Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Gfs is a bit west fwiw. Still not enough for big changes but sr models going to lead here on out imo.

amugs wrote:

deadrabbit79 wrote:Reading on twitter that the GFS just came in with 983mb just of OBX, more west.  Can anyone concur?

Yes and then it moves ENE - but it did jump west WEst side is being sucked dry by the intense arctic air moving in on teh backside from what it seems

That’s..45” NYC TO .65” Montauk. What was it the prior run?

Now CMC shafts NYC/LI/ and all of SNE. DE and SNJ are near a foot or more. This storm is giving me a headache lol

Where has our fearless leader been no update to index or scroll or thoughts since brief morning. Hoping to hear from ya frank.

aiannone wrote:Now CMC shafts NYC/LI/ and all of SNE. DE and SNJ are near a foot or more. This storm is giving me a headache lol

oh gimmick a break s ne too these models don't have a clue.

Cmc long islsnd gets 6 to 12 no ratios that's not shafted.

12z GFS has this low the most west off the nc/va coast yet. If you look at the last 7-10 GFS runs, you can clearly the mean track staying with the coast a little bit longer each time. If this trend continue, the timing would be perfect to get this inside the BM all the way up.

Video posted in a separate thread!

GGEm in line with its counter part RGEM - .4" line into NYC

Word is UKMET is west.

emokid51783 wrote:Mugsy, what does the hi-res see differently?

Great question - they see teh latent heat and convection better and dont jump the SLP to this as teh global models due. Right now you see teh global models trending to the SR Mesoscale model solutions.
Amazing that a storm to the BM that is sub 980 can give us 4-8" - back in teh day that woudl be feet of snow for NNJ, LHV. This dense cold dry air maybe a culprit as well as teh low concentrating the moisture towards its center of circulation.

NWS depicts what I believe will pan out. Congrats to Eastern New England (my home hood) cuz they're gonna be clobbered.

12z GFS and CMC look better to me, but they are still focusing on the wrong energy, IMO.

amugs wrote:NYC Metro Area 7.5 - 10 MM = .3 to .4"
10:1 =3-4"
15:1 - 4.5 -6"

Again if this verifies
The LP is still East of the BM in this run

Fine with me, 4 to 6 will be acceptable after seeing NWS having me down for an inch.I think Mugsy may be right, just so much cold ,dry air on the west side.Looking more and more like a real coastal hugger to me.

the more west you are yes doc but still have hope this storm has no idea.

the more west you are yes doc but still have hope this storm has no idea.

SoulSingMG wrote:NWS depicts what I believe will pan out. Congrats to Eastern New England (my home hood) cuz they're gonna be clobbered.

Not if you're from Cape Cod which if memory serves me you're not. They look to be on the rainy end of this on several of the models. The weather Channel app, I know not the most reliable but others do agree with it, have them for a high of 39 on Thursday. Being too far east isn't always a good thing.

Personally I'm not counting on any model being correct at this point.

jimv45 wrote:the more west you are yes doc but still have hope this storm has no idea.

I'm not counting on it Jim but I am hoping for it. Several of the short range models do have some serious banding going through the Hudson Valley at times. Not long-duration bands but enough that I think 4 to 6 is not out of the question for us.

With that said 0 in the Hudson Valley or even an unexpected 12 to 18 wouldn't surprise me at this point. As I said earlier a low that strong will go and do what it wants. No science just many years of weather watching in this area.

jimv45 wrote:the more west you are yes doc but still have hope this storm has no idea.

Very true Jimv.I'll take 4 to 6 as a minimum and hope for more.Whatever we get, it's staying around for a while for sure!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:NWS depicts what I believe will pan out. Congrats to Eastern New England (my home hood) cuz they're gonna be clobbered.

Not if you're from Cape Cod which if memory serves me you're not. They look to be on the rainy end of this on several of the models. The weather Channel app, I know not the most reliable but others do agree with it, have them for a high of 39 on Thursday. Being too far east isn't always a good thing.

Personally I'm not counting on any model being correct at this point.

You're correct, CP. I'm from eastern New Hampshire. We usually exclude the "Cape & The Islands" as their own geographic entity so I was speaking more about Beantown on north & east. Every model shows a brutal cutoff of precip and I don't like how I (Westchester) am on the edge with most. We need a 75 mile track further west to get me Boxing Day giddy.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jimv45 wrote:the more west you are yes doc but still have hope this storm has no idea.

I'm not counting on it Jim but I am hoping for it. Several of the short range models do have some serious banding going through the Hudson Valley at times. Not long-duration bands but enough that I think 4 to 6 is not out of the question for us.

With that said 0 in the Hudson Valley or even an unexpected 12 to 18 wouldn't surprise me at this point. As I said earlier a low that strong will go and do what it wants. No science just many years of weather watching in this area.

CP, if we get 6 then we have a nice 9 inch snow pack for the next cold air arriving to keep in good shape.That would be a nice scenario.As you say, though, got my hopes up!!!

yep CP 0 to 18 that about nails it, because the weather service right now i don't think knows what this storm will do they might get the dart board out soon.

Bernie Rayno believes NAM is on to something, fwiw.

Hoping it has ticked west enough to get Westchester a good 6

Looks like 2-4 type of storm

Vinnydula wrote:Looks like 2-4 type of storm

oh well at least i will still be able to get to the gym then. on a side note....im not far from you. Im in Hartsdale