Re: September 2013 Observations & Discussions Thread

[Frank_Wx]

The 80's were great, accoring to my dad.

And then I came in 1992 and it all went downhill from there. Lol, jk.

[amugs]

1992 - Holy Snikes - that when I started teaching !! Doc the 1950's and 1980's have some striking parallel's and I agree Indian summer and the 80's will make a comeback in mid - late Oct they always due - I can even remember in early Nov one year we were playing in the state soccer tournament and it was 80 something degrees out.

[sroc4]

This is part of a write up by JB yesterday. IMO one of his best to date. It is technical however. The underlying tone here is based on the laws of thermodynamics. In the earths oceans, land, and atmosphere potential energy is stored in the forms of heat and moisture. On a global scale the greatest source of energy is stored and released (potential energy and kinetic energy) in the oceans and atmosphere, and major fluctuations in some of these large scale environments, esp the pacific ocean since it is the globes largest, and the atmosphere above it play a far greater role in the earths climate than any other influence.  It is much easier to gain and lose heat over land vs water due to the physical properties of water, therefore, the earths oceans are the main engines that provide the horse power to the climate of the globe. Anyone have any thoughts on this write up by JB?

"1977 is often referred to as the year of the great climatic shift, as the Pacific flipped into its warm mode, and the globe started warming.

Plainly with the PDO being colder now, that is not the case, but is a climatic shift the other way starting and is the complete downturn in tandem a sign. How can the opposite mean the same ( it does for AGW people, but in our case we can not get away with it). But humor and think about this.

Suppose the atmosphere reaches a set point where pattern repetition takes over In other words, the same general set of circumstances repeat themselves and for lack of a better word the atmosphere grows comfortable with that. What happens when what caused that balance to evolve, shifts? One would expect something different to happen, right?
I have always felt that the whole "global warming" issue is simply a case of a distortion of temperatures, where it warmed up most where its easiest to warm ( where its cold and dry) and the relatively slight drops that have occurred elsehwere are doing so in places where the drop means as much as far as the input of energy into the system as the rises are where its cold. But this distortion of the pattern, where its warm and pressures are lower further north, has to disrupt the normal process to some degree. What does the atmosphere do? It fights back. The natural swing. So if there is no need to get tropical systems to take heat into the westerlies, because its warmer further north, why do you need tropical cyclones. And if there arent tropical cyclones, what happens to the amount of moisture they are putting back into the air? It falls. What happens when that happens where its warmest and humid? It leads to dropping wet bulbs over the tropics, a natural thermostat. Suddenly the whole system collapses until the earth pushes the reset again.

Unfortunately I am good at something once it corrects me, but anticipating such things is harder. But something has reached a point where the rubber band that has been pulled is being snapped,( Dr Joel Myers of Accuweather.com used to always talk about his rubber band theory of the weather, I must credit where I have heard this..Such things are not taught today, but should be because they make sense!). You can only run the system one way so long, then it turns the other way. When it does, the first sign of it maybe occurrences that seemingly come out of nowhere. Again , the common denominator is both oceans being way down. One could understand that in 1977 the atlantic was cold, the Pacific was cold and starting to flip, but the Atlantic is warmer this year. So there must be something bigger than all this, perhaps the atmosphere pushing a reset, that needs to be considered.

I certainly see alot of worthwhile research projects coming up with some of these things. I don't have time to write long papers and get them peer reviewed, but hopefully some of the young guns reading this out there have their curiosity tweaked enough to perhaps convince their department that its worthwhile research. As I get older, I actually wish I had time to do that, and value the idea of research, its wonderful. I just think you should research items that you can test and see if there is an answer, rather than items that basically say no matter what happens, I was right. That was certainly not the case with me and this hurricane season. As clearly as I saw last year, I thought I was seeing this season with the same kind of clarity and this is really getting me to dig in. But just another thought for you all to think about, will we look back at this and say it was the year of a climatic shift, this time with the temperatures globally going the other way?

Notes and asides: Here is a thought. I just advocated that research is done on what we are seeing this year in the tropics, to come up with an answer. There was a warning shot, and I felt given all the other parameters it would be overcome and that is the ECMWFforecast for abnormally high pressures in the tropical breeding grounds at the height of the season. So there was a hint, but with all the other factors going on, alot of people felt the way I did. It stings more with me because of the problems now apparent with the preseason 400 mb idea. But this is something that I think all of us think is a question that would be valuable to know the answer too.

