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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:EURO looked amazing to me at H5. I think I may have to do a video later this afternoon about this system.....gotta see if time permits.

Rb to me the euro wanted to tug at hour 81 on that low to the west

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Meh

So did it go west or not.  You don’t seem that enthused!

We're in an unfortunate situation. The 500mb level actually looks decent on basically all the models. But it's not giving us anything at the surface. We will not be seeing a low pressure on or inside the BM. Instead, we have to rely on forcing and precip shield enhancement from the UL jet. I'm favoring a glancing blow bringing a light to moderate event for the immediate coast. I don't think this will be a widespread Mothrazilla. It will be confined. Hopefully I'm wrong and we see more drastic changes at the surface.

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:33 pm

Kind of leaning that way myself Frank! Some will be pretty happy but a lot of us could be in the sharp cutoffs.

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Post by mikeypizano Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:34 pm

Screw the Euro... I am using the short range models now.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:34 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:EURO looked amazing to me at H5. I think I may have to do a video later this afternoon about this system.....gotta see if time permits.

Rb to me the euro wanted to tug at hour 81 on that low to the west

Agree, strongly.

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:35 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:12z Deep Thunder

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 Zu1nq9
what model is that?
Deep thunder is run off the MPAS core which was developed by NCAR and SHOULD HAVE been chosen as the successor core for the GFS (FV3 was chosen instead. Do not get me into that....) TWC(formerly WSI) runs it with there own BL/CP schemes etc. It is all open source.
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:EURO looked amazing to me at H5. I think I may have to do a video later this afternoon about this system.....gotta see if time permits.

Rb to me the euro wanted to tug at hour 81 on that low to the west

Agree, strongly.
I am fairly confident given prior experiences with similar UL representations that the surface is not being correctly resolved currently.
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Post by Vinnydula Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:38 pm

Euro snow map No
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:40 pm

Steve DiMartino:

"I think the models are starting the shift west. I would not be surprised if by Wednesday morning this forecast comes 100-150 miles further west."
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:42 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Meh

So did it go west or not.  You don’t seem that enthused!

We're in an unfortunate situation. The 500mb level actually looks decent on basically all the models. But it's not giving us anything at the surface. We will not be seeing a low pressure on or inside the BM. Instead, we have to rely on forcing and precip shield enhancement from the UL jet. I'm favoring a glancing blow bringing a light to moderate event for the immediate coast. I don't think this will be a widespread Mothrazilla. It will be confined. Hopefully I'm wrong and we see more drastic changes at the surface.

Wow. I’m surprised to hear you say that! The GEPS mean maps posted on the last page look so good

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:00 pm

GEFS are west of last run as well.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:00 pm

Madonne...15z SREFS give NYC .65 qpf

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:04 pm

Quoting myself again from yesterday and day before. Your going to have to trust me on this one.

’ll reiterate. This is an extremely complex set up. Do not be surprised to see trends to cont up inside of 24-48hrs.”


Plus here is Upton’s very nice summary on the forecast. Notice they bring up an IVT also.

Moderate potential for snow Wed Night into Thursday ..
.. Bitter cold returns for Friday into the Weekend ..

Models continue in good agreement with the polar jet digging down
into the SE US during the midweek, amplifying/sharpening the polar
trough, and interacting with a separate vigorous PAC shortwave
(entering the Northern Rockies this morning) that will be diving
ahead into the southern US. The complexity and uncertainty of the
forecast continues to lie in the evolution of the next piece of PAC
shortwave energy (coming onshore of British Columbia this
morning) and how it digs the polar jet southward and interacts
with the lead shortwave energy. The timing/location of phasing
of the secondary shortwave energy with the initial
shortwave/southern stream energy as they round the base of the
digging trough will be key in track/timing of a explosively
developing northward moving southern low.

It will first be key to amplitude and orientation of the polar
trough. SBU sensitivity analysis indicating that a stronger
secondary shortwave than GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean will result in a
deeper trough with stronger upstream ridging, resulting in a
resultant explosive low pressure tracking closer to the coast and
likely bringing heavier precip (possible mix coast?) to the area.
While the converse would likely support a farther offshore low, with
less snow for the region.

