Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:49 pm

Ha RI/Mass landfall, just crazy, way too far off though, if this really slows that much we have more than another week to go more like 2.

by **algae888** Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:53 pm

I take two things away from today's model runs one it looks to be a very slow mover will probably 2 weeks away from Impact isn't that fun. And two as Frank has stated even if it's 400 miles off the coast with that strong high pressure to the north we would still see tropical storm-force winds here without her ever getting close to us. Still a lot to be determined but as the truough lifts out around day 8 the flow really becomes very weak so I can see her Meandering somewhere near Florida or the Bahamas for several days

by **hyde345** Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:59 pm

GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:59 pm

That will really keep the US on its toes, a cat 5 just flirting off the coast, beaches are toast even far off shore, i cant imagine the swells this would produce!

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:00 pm

hyde345 wrote:GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.

At 252hrs (truncation) it drops out of hi-res so in all actuality the pressure is much likely a lot lower.

by **hyde345** Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.
At 252hrs (truncation) it drops out of hi-res so in all actuality the pressure is much likely a lot lower.

Thats right, I forgot that. I still don't trust GFS beyond 5 days.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:10 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:GFS was struggling in the latter part of that run. How does it go from from 910MB to 949 in 12 hours from hour 240 to 252? Maybe some gradual weakening but thats crazy. Still way, way too early to know the real track.
At 252hrs (truncation) it drops out of hi-res so in all actuality the pressure is much likely a lot lower.

Thats right, I forgot that. I still don't trust GFS beyond 5 days.

Oh yes I agree, we are far from the real solution, as Al said 2 weeks is possible *no not fun lol) so we just gotta wait and see.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:11 pm

ok fellas have a good afternoon..hope you all get out and enjoy this beautiful day...what time should we meet back here?

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:28 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:ok fellas have a good afternoon..hope you all get out and enjoy this beautiful day...what time should we meet back here?

EURO Op begins running at about 1:50pm, and the GFS Ensembles will come out at about 1:30pm lol EURO Ensembles won't be out until about 5pm, along with the Canadian Ensembles, and the 18z GFS Op begins running around 6 (I think?), with that Ensemble running at about 7:30-8-ish lol So it's up to you haha What do you want to see? lmao Enjoy your day, mom!

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

Euro running buckle up

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

GFS Ensembles are bimodally distributed between along/off the East Coast and into the Gulf, FWIW

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:00 pm

There are more members east, though. probably 70/30 split.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:There are more members east, though. probably 70/30 split.

east yes lol, just saw no not that far east many OTS looks like, also good agreement up to east of bahamas through next fri, thats pretty amazing.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:03 pm

Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.

It's going to continue to, all of the globals are, because they don't have the resolution for this.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.

It's going to continue to, all of the globals are, because they don't have the resolution for this.

How come they are eventually able to drop into the low 900s?

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:09 pm

Hour 72 same spot weaker by 6mb.

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro is still initializing really weak not even where its at now.

It's going to continue to, all of the globals are, because they don't have the resolution for this.
How come they are eventually able to drop into the low 900s?

I think it's because at that point they are depicting a much larger circulation, so they can pick up on that. But right now, the system is so compact, they can't "see" the detail of circulation. They know it's there, but without constant data from dropsondes being fed into them they can't pick up the intricacies on their own.

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:18 pm

EURO already has the -EPO at 96 versus 00z run lol

by **aiannone** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:26 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 3 11l_ge10

Kinda decent agreement for so far out haha

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:32 pm

Euro further north this run...

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:33 pm

Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:38 pm

intensifying again, look at that eye, might go back up to cat 3 sooner.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:40 pm

To me the eur has to gfs global

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:41 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:To me the eur has to gfs global

Thats what I think,but boy would that be the revival for the GFS this year after doing so badly. And its still so fr off.

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast
I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east. This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?

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