So why is it if Global warming is such a slam dunk, do we need to spend more money on researching that. And if you are being paid to come up with a certain answer, if the answer is not that, can you collect your pay check?

Like I said, I like the idea of research, and funding for it.. I just think that realistic applications and not 100 year pronouncements should be the goal.

thanks for reading, ciao for now"

[sroc4]

What I find interesting is how the CMC and Euro handle the ridge to the north in SE Canada as the energy with the system makes it to the south east coast and beyond.  As the s/w approaches the SE coast the Canadian ridging builds east and bridges with the South Atlantic ridge quickly effectively blocking the system from escaping OTS and also allowing it the time to concentrate the energy into a potent subtropical LP off the SE coast.  The strength of the block seems to delay the trough coming in from the west just enough as well as tilt its axis more neutral to slt neg.  This allows the system to spin up before ultimately being captured by the trough coming in from the western US in a Sandy esque maneuver causing the system to retrograde NW back to the coast.  Versus the GFS which has a much more progressive soln.  The blocking to the north never really bridges with the S Atlantic ridge allowing an escape route OTS.  Because it does not delay the energy off the SE coast as effectively it also doesn't allow the energy to concentrate like the euro and CMC show.  The trough moves to the East coast with more of a positive orientation hence the progressive steering pattern out ahead of it.  The 6z GFS vs last nights 0z was def more of a step in the Euro/CMC soln.  Im intrigued to say the least.  
500MB charts for all 3 models at 00z Sept 30th.  Notice the orientation and position relative to the coast the leading edge of the trough is. The GFS has it much farther east at this time frame.
Euro

CMC

GFS

[Frank_Wx]

Blocking is what will ultimately determine if this storm gets pulled toward the coast. The GFS being progressive does not surprise me, since that is a typical bias for it. Nice discussion Scott

[Frank_Wx]

I'm only in the low 60's right now

[Dunnzoo]

12z gfs ots but still too close for comfort for me

[Frank_Wx]

I wonder if we will get back in the 40's tonight.

[amugs]

Got down to 45* last night in Hillsdale, NENJ. Pretty chilly. Just came in from making an outdoor fire and smores tonight - could feel the cold air settlin' in.

[Dunnzoo]

42* here last night, I'm sure I'll be close to that again tonight. Just got home from my very last Back to School Night and it is chilly out for sure.

[Frank_Wx]

Letting everyone know in advance I have an extremely busy schedule tomorrow. Basically a 7am-9pm type of day. I will be checking in every now and then, but will rely on you all to keep me updated

[HectorO]

Went down, to 41 in Mahwah I believe. Was definitely chilly, I had to close my window. The next few days looks great. Another 68 degree day coming to me Thursday, and the rest of the week looks to be in the high 40s for overnight in my area. September has been pretty nice. October is one of my favorite months. Hopefully the good patter continues. I finally came back to the board, ABC finally shut down last night I believe... Bummer.

[Dunnzoo]

Hector, looks like the 7 board is still up...Wax was posting earlier....

[Frank_Wx]

Clouds coming in from the north today, providing cooler conditions

[HectorO]

Hector, looks like the 7 board is still up...Wax was posting earlier....

Weird, I keep seeing it then when I go later I don't see it.

[HectorO]

Clouds coming in from the north today, providing cooler conditions

Lots of cloud coverage here and temps are cool. Never hit 70 today for me. By the way, looks like some places might squeeze in another 80 degree day next week.

[Dunnzoo]

Spectacular end to September....since this week looks to be quiet, maybe looking at the GFS showing the rain finally coming next Sunday will give us something to do. lol

[Frank_Wx]

It's going to be close to see if Wednesday-Thursday we get into the 80's. Definitely looking like 77-79. I wouldn't be shocked if places like Newark hit 80. We'll see.

[sroc4]

Spectacular end to September....since this week looks to be quiet, maybe looking at the GFS showing the rain finally coming next Sunday will give us something to do. lol

You said it Dunnz. The last two weeks have been beautiful. A perfect transition feel to get you in the fall spirit.

[Frank_Wx]

It is safe to say September has featured impressive night time lows. This air mass feels much cooler than it should be this time of year. Feels great. No rain at all this week. We have to wait until next Sunday. Geez!!

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