JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Big jump. Northwest 6z vs 12z

All models with a nice shift Northwest today. Probably has something to do with better sampling even though the low is still offshore in the Pacific Northwest. The ukie being the best of the bunch with a nice 3 to 6 inch event for most of the area

Big shift N&W on euro. Not qute there but big improvements.

sroc4 wrote:Big shift N&W on euro.  Not qute there but big improvements.  

Saw that too. Trends over the next 24-36 hours will be interesting

aiannone wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Big shift N&W on euro.  Not qute there but big improvements.  

Saw that too. Trends over the next 24-36 hours will be interesting

Northern stream energy comes ashore in approx 24hrs. So the real deal prob starts with 12z tomorrow and beyond. For better or worse.

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Big shift N&W on euro.  Not qute there but big improvements.  

Saw that too. Trends over the next 24-36 hours will be interesting

Northern stream energy comes ashore in approx 24hrs.  So the real deal prob starts with 12z tomorrow and beyond.  For better or worse.  

Looking forward to the fun of tracking it, for better or worse lol

EPS big shift NW as well colder too! This is gaining legs.

Ok, I've been resistant to showing any interest in this event. But you guys have dragged me in. Thanks. lol

Not too enthused on this one but the 2nd-3rd has my attention!

jmanley32 wrote:Not too enthused on this one but the 2nd-3rd has my attention!

I mentioned this earlier today saying a thread should be made

2.5-3 days out, the 0Z NAM is east for the coastal low early next week. Let's see if tomorrow it does what has typically happened with coastal lows this winter which is take the low back NW within 2 days. Not saying it will happen just something to take note of.

Just checked the models after this warmup. ICON as of 0z tonight shows more impressive development into a coastal. These FROPAs have overperformed the past few years and can be very sneaky with last minute changes. GFS and CMC both very close, havent checked NAM or ECM yet. Will watch closely.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Just checked the models after this warmup. ICON as of 0z tonight shows more impressive development into a coastal. These FROPAs have overperformed the past few years and can be very sneaky with last minute changes. GFS and CMC both very close, havent checked NAM or ECM yet. Will watch closely.

You mentioned the same thing with both the 2/3/14 and 2/5/16 events days out. And guess what: they did indeed bring some nice snow to the region. This post increases my confidence in this potential snow event unfolding (don't want to jinx anything though...)

Math23x7 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Just checked the models after this warmup. ICON as of 0z tonight shows more impressive development into a coastal. These FROPAs have overperformed the past few years and can be very sneaky with last minute changes. GFS and CMC both very close, havent checked NAM or ECM yet. Will watch closely.

You mentioned the same thing with both the 2/3/14 and 2/5/16 events days out.  And guess what: they did indeed bring some nice snow to the region.  This post increases my confidence in this potential snow event unfolding (don't want to jinx anything though...)

Thank you sir 6z NAM is much closer to a big event. Coast gets into some heavier snow from a developing closer, with a little more interaction from the SW that appears to be swinging down into the OV it could be a nice moderate/potentially heavy event for a lot of us!

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Just checked the models after this warmup. ICON as of 0z tonight shows more impressive development into a coastal. These FROPAs have overperformed the past few years and can be very sneaky with last minute changes. GFS and CMC both very close, havent checked NAM or ECM yet. Will watch closely.

You mentioned the same thing with both the 2/3/14 and 2/5/16 events days out.  And guess what: they did indeed bring some nice snow to the region.  This post increases my confidence in this potential snow event unfolding (don't want to jinx anything though...)

Thank you sir 6z NAM is much closer to a big event. Coast gets into some heavier snow from a developing closer, with a little more interaction from the SW that appears to be swinging down into the OV it could be a nice moderate/potentially heavy event for a lot of us!

Does coast have mixing issues or is it cold enough

6z Nam does look good

Models over night at 00z by and large are more progressive with the trough for this event as seen by a more positive tilt when compared to the prev 24hrs of model runs where we were trending towards neutral.  The result is a surface low S&E of the BM and little to no precip into most of the area.  That being said I caution not to turn away just yet because our N stream energy will not be on shore until late morning/early afternoon at the earliest and with a propensity for models to underestimate the strength of this energy and last minute trends back N&W on s/r models with these systems all winter, like Mikey mentioned above, this threat is not dead just yet.      

skinsfan1177 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Just checked the models after this warmup. ICON as of 0z tonight shows more impressive development into a coastal. These FROPAs have overperformed the past few years and can be very sneaky with last minute changes. GFS and CMC both very close, havent checked NAM or ECM yet. Will watch closely.

