Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:59 am

Last 4 runs on the GEM at H5
Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 11 Gem_z511

by **algae888** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:04 am

jake732 wrote:snow map for cmc?
?

my computer not letting me post maps. 6-12" for our entire forum with 2' for southern new jersey. 10:1 ratio's

by **Sanchize06** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:06 am

Not as impressive as it looked, but the track was the most important thing from this run. Also, a little on the warmer side closer to coast at the surface

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 11 Gem_asnow24_neus_11

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 11 Gem_asnow24_neus_11

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:07 am

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:How can we go from the NAM ots and rb pulling the plug to literally the next post being about a blizzard crush job?

Need to hear from Frank or Scott soon

Whoa whoa whoa let's not put the cart before the horse here lmfao I DID NOT pull the plug. I was play-by-playing and then got distracted by breakfast. That NAM run ended crappily because it collapsed the ridge east. However, I've noticed that things have been drastically improving each run but once in the last third or so of each run it breaks down, only to look better the next time around. I think it's catching the subleties early such as handling of energy interactions and diabatic heat release, thus tilting the trough negative sooner and sooner with higher heights out ahead each time, but then falls victim to errors with calculating these once they start propagating. The SREFS, which are based on the same dynamical core as the NAM, so basically are a NAM ensemble, continue to show more and more big time impacts, which is a sign to me. Throw in their statistical spread, and they show a definitive hard inside lean consistent with my feeling that the interior/western-most low will be the primary based on the forcing mechanisms. We have to see how this gets resolved.

Ok thanks buddy. I’m a little foggy right now. The freaking RGEM has me for 1.6” qpf. At 15:1 that would be 2’

Hahaha no worries. I've always liked this thing coming further west than modeled, I just wasn't sure how far. Initially, though, I did like a track inside the BM and right near the coast, but that was before the models took it way east and changed the look of things. Now it appears the short-range guidance may be heading toward that idea and showing the pattern from earlier on, which would be great for everybody.

by **jake732** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:09 am

ukie looking east

by **billg315** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:10 am

I think it’s clear the OVERALL trends have been West the past 48-72 hours. Individual anomalous runs aside. I’ve also noticed the TV Mets who two days ago were saying nothing of a storm Thursday are discussing the potential of a coastal storm to “keep an eye on” without dramatically changing their forecast. I call this the “TV Met slow walk”: where they largely ignore a storm potential then three days out sense it’s coming so they make baby steps toward it so they don’t throw everyone into a panic all at once. Lol. We shall see.

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:11 am

jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

Do you have maps to confirm this?

by **billg315** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:12 am

The thing I hate about scrapers is I’m in very precarious territory for them: just far enough west to get the shaft, but not far enough west to not be excited about what I COULD get. Lol.

by Guest Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:12 am

billg315 wrote:I think it’s clear the OVERALL trends have been West the past 48-72 hours. Individual anomalous runs aside. I’ve also noticed the TV Mets who two days ago were saying nothing of a storm Thursday are discussing the potential of a coastal storm to “keep an eye on” without dramatically changing their forecast. I call this the “TV Met slow walk”: where they largely ignore a storm potential then three days out sense it’s coming so they make baby steps toward it so they don’t throw everyone into a panic all at once. Lol. We shall see.

I agree about the “tv met slow walk”. The NWS point forecast has done the same

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:13 am

jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

I don't think the new one has run yet......

by **algae888** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:16 am

rb924119 wrote:
jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

I don't think the new one has run yet......

The new u kie is not out yet. Please only post when you have the facts

by **mikeypizano** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:16 am

Is there any chance we can have the storm too far west so we get mixing at the coast like Stella?

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:17 am

jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

12z UKIE doesnt run until about 1:30

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:18 am

algae888 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

I don't think the new one has run yet......
The new ukie is not out yet. Please only post when you have the facts

This is crucial...

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:18 am

jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

I don't think the new one has run yet......

by **billg315** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:19 am

Ah you gotta love living in this area. Lol. The only place I can thing of where you can simultaneously (and legitimately) be concerned that a storm could be too Far East (no snow) or too far west (mixing). It’s what makes forecasting in the mid-Atlantic/Northeast such a wonderful and infuriating hobby.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:27 am

jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

If you read one comment on another forum it doesn't make it fact.

by Guest Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:28 am

mikeypizano wrote:Is there any chance we can have the storm too far west so we get mixing at the coast like Stella?

I live on the coast and legitimately have ZERO concern about any mixing issues. It’s freaking Siberia outside.

by **billg315** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:31 am

syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Is there any chance we can have the storm too far west so we get mixing at the coast like Stella?

I live on the coast and legitimately have ZERO concern about any mixing issues. It’s freaking Siberia outside.

While not overly concerned with mixing (mainly because we can barely get this thing far enough west to get me a 4”-plus snow in the first place) I would caution that my projected high Wednesday is now 32* - about 15 degrees warmer than today . . . Soooo if it came far enough west I wouldn’t totally discount that risk at the coast.

by **jake732** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:32 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jake732 wrote:ukie looking east

If you read one comment on another forum it doesn't make it fact.

ok ok ok i got the point! i made a mistake... dont need all the beef

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:35 am

syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Is there any chance we can have the storm too far west so we get mixing at the coast like Stella?

I live on the coast and legitimately have ZERO concern about any mixing issues. It’s freaking Siberia outside.

Love ya but you should know better, today has no bearing on Thursday temps.

Not going to happen but if this somehow ran up and over NYC we would all change to mixed precip me included, despite it being below zero in many parts this morning, and eastern NE and eastern LI it would rain.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:36 am

billg315 wrote:The thing I hate about scrapers is I’m in very precarious territory for them: just far enough west to get the shaft, but not far enough west to not be excited about what I COULD get. Lol.

Ain't that the truth. We in Flemington agree.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:42 am

Have fun with the JMA......CMC's twin except further west lol

by **Sanchize06** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:45 am

Don't have the precip maps yet so it's hard to tell, but UKIE does look east

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 11 GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:46 am

JMA, GGEM, RGEM, SREFS, NAM, RPM are on board for a major snowfall

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:JMA, GGEM, RGEM, SREFS, NAM, RPM are on board for a major snowfall

Until EURO comes aboard, I'm cautiously optimistic.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:50 am

The precip on the UKIE is kind of similar to CMC, so this could end up still being a nice hit

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 11 P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 11 P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

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