Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

SoulSingMG wrote:I almost don't want to see the Euro in fear it is going to be my first cry of 2018.....

soul it forming a nice clean low might have been a good thing and now all it has do is come west. keep the hope. carter god i hope ur right.

12z Deep Thunder

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I almost don't want to see the Euro in fear it is going to be my first cry of 2018.....

soul it forming a nice clean low might have been a good thing and now all it has do is come west. keep the hope. carter god i hope ur right.

It makes more sense to me that the parent low which would 'take over' would be the one over the Gulf Stream warmer waters—aka closer to the East coast. A big FWIW.

RPM is a big hit for the whole area

Snow88 wrote:12z Deep Thunder

what model is that?

Snow88 wrote:RPM is a big hit for the whole area

maps?

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:12z Deep Thunder

what model is that?

Desperate...

here goes nothing euro!!

From NWS:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.. Moderate potential for snow Wed Night into Thursday ..
.. Bitter cold returns for Friday into the Weekend ..

Models continue in good agreement with the polar jet digging down
into the SE US during the midweek, amplifying/sharpening the polar
trough, and interacting with a separate vigorous PAC shortwave
(entering the Northern Rockies this morning) that will be diving
ahead into the southern US. The complexity and uncertainty of the
forecast continues to lie in the evolution of the next piece of PAC
shortwave energy (coming onshore of British Columbia this
morning) and how it digs the polar jet southward and interacts
with the lead shortwave energy. The timing/location of phasing
of the secondary shortwave energy with the initial
shortwave/southern stream energy as they round the base of the
digging trough will be key in track/timing of a explosively
developing northward moving southern low.

It will first be key to amplitude and orientation of the polar
trough. SBU sensitivity analysis indicating that a stronger
secondary shortwave than GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean will result in a
deeper trough with stronger upstream ridging, resulting in a
resultant explosive low pressure tracking closer to the coast and
likely bringing heavier precip (possible mix coast?) to the area.
While the converse would likely support a farther offshore low, with
less snow for the region.

Secondly, models are hinting at an inverted trough/weak low pressure
development up the Mid-Atlantic coast Wed Night into Thu morning
under right rear of phasing 150 kt northern/southern stream upper
jet and along a strong baroclinic zone, with resultant precip
development streaming up the coast. When the rapid primary low
pressure intensification takes place, it appears that the thermal
forcing and best lift/moisture convergence will tighten towards the
bombing low. Based on current offshore primary low track, an earlier
energy phasing and low intensification would spell less moisture
riding up into the region (GFS), while a slower
phasing/intensification would spell more moisture into the region
(GEM). ECMWF appears to be a good compromise of scenarios.

Taking into account the above scenarios and an operational and
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus, the overall probability for a light
snowfall event is increasing. Have increased pops to chance west and
likely east based on GEFS/ECWMF ensembles probs for 1/10th inch QPF
over the region late Wed Night into early Thu Night. As mentioned in
scenarios above, potential for a heavy snow (mixed precip?) event is
still in play, but a lower probability scenario at this point.

Otherwise...before this storm, a moderation in temps to about 10
degrees below seasonable expected Wednesday ahead of developing
polar trough. After the storm, the hazard once again becomes
the arctic cold. In fact, this could be the coldest air thus
far, with signal for 850 temps of -25 to -30c into the region
for Friday into the weekend. This would likely have temps
struggling to get out of the single digits to lower teens
Fri/Sat, with widespread wind chills of
-10 to -20 degrees early Fri and Sat mornings.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:RPM is a big hit for the whole area

maps?

wow!! thats gotta be a godzilla. i would love to get the lp close enough that some of the extreme wind potential this has comes with the snow!

mikeypizano wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:12z Deep Thunder

what model is that?

Desperate...

Experimental model

no one is watch the euro it looks good, maybe west!

jmanley32 wrote:no one is watch the euro it looks good, maybe west!

BITE YOUR TONGUE

oh huge shift west!

great euro run wow

its weird the center shifts west but not the precip

Changes aloft were a step in the right direction on the Euro. It still has more changes to be made at the surface with respect to SLP position etc. It is having trouble resolving surface features.

EURO looks like it's not that different from 0z, though it is hard to tell with 24 hour increments, though 500mb seemed to be a little better

Meh

Frank_Wx wrote:Meh

So did it go west or not. You don’t seem that enthused!

Meh i guess in not impressed.

This Euro run is better than the last. I'll take it.

EURO looked amazing to me at H5. I think I may have to do a video later this afternoon about this system.....gotta see if time permits.

rb924119 wrote:EURO looked amazing to me at H5. I think I may have to do a video later this afternoon about this system.....gotta see if time permits.

Rb to me the euro wanted to tug at hour 81 on that low to the west

syosnow94 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Meh

So did it go west or not.  You don’t seem that enthused!

We're in an unfortunate situation. The 500mb level actually looks decent on basically all the models. But it's not giving us anything at the surface. We will not be seeing a low pressure on or inside the BM. Instead, we have to rely on forcing and precip shield enhancement from the UL jet. I'm favoring a glancing blow bringing a light to moderate event for the immediate coast. I don't think this will be a widespread Mothrazilla. It will be confined. Hopefully I'm wrong and we see more drastic changes at the surface.