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2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:47 am

say hello to Nate officially

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 Al162010
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:10 am

GEFS
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 Gefs_AL16_2017100506

EURO
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 Eps_SIXTEEN_current

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Post by Nyi1058 Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:35 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@Nyi1058 wrote:Hey fellas I'm supposed to head to charlotte this weekend for Sunday's NASCAR race , what's the deal with this damn thing ugh!!!!!!

I guess plan to stay an extra day, not sure if they are going to get it in, who's your favorite driver? I'm a Truex fan since Carl left.
Ive been a kenseth fan, but def like truex as well! im staying til Monday night , supposed to fly out at 730 pm.


can anybody help me out here!!!!!!!!!! im leaving tomorrow am from long island! Im going with a buddy of mine whos almost ready to cancel , I don't wanna!!!!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:44 pm

My son has mixed emotions about a hurricane with his name on it... NYI...hope you have safe travels!!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:40 pm

@Nyi1058 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@Nyi1058 wrote:Hey fellas I'm supposed to head to charlotte this weekend for Sunday's NASCAR race , what's the deal with this damn thing ugh!!!!!!

I guess plan to stay an extra day, not sure if they are going to get it in, who's your favorite driver? I'm a Truex fan since Carl left.
Ive been a kenseth fan, but def like truex as well! im staying til Monday night , supposed to fly out at 730 pm.


can anybody help me out here!!!!!!!!!! im leaving tomorrow am from long island! Im going with a buddy of mine whos almost ready to cancel , I don't wanna!!!!!
At this time Nate is progged to be a minimal hurricane hitting around panhandle or just west. Carolinas if anything will get some rain. Or course these things change but Nate is going to move pretty fast but I highly doubthe will be anywhere near East of fl.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:56 pm

Nhc cone takes him as post tropical depression right over area. Ts wind cone ends down south but then restarts over area with. 10 to 20% chance currently. I've never seen that B4.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:55 pm

@Nyi1058 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@Nyi1058 wrote:Hey fellas I'm supposed to head to charlotte this weekend for Sunday's NASCAR race , what's the deal with this damn thing ugh!!!!!!

I guess plan to stay an extra day, not sure if they are going to get it in, who's your favorite driver? I'm a Truex fan since Carl left.
Ive been a kenseth fan, but def like truex as well! im staying til Monday night , supposed to fly out at 730 pm.


can anybody help me out here!!!!!!!!!! im leaving tomorrow am from long island! Im going with a buddy of mine whos almost ready to cancel , I don't wanna!!!!!

I would go, if it gets rained out Sunday, head to the HOF and maybe they will get it in early enough Monday...

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:45 pm

Dang Nate is racing 21 mph jeeze Levi was right in his video last night about the steering speeding him up. Looks like we could get a decent rain and some breezy conditions early next week if his track sticks.
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:53 pm

There is a deep trough swinging through the middle of the country then pulls him up and out. We will see good rains and breezy conditions if you will Monday and into Tueaday possibly. We need it.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:35 am

Does anyone have info on what the winds will be like when remnants of mate get up our way?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:20 pm

Nhc says 10 to 20% chance of ts winds and 5 to 10 for 50 kt on coast.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:54 pm

how much rain will we get from the remnants and we def need this

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:56 pm

looks like most the rain 2 to 4 stays way north and west per wpc
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Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:30 am

GFS has a weaker version of Sandy in weenie land
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 Gfs_ms10
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 Gfs_ms11

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:05 am

Ok when was the last time Western Europe had a tropical system likely will have hurricane watches up soon. That's insane.
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Post by Dtone Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:06 pm

Ophelia is a major hurricane now, Cat 3.
Its now the furthest east an Atlantic major hurricane has existed on record. The equivalent of a strong TS to Cat 1 hurricance is forecast when it reaches Ireland.

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Post by EnyapWeather Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:46 pm

Oh boy my mom is right in the path of the hurricane.
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:11 pm

@EnyapWeather wrote:Oh boy my mom is right in the path of the hurricane.

OH BOY is right 100 mph winds - they aint use to that in the Ireland my man it will be their Sandy!!!

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Post by amugs Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:28 pm

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 Img_2011

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Post by rb924119 Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:50 am

Mugs, that part of the world sees high wind events quite often, though this is a bit higher than most. The most "abnormal" part of this is that it will be experiencing another one that still has a name attached to it. But even that is not unprecedented.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:49 am

@rb924119 wrote:Mugs, that part of the world sees high wind events quite often, though this is a bit higher than most. The most "abnormal" part of this is that it will be experiencing another one that still has a name attached to it. But even that is not unprecedented.

True but not the norm up there- I know they'll see gales of 40-55mph and some 60 but a powerful extra tropical hcane I dont think they have experienced up there since the great storm of Bravhart (only kidding!)

Wind Records - Doc and CP remember these right?
Highest wind speed in a gust: 98kts at Malin Head, Co. Donegal on 16th September 1961.
Highest 10-minute mean wind speed: 71kts at Foynes, Co. Limerick on 18th January 1945.

https://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-extremes.asp

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Post by rb924119 Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:25 am

Well that's true aha I'm certainly not trying to diminish the severity, I was just saying that because to me, this isn't as comparable to Sandy. The Northeast doesn't experience nearly the frequency of such strong storm/wind events as they do, so I think that is an unfair comparison, in my humble opinion, of course lol

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:41 am

@rb924119 wrote:Well that's true aha I'm certainly not trying to diminish the severity, I was just saying that because to me, this isn't as comparable to Sandy. The Northeast doesn't experience nearly the frequency of such strong storm/wind events as they do, so I think that is an unfair comparison, in my humble opinion, of course lol

Fair point in this respect. 75-85 mph winds in Cork with 100 mph gusts incoming. Pretty severe for this place but they will somehow make it into a fun event.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:19 am

@amugs wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Well that's true aha I'm certainly not trying to diminish the severity, I was just saying that because to me, this isn't as comparable to Sandy. The Northeast doesn't experience nearly the frequency of such strong storm/wind events as they do, so I think that is an unfair comparison, in my humble opinion, of course lol

Fair point in this respect. 75-85 mph winds in Cork with 100 mph gusts incoming. Pretty severe for this place but they will somehow make it into a fun event.

We will see just how high the recorded wind speeds actually make it. That said I want to be in the pub with them for the party. party

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:18 pm

wwell 18z gfs lr is interesting.
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