Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Wow sign me up

Where is everyone

How can we go from the NAM ots and rb pulling the plug to literally the next post being about a blizzard crush job?

Need to hear from Frank or Scott soon

Hi-Res models are trending on having cyclogenesis occur closer to the coast of Florida as a results of a few things. That in conjunction to improvements aloft have allowed further ticks west with surface track. With such a great upper level jet structure, precip is allowed to develop further west from the surface low as it rapidly intensifies. Improvements will continue to be made.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is everyone

Hungover or sleeping or frustrated at the NAM

wait...I leave off at "OMG THE SHREFS"...to make breakfast to come back and see "ITS DONE"...WHAT THE HECK....I feel I have been Linda Blair'd  from the Exorcist ..lol...oh boy am I aging myself.

skinns thats uts....lets see it verify!

Quietace wrote:Hi-Res models are trending on having cyclogenesis occur closer to the coast of Florida as a results of a few things. That in conjunction to improvements aloft have allowed further ticks west with surface track. With such a great upper level jet structure, precip is allowed to develop further west from the surface low as it rapidly intensifies. Improvements will continue to be made.

Isn’t the hi res NAM that rb was posting about (which just collapsed the ridge and went ots) a short range model?

.4 to .6 for me! That’s would be 8-12 inch at 20:1 ratio!!!!

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Hi-Res models are trending on having cyclogenesis occur closer to the coast of Florida as a results of a few things. That in conjunction to improvements aloft have allowed further ticks west with surface track. With such a great upper level jet structure, precip is allowed to develop further west from the surface low as it rapidly intensifies. Improvements will continue to be made.

Isn’t the hi res NAM that rb was posting about (which just collapsed the ridge and went ots) a short range model?

Yes. However, just because it is OTS does not mean that it is correct with its entire representation

Stronger ridge out west with the GFS.

hearing gfs NOT looking good (((((

from a diff board

12z GFS still not going to do it. Can't have the LP develop in the Bahamas. Has to be closer to the coast like the short range models have it

skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow sign me up

Just a reminder to some this is water equivalent in MM. The 25mm is actually 1 inch of water. Still not a bad map if it ever verified. I'd sign up now.

NWS issued a hwo for our area and has us for a 60-70% chance of 4”+ snow. They also still favor an offshore track but mention an inverted trough

syosnow94 wrote:How can we go from the NAM ots and rb pulling the plug to literally the next post being about a blizzard crush job?

Need to hear from Frank or Scott soon

Whoa whoa whoa let's not put the cart before the horse here lmfao I DID NOT pull the plug. I was play-by-playing and then got distracted by breakfast. That NAM run ended crappily because it collapsed the ridge east. However, I've noticed that things have been drastically improving each run but once in the last third or so of each run it breaks down, only to look better the next time around. I think it's catching the subleties early such as handling of energy interactions and diabatic heat release, thus tilting the trough negative sooner and sooner with higher heights out ahead each time, but then falls victim to errors with calculating these once they start propagating. The SREFS, which are based on the same dynamical core as the NAM, so basically are a NAM ensemble, continue to show more and more big time impacts, which is a sign to me. Throw in their statistical spread, and they show a definitive hard inside lean consistent with my feeling that the interior/western-most low will be the primary based on the forcing mechanisms. We have to see how this gets resolved.

All pieces of emergy will be fully sampled on tonights 00z runs. We're still in scrape territory but we're now seeing small hints from short range guidance that this has plenty of room to come west. Heres the RPM for example. And the 3K NAM also looked like this



We need global models to come on board. Hopefully the EURO at 12z does today.

JMA

rb924119 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:How can we go from the NAM ots and rb pulling the plug to literally the next post being about a blizzard crush job?

Need to hear from Frank or Scott soon

Whoa whoa whoa let's not put the cart before the horse here lmfao I DID NOT pull the plug. I was play-by-playing and then got distracted by breakfast. That NAM run ended crappily because it collapsed the ridge east. However, I've noticed that things have been drastically improving each run but once in the last third or so of each run it breaks down, only to look better the next time around. I think it's catching the subleties early such as handling of energy interactions and diabatic heat release, thus tilting the trough negative sooner and sooner with higher heights out ahead each time, but then falls victim to errors with calculating these once they start propagating. The SREFS, which are based on the same dynamical core as the NAM, so basically are a NAM ensemble, continue to show more and more big time impacts, which is a sign to me. Throw in their statistical spread, and they show a definitive hard inside lean consistent with my feeling that the interior/western-most low will be the primary based on the forcing mechanisms. We have to see how this gets resolved.

Ok thanks buddy. I’m a little foggy right now. The freaking RGEM has me for 1.6” qpf. At 15:1 that would be 2’

CMC!

holy crap! cmc!

cmc a HUGE hit gfs west a few inches for area

snow map for cmc?
?

Last 4 runs on the GEM at H5

jake732 wrote:snow map for cmc?
?

my computer not letting me post maps. 6-12" for our entire forum with 2' for southern new jersey. 10:1 ratio's