Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Talk about a cut off my god!!
Also ratios are 15-20:1

12km NAM Total precip

This would produce very very high rates....

Quietace wrote:This would produce very very high rates....

These maps I’m seeing posted spit out .8”- 1.25” west to east from me NJ through LI. 15:1 would yield 12-18” in those same areas no?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this still seems to be too far East for our area, are we still thinking there is a chance it will come further west or not likely being 36 hours away?

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:This would produce very very high rates....

These maps I’m seeing posted spit out .8”- 1.25” west to east from me NJ through LI. 15:1 would yield 12-18” in those same areas no?

Verbatim, yes.

That dont look very good

Relax guys ace said the hi res may continue to correct for the better. Already my area has .5 to .8 or so which would be near a foot.

Quietace wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:This would produce very very high rates....

These maps I’m seeing posted spit out .8”- 1.25” west to east from me NJ through LI. 15:1 would yield 12-18” in those same areas no?

Verbatim, yes.

rarely have I seen such a spin up and dark reds on the 500 mb wow. That big band is ever so close to being right over me 25 miles west or less.

Sorry guys, but the video had issues last night and wouldn't convert, and I fell asleep before it did. Will be posted momentarily.

rb924119 wrote:Sorry guys, but the video had issues last night and wouldn't convert, and I fell asleep before it did. Will be posted momentarily.

how u feel since last night since this mornings runs and nam?

rb924119 wrote:Sorry guys, but the video had issues last night and wouldn't convert, and I fell asleep before it did. Will be posted momentarily.

thanks

Remember the ratios will be higher, but when we are talking about feedback development, the models like the NAM and RGEM should be best, That the Canadian global model and ensembles have seen what they have seen may be because they are not as complex so they dont see the kind of feedback that fast that the GFSdoes. which spins things up fast, So what happens is the that until these features get close to the verification time, the complex global models may start estimating quicker where something may form spin it up and then take off, The Canadian global is likely not as sophisticated as the Euro so it does not start the feedback, However as we get closer, the regional models should have the better handle and NAM makes sense to me, Think about it, how does a storm blowing up move away from the trough trying to capture it with height rises to its northeast and over a warm ocean. So a correction west makes sense, In any case using higher ratios we see that this could be a shut down storm in the coastal mid Atlantic to New England and perhaps as far west as DC to NYC in the I-95 corridor ( if you get 6 inches of powder and bitter cold with high winds to follow, its not a picnic, But my point is the NAM and RGEM looks close to what I have been envisioning the past 3 days. It cant be longer than that cause I bit on the out to sea idea 4 days ago with that one Euro run

So with the storm doing what the NAM says ( though I think amounts will be 2-3 x NE NC to NJ (have fun measuring) and the arctic air following we could have some lows that are about as cold as they can get in the areas getting this snow.

FROM JB

Joe`s idea



6 back to NW NJ

6 to 12 I 95 on east along the coast

1 to 2 feet in New England.



Says shut down blizzard from LI into N/E.

RGEM LE

amugs wrote:Joe`s idea  



6 back to NW NJ

6 to 12  I 95  on east along the coast

1 to 2 feet in New England.



Says shut down blizzard from LI into N/E.

come on jb give NYC and Westchester and coastal jersey some love lol. I'll still take 6 to 12 def.

amugs wrote:RGEM LE

wow talk about a back off to the East we were in the oranges damn.

NYC Metro Area 7.5 - 10 MM = .3 to .4"
10:1 =3-4"
15:1 - 4.5 -6"

Again if this verifies
The LP is still East of the BM in this run

amugs wrote:NYC Metro Area 7.5 - 10 MM = .3 to .4"
10:1 =3-4"
15:1 - 4.5 -6"

Again if this verifies
The LP is still East of the BM in this run

can only hope that this decides jump west at last minute. We are run out of time.

Mugsy, what does the hi-res see differently?

Reading on twitter that the GFS just came in with 983mb just of OBX, more west. Can anyone concur?

Its just my opinion from what i am seeing and hearing, but I think eastern LI and nameless place we see a blizzard but i just think this storm is to far east for most, yes i can see city get around 6 but its still got some to come west and east to lets hope west.

deadrabbit79 wrote:Reading on twitter that the GFS just came in with 983mb just of OBX, more west.  Can anyone concur?

Yes and then it moves ENE - but it did jump west WEst side is being sucked dry by the intense arctic air moving in on teh backside from what it seems

amugs wrote:RGEM LE

That’s a little disappointing. I’ll take it and run but....

Gfs is a bit west fwiw. Still not enough for big changes but sr models going to lead here on out imo.

amugs wrote:

deadrabbit79 wrote:Reading on twitter that the GFS just came in with 983mb just of OBX, more west.  Can anyone concur?

Yes and then it moves ENE - but it did jump west WEst side is being sucked dry by the intense arctic air moving in on teh backside from what it seems

That’s..45” NYC TO .65” Montauk. What was it the prior run?