You mentioned the same thing with both the 2/3/14 and 2/5/16 events days out.  And guess what: they did indeed bring some nice snow to the region.  This post increases my confidence in this potential snow event unfolding (don't want to jinx anything though...)

Thank you sir 6z NAM is much closer to a big event. Coast gets into some heavier snow from a developing closer, with a little more interaction from the SW that appears to be swinging down into the OV it could be a nice moderate/potentially heavy event for a lot of us!

Does coast have mixing issues or is it cold enough

We'll likely all be rain to start with the front end moving in tonight, the question becomes when the coastal low forms, how strong it can get and whether the precip blossoms out west as the temps crash. Some runs (like the GFS right now) show it coming together too late, meanwhile the NAM and ICON show snow breaking out in good amounts. But overall I would say the coast is far more likely to see mixing/mostly rain vs. areas further to the north (NW of 95/287)

Odds are all stacked against me for sure here. I’ll stick to my guns until 00z tonight. Those models will have sampled data.

Here is my reasoning. Before 00z overnight for the prev 24-48 hrs there were slow but steady trends at 500 towards a neutral or slight Neg trough. IMO models were chasing some convection with the southern energy out ahead so placement and development of the coastal and precip shield has been incorrect.  Now as we are within 12-24hrs of models getting true sampling of the main energy involved the new data as the leading ege of the energy starts to approach the coast creates chaos on the algorithms in the models until it’s all onshore. The result is Bernie’s windshield wiper theory in the models, solns that go back and forth.  By tonight 00z and 12z tomorrow we see the NW trend again. Ill stick with this idea until 12 z tomorrow.

sroc4 wrote:Odds are all stacked against me for sure here. I’ll stick to my guns until 00z tonight. Those models will have sampled data.

Here is my reasoning. Before 00z overnight for the prev 24-48 hrs there were slow but steady trends at 500 towards a neutral or slight Neg trough. IMO models were chasing some convection with the southern energy out ahead so placement and development of the coastal and precip shield has been incorrect.  Now as we are within 12-24hrs of models getting true sampling of the main energy involved the new data as the leading ege of the energy starts to approach the coast creates chaos on the algorithms in the models until it’s all onshore. The result is Bernie’s windshield wiper theory in the models, solns that go back and forth.  By tonight 00z and 12z tomorrow we see the NW trend again.  Ill stick with this idea until 12z tomorrow.  

Ill go down with my ship if I have to

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Odds are all stacked against me for sure here. I’ll stick to my guns until 00z tonight. Those models will have sampled data.

Here is my reasoning. Before 00z overnight for the prev 24-48 hrs there were slow but steady trends at 500 towards a neutral or slight Neg trough. IMO models were chasing some convection with the southern energy out ahead so placement and development of the coastal and precip shield has been incorrect.  Now as we are within 12-24hrs of models getting true sampling of the main energy involved the new data as the leading ege of the energy starts to approach the coast creates chaos on the algorithms in the models until it’s all onshore. The result is Bernie’s windshield wiper theory in the models, solns that go back and forth.  By tonight 00z and 12z tomorrow we see the NW trend again.  Ill stick with this idea until 12z tomorrow.  

Ill go down with my ship if I have to

Doc, I'll be your first Mate on that ship with you.Your fighting spirit is admirable!!!!

12z NAM is a step in the wrong direction. We'll see what the rest of the suite says.

I'm thinking a coating to a inch or 2 at most ate a wide

CMC and rgem headed in right direction. GFS expands precip shield better. I don't expect greatness until tomorrow.

sroc4 wrote:CMC and rgem headed in right direction.  GFS expands precip shield better.  I don't expect greatness until tomorrow.  

"Greatness"

Come on, you have proven time and again the Greatness of SROC. A site Living Legend!! (a great event (even 1 inch) would be fun)

sroc4 wrote:CMC and rgem headed in right direction.  GFS expands precip shield better.  I don't expect greatness until tomorrow.  

I'm with ya cappy - FULL STEAM AHEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Any mate not wanting or nay nay the cappin - GET OFF THE SHIP or DOC and his 3 toof will do so!!!!!!!!!!

Lol. You guys are all hilarious. Weather Mom my last two bags arrived last week! All contents accounted for but the bags were beat to shhhh