-res so in all actuality the pressure is much likely a lot lower.hyde345 wrote:GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.
Thats right, I forgot that. I still don't trust GFS beyond 5 days.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
ok fellas have a good afternoon..hope you all get out and enjoy this beautiful day...what time should we meet back here?
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3880
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
weatherwatchermom wrote:ok fellas have a good afternoon..hope you all get out and enjoy this beautiful day...what time should we meet back here?
EURO Op begins running at about 1:50pm, and the GFS Ensembles will come out at about 1:30pm lol EURO Ensembles won't be out until about 5pm, along with the Canadian Ensembles, and the 18z GFS Op begins running around 6 (I think?), with that Ensemble running at about 7:30-8-ish lol So it's up to you haha What do you want to see? lmao Enjoy your day, mom!
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Euro running buckle up
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
GFS Ensembles are bimodally distributed between along/off the East Coast and into the Gulf, FWIW
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
There are more members east, though. probably 70/30 split.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
east yes lol, just saw no not that far east many OTS looks like, also good agreement up to east of bahamas through next fri, thats pretty amazing.rb924119 wrote:There are more members east, though. probably 70/30 split.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.
It's going to continue to, all of the globals are, because they don't have the resolution for this.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
How come they are eventually able to drop into the low 900s?rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.
It's going to continue to, all of the globals are, because they don't have the resolution for this.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Hour 72 same spot weaker by 6mb.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:How come they are eventually able to drop into the low 900s?rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.
It's going to continue to, all of the globals are, because they don't have the resolution for this.
I think it's because at that point they are depicting a much larger circulation, so they can pick up on that. But right now, the system is so compact, they can't "see" the detail of circulation. They know it's there, but without constant data from dropsondes being fed into them they can't pick up the intricacies on their own.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
EURO already has the -EPO at 96 versus 00z run lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Kinda decent agreement for so far out haha
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4823
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Euro further north this run...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
intensifying again, look at that eye, might go back up to cat 3 sooner.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb-animated.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb-animated.gif
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
To me the eur has to gfs global
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
Thats what I think,but boy would that be the revival for the GFS this year after doing so badly. And its still so fr off.skinsfan1177 wrote:To me the eur has to gfs global
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread
jmanley32 wrote:I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Page 3 of 19 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11 ... 19
Page 3 of 19
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum