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JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:56 pm

latest SREF mean is 4.79” for Islip. About an inch higher than the last run. Interesting that it went up but latest NAM went drier. Usually they follow. 0z runs tonight will be interesting. Energy should be decently sampled also.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:45 pm

I’m with sro. NWS not buying it. They have Providence to Red Sox Suck 4”+

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:10 pm

RGEM Boyaahhhh !!
Is it onto something or did SROC hijack this model and use his kids crayons to color this map??

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 8541cb10

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Post by SnowForest Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:21 pm

@amugs wrote:RGEM Boyaahhhh !!
Is it onto something or did SROC hijack this model and use his kids crayons to color this map??

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 8541cb10

Wow, that looks great. Am I correct in assuming that ratios will be at 10:1? If so, that means those in bright green would have 4-6 inches. Sign me up!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:33 pm

anyone around...
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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:04 pm

0z Suite:

GFS 0z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Gfs0z10

GFS 18z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Gfs18z10

NAM 0z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Nam0z10

NAM 18z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Nam18z10

CMC 0z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Cmc_0z10

CMC 12z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Cmc12z10

SREF 21z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Sref10

Looks like a tick west with the 0z guidance. Energy should be sampled by now so will be interesting to see what tomorrow's guidance does


Last edited by aiannone on Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:10 pm

No Frank posts, no rb posts, no aMugs harping on it. Doesn’t feel like anything promising

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:No Frank posts, no rb posts, no aMugs harping on it. Doesn’t feel like anything promising

Geez, just a Syos post about there not being any posts. Snow potential wise that is disheartening.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:27 pm

Your avatar is soooooo creepy CP

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:07 am

I think I had too much to drink already. Goodnight.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:38 am

syosnow94 wrote:Your avatar is soooooo creepy CP

Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:09 am

I'm seeing a progressive trend today, most models showing the storm remaining disconnected and disorganized. With the exception of CMC ticking west, a decent UKIE, and some SREF members, it's mostly a non-event. This doesn't mean a storm still couldn't form, it will be there, but apparently weak. Will monitor today for last minute changes but it doesn't look great as of now besides for some backend snow showers coming thru with the clipper system. So close to a phase with the coastal but no cigar.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:04 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I'm seeing a progressive trend today, most models showing the storm remaining disconnected and disorganized. With the exception of CMC ticking west, a decent UKIE, and some SREF members, it's mostly a non-event. This doesn't mean a storm still couldn't form, it will be there, but apparently weak. Will monitor today for last minute changes but it doesn't look great as of now besides for some backend snow showers coming thru with the clipper system. So close to a phase with the coastal but no cigar.

I would have to agree with this Tom.  I got a little encouraged last night when I saw the RGEM/CMC and a subtle tick west with some of the other models, but the reality is that phasing and precip expansion from a deepening coastal is going to occurring just a tad bit too late as the low passes east of the BM it appears.  The dynamics just aren't there as the energy passes off the coast with the trough likely to still be in a positive orientation.  There may be some light precip esp for coastal sections, but with light precip you don't get the dynamic cooling.  Eventhough 925 & 850 looks to be cold enough surface temps along the coast look to be mid 30's +/- so maybe there will be some light snow showers that don't amount to much along the I-95 corridor with a coating possible on colder surfaces.  This really should come as no surprise, although I wont lie and say I'm not a little disappointed, as the pattern was never ready for this to materialize and expectations were always to remain low with this one.  I personally consider this a win in a sense that it was something recognized as a mere potential 10-11days out in an overall crappy pattern and here we are 24hr-36hrs out talking about how it was close. (although I'm sure there are some of you who would argue it never was close).  Yes it was.  Close to a 1-3" event for some for sure.  And it still is close, but likely not close enough.  

In reality its nothing gained nothing lost.  There is still a very small window for last minute changes back west and a stronger SLP with an expanded precip shield, but I'm not counting on much.  With that said get out while you can as this ship is going down and Im staying with it.  lol

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 TemptingGeneralEquine-size_restricted

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:53 am

12z CMC won’t back down lol
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 A0d67e10
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:17 pm

where is NYC getting their weather from lol
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Captur18
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:25 pm

@aiannone wrote:where is NYC getting their weather from lol
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Captur18

Probably guys who are helping other guys get overtime,LOL!
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:44 pm

@aiannone wrote:where is NYC getting their weather from lol
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Captur18

Taxpayers money well spent....

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:56 pm

12z Euro running. A bit west through 33
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:58 pm

12z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Captur41

0z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Captur42
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:03 pm

Ukie is 1 to 4" from Northeast New Jersey East through Eastern Long Island highest amount East all models ticked West at 12 Z wouldn't take much more of a tick West to get some snow into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:02 pm

18z NAM running west through 25
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:03 pm

18z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Nam18z11

12z:
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Nam12z10
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:07 pm

Well hello
JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Nam18z12
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:09 pm

JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT? - Page 3 Nam18z13
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:11 pm

Yes Alex the nam is way west of 12 Z
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