JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

sroc4 wrote:CMC and rgem headed in right direction.  GFS expands precip shield better.  I don't expect greatness until tomorrow.  

I'm with ya cappy - FULL STEAM AHEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Any mate not wanting or nay nay the cappin - GET OFF THE SHIP or DOC and his 3 toof will do so!!!!!!!!!!

Lol. You guys are all hilarious. Weather Mom my last two bags arrived last week! All contents accounted for but the bags were beat to shhhh

latest SREF mean is 4.79” for Islip. About an inch higher than the last run. Interesting that it went up but latest NAM went drier. Usually they follow. 0z runs tonight will be interesting. Energy