Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:40 pm

Still really the same at hr 48, which means the GFS is still east of EURO, NAM, and UKMET

by **aiannone** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:40 pm

tick NW at 54

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:41 pm

No surprise from the GFS lol stayed the course

by **Snow88** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:42 pm

GFS was slightly west at 54 but quite similiar to 18z

by **aiannone** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:43 pm

ok, im surrendering to my battle with the nyquil. Night all. let's see what 12Zs do tmw!

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:44 pm

aiannone wrote:ok, im surrendering to my battle with the nyquil. Night all. let's see what 12Zs do tmw!

Feel better..

by **hyde345** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:44 pm

Not much precip north and west on GFS. Think there should be more.

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:44 pm

aiannone wrote:ok, im surrendering to my battle with the nyquil. Night all. let's see what 12Zs do tmw!

You fought valiantly in battle, soldier!!!! You have earned your place in the halls of our fathers! Ahaha

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:44 pm

I am headed to bed too, I will check in either in the AM or at lunch though I will be mobile. I will def b on in the evening.

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I am headed to bed too, I will check in either in the AM or at lunch though I will be mobile. I will def b on in the evening.

Good luck tomorrow, buddy!!!

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:50 pm

Well I'm sure the CMC will probably stay east too, but lets see

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:57 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Well I'm sure the CMC will probably stay east too, but lets see

Agree haha about the same through 24, just a little slower maybe

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Well I'm sure the CMC will probably stay east too, but lets see

Agree haha about the same through 24, just a little slower maybe

I mean if it's the EURO/UKMET vs GFS/CMC I like the chances of a more west track haha

by **Sanchize06** Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:00 am

CMC pretty far east this run

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:01 am

Southeast through 48 now. I can't keep my eyes open anymore, I'm hitting the hay guys. Good night!!

by **Snow88** Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:02 am

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC pretty far east this run

If only the CMC was good with tropical storms Very Happy

by **algae888** Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:59 am

euro and ukie are also east.
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 19 Ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_3

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 19 Ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_4

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 19 UV_PN_UU_VV_048_1000

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 19 UV_PN_UU_VV_060_1000

5 pages on the nam. lol and less than one on the reliable models.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:37 am

I think that's because nobody was awake, tbh ahaha I know I wasn't lmao for the most part there was definitely an east shift, though I'd argue the UKMET was relatively unchanged. Could this be another wobble because of the ingestion of extra data which again correct west? Possibly, but at this point I think chances of a US landfall as a meaningful system, as well as a track far enough west to really cause issues outside of the immediate coastlines are fading rapidly. I'll give it today's 12z's before I fold, take my "L", and adjust. Been a fun ride, though, regardless of the outcome haha

by **algae888** Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:47 am

rb924119 wrote:I think that's because nobody was awake, tbh ahaha I know I wasn't lmao for the most part there was definitely an east shift, though I'd argue the UKMET was relatively unchanged. Could this be another wobble because of the ingestion of extra data which again correct west? Possibly, but at this point I think chances of a US landfall as a meaningful system, as well as a track far enough west to really cause issues outside of the immediate coastlines are fading rapidly. I'll give it today's 12z's before I fold, take my "L", and adjust. Been a fun ride, though, regardless of the outcome haha

rb you know everybody is awake.lol. just nothing positive happened with tonight's runs. it has been a very active and fun tropical season esp when they do not hit our area. still have maria before we can turn our attention to winter. august and sept. flew by with all these storms to track. Very Happy

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:32 am

Everything is coming into agreement well east and in line with nhc. they are the head honchos. Well I guess onto the next. But Maria looks to be a fish.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:45 am

jmanley32 wrote:Everything is coming into agreement well east and in line with nhc. they are the head honchos. Well I guess onto the next. But Maria looks to be a fish.

Yeah everything pushed east and we will be spared Very Happy

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:29 am

Jose not looking good at all

by **Snow88** Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:44 am

Never doubt the tropical models

This storm looks to be a normal noreaster for the coast ( More rain the further east you go )

NYC should expect some rain and wind, nothing major

As far as Maria goes, this is looking like a fish storm because Jose gets trapped under the ridge and doesn't have no where to go. When Jose rots and leaves, he leaves a weakness in the ridge. That causes Maria to go OTS. Can it change? Sure but we need Jose to lift out fast.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:52 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Jose not looking good at all

Yeah, definitely looking non-tropical already

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:52 am

Answer: Nay

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Answer: Nay

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:23 am

Snow88 wrote:Never doubt the tropical models

This storm looks to be a normal noreaster for the coast ( More rain the further east you go )

NYC should expect some rain and wind, nothing major

As far as Maria goes, this is looking like a fish storm because Jose gets trapped under the ridge and doesn't have no where to go. When Jose rots and leaves, he leaves a weakness in the ridge. That causes Maria to go OTS. Can it change? Sure but we need Jose to lift out fast.

Sounds like you watched Levi's video last night geek

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