Secondly, models are hinting at an inverted trough/weak low pressure
development up the Mid-Atlantic coast Wed Night into Thu morning
under right rear of phasing 150 kt northern/southern stream upper
jet and along a strong baroclinic zone, with resultant precip
development streaming up the coast. When the rapid primary low
pressure intensification takes place, it appears that the thermal
forcing and best lift/moisture convergence will tighten towards the
bombing low. Based on current offshore primary low track, an earlier
energy phasing and low intensification would spell less moisture
riding up into the region (GFS), while a slower
phasing/intensification would spell more moisture into the region
(GEM). ECMWF appears to be a good compromise of scenarios.

Taking into account the above scenarios and an operational and
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus, the overall probability for a light
snowfall event is increasing. Have increased pops to chance west and
likely east based on GEFS/ECWMF ensembles probs for 1/10th inch QPF
over the region late Wed Night into early Thu Night. As mentioned in
scenarios above, potential for a heavy snow (mixed precip?) event is
still in play, but a lower probability scenario at this point.

Otherwise...before this storm, a moderation in temps to about 10
degrees below seasonable expected Wednesday ahead of developing
polar trough. After the storm, the hazard once again becomes
the arctic cold. In fact, this could be the coldest air thus
far, with signal for 850 temps of -25 to -30c into the region
for Friday into the weekend. This would likely have temps
struggling to get out of the single digits to lower teens
Fri/Sat, with widespread wind chills of
-10 to -20 degrees early Fri and Sat mornings.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:07 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:06 pm

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 5a4a85e9649e4_precip_total_accum_members_NECONUS_hr087(3).png.4aab3a923a3b602ddf0ea162d3c26373

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Post by jimv45 Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:08 pm

lot of them show good hits for the area.

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Post by Radz Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 5a4a85e9649e4_precip_total_accum_members_NECONUS_hr087(3).png.4aab3a923a3b602ddf0ea162d3c26373

3,5, and 6 please Laughing
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 5a4a85e9649e4_precip_total_accum_members_NECONUS_hr087(3).png.4aab3a923a3b602ddf0ea162d3c26373

Frank both the control and the mean are over .9” for NYC NO? With ratios this is Godzilla verbatim for areas even 20 miles west of NYC! Am I wrong?

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:17 pm

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 32746210
Euro is getting better with each run. Only 150 miles east of benchmark. H5 levels argued for a closer approach. With better sampling tonight and tomorrow, I have a hunch things will get very interesting!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:20 pm

Euro ensembles are a glancing blow again but I think there are several west leaning members. This system is giving me agita.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:20 pm

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 5a4a89c909daf_Screenshot2018-01-0114_19_29.png.a18e160d724b716103010cc93e0704f1

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:26 pm

Some far east ones on the EPS as well.
SROC so true - we have seen this so many times with our coastal lows over the decasdes ho wthey trend inside 48 hours.
Nuts we are seeing the push west on the EURO - still need that turd of a kicker to go away, slow down or the Southern Vort stay open an dthen close off at the VA CAPES and we get what everyone hopes and prays for around here.

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro ensembles are a glancing blow again but I think there are several west leaning members. This system is giving me agita.
It is 5 o clock somewhere right? lol
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:40 pm

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 4f2d3310
GEPS ensembles. Many members are inside the benchmark.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:50 pm

Okay, sooooo............ Shocked

Are these in range??

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 9fd0b910
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:54 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Okay, sooooo............ Shocked

Are these in range??

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 14 9fd0b910

Wow, that's even better than 9z

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Post by Carter bk Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:55 pm

The only thing i didnt get my daughter for her birthday yet is the storm hope i can get her everything she wants. snowday/birthday1/4\18

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Post by lglickman1 Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:07 pm

Are any of the global models on board with anything other than a glancing blow?

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