Re: Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

by **Vinnydula** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:41 am

Looks like 2-4 type of storm

by deadrabbit79 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:43 am

Vinnydula wrote:Looks like 2-4 type of storm

oh well at least i will still be able to get to the gym then. on a side note....im not far from you. Im in Hartsdale

by **dsix85** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:46 am

WSW watch issued for Suffolk County.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:47 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1143 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018
1143 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including the morning and evening commute on Thursday. Total
snow accumulations of 6 or more inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Connecticut and Suffolk County on
Long Island.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph are
possible. This may result in blowing and drifting of snow.
Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:47 am

SoulSingMG wrote: Bernie Rayno believes NAM is on to something, fwiw.

Hey I am at school for next 1.5 hours..can you give. A quick synopsis of his thoughts thanks

by **MattyICE** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:48 am

I live about 10 miles NW of 95 in NJ. I love snow...and I am hoping for a Boxing Day shift as much as the next day. I sincerely hope I’m wrong and if eating crow on Thursday means we get a foot of snow S and W of New England I’ll eat ALL the crows! But this just isn’t the evolution we need for it to be OUR storm. Even if this makes it TO the BM...it’s the origin of the LP that is the problem and the trajectory/path TO the benchmark that are equally troublesome. If a storm popped over the gulf or TN valley or Myrtle Beach and then ended up on the BM, or even slightly east, we could get into the goods more easily. Coming from the Bahamas changes everything in my mind. I agree very much with DT in that the only straw left is the analog from January 2000. 3-6 is the ceiling in 95 for me. Even with ratios. Again, I fully understand what COULD change and hope it does. But I don’t know that we can shoehorn this thing into what we want. Let’s see!

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:51 am

Those of us in hudson valley have to wait for 00z runs tonight to really see where we stand with this storm. We are now within 48 hours but I still think this will correct west a little more, especially on the globals and in particularly the GooFuS.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:52 am

MattyICE wrote:I live about 10 miles NW of 95 in NJ. I love snow...and I am hoping for a Boxing Day shift as much as the next day. I sincerely hope I’m wrong and if eating crow on Thursday means we get a foot of snow S and W of New England I’ll eat ALL the crows! But this just isn’t the evolution we need for it to be OUR storm. Even if this makes it TO the BM...it’s the origin of the LP that is the problem and the trajectory/path TO the benchmark that are equally troublesome. If a storm popped over the gulf or TN valley or Myrtle Beach and then ended up on the BM, or even slightly east, we could get into the goods more easily. Coming from the Bahamas changes everything in my mind. I agree very much with DT in that the only straw left is the analog from January 2000. 3-6 is the ceiling in 95 for me. Even with ratios. Again, I fully understand what COULD change and hope it does. But I don’t know that we can shoehorn this thing into what we want. Let’s see!

Couldn't agree more. Nice post, Matt!

by **jimv45** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:53 am

Yea hyde not giving up still think more west is very possible.

by SnowForest Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:56 am

How much snow can we expect to see near I-95 in South Jersey? Does the storm need to come West for us to see higher snowfall totals?

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:57 am

WSW for suffolk only is because they arent confident enough about a far west shift, but being that they did the issuance at this unusual time, it's likely because they feel ELI will more than definitely be getting plowable snow and they want municipalities to have enough time to prepare. After digesting data this afternoon, the watch could be extended west.

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:01 pm

At this juncture ,in the LHV, Accuweather has me for 1 to 3 inches and NWS "less than an inch".Let the games begin!!!!!!!

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:02 pm

jimv45 wrote:Yea hyde not giving up still think more west is very possible.

I think right now we could get nothing or as much as 6. I would say for us in dutchess 2-4 looks like a good bet right now especially with ratios of 15-20:1. I'm hoping for more obviously as models try to figure this out.

by **dsix85** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:03 pm

I think it's a matter of hours if not sooner that a WWA will be issues for Nassau and NYC Metro. I understand the need to not cause mass panic but to be 36 hours out from a potential snowstorm with 90% of the population not watching the models like we do is foolish should they not issue more watches.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:05 pm

Winter Storm Watches just hoisted for the entire Jersey Shore

by mwilli5783 Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:07 pm

abc bill evans has nassau county 3-6 and suffock county 6-12 inches but i think this will be updated by tonight

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:07 pm

12z UKMET is indeed west of 00z.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:12 pm

12z GEFS shifted west of 00z as well.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:17 pm

I plan to release a write up and first call snow map this evening. After looking at the latest data it's apparent NYC and points east will see a Mothrazilla on Thursday with Godzilla amounts still on the table.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:24 pm

MattyICE wrote:I live about 10 miles NW of 95 in NJ. I love snow...and I am hoping for a Boxing Day shift as much as the next day. I sincerely hope I’m wrong and if eating crow on Thursday means we get a foot of snow S and W of New England I’ll eat ALL the crows! But this just isn’t the evolution we need for it to be OUR storm. Even if this makes it TO the BM...it’s the origin of the LP that is the problem and the trajectory/path TO the benchmark that are equally troublesome. If a storm popped over the gulf or TN valley or Myrtle Beach and then ended up on the BM, or even slightly east, we could get into the goods more easily. Coming from the Bahamas changes everything in my mind. I agree very much with DT in that the only straw left is the analog from January 2000. 3-6 is the ceiling in 95 for me. Even with ratios. Again, I fully understand what COULD change and hope it does. But I don’t know that we can shoehorn this thing into what we want. Let’s see!

Matt while I understand your point and I agree to a certain degree I don't think that's the reason why will not seeing heavy precipitation make it Westward. We are missing the warm air advection snows which usually happens when the primary dies out to our Southwest and the coastal takes over. What I think is happening here is that there's an area of sinking air between the coastal low and the low over the Great Lakes which is robbing moisture from New York City on Westward. Kind of like what happened with the Juno or Nemo I forget the name of the storm. You can see that the precipitation Shield which is heavy moving up from the Delmarva due north all of a sudden Peters out. I believe with a low-pressure this strong the Northwest precipitation Shield will end up being father West but there will still be that area of sinking air between the two lows probably set up somewhere in eastern Pennsylvania Western New Jersey that's what my gut is telling me right now and what I'm seeing from the models

by **amugs** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:28 pm

NJZ013-014-020-022>027-030500-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.A.0001.180104T0200Z-180105T0000Z/
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton,
Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City,
Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
1156 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Wednesday night through late Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds may result in considerable
blowing and drifting snow. Significant reductions in visibility
are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:29 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GEFS shifted west of 00z as well.

Gefs ensemble mean is wetter than the operational big red flag there precipitation field will be further west than what the global models are showing

by Guest Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:29 pm

The LP originating in the Bahamas over 80+ degree water should add moisture to the storm guys more than if the low was inland. What about that factor?

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:47 pm

RPM is a monster for I-95 east

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:47 pm

Frank this may be a dumb question but does the potential snow for NYC include my area bronx, NE NJ?

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:RPM is a monster for I-95 east

Can you post I cannot seem to find that model on wxbell etc.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:RPM is a monster for I-95 east
Can you post I cannot seem to find that model on wxbell etc.

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 26 Img_1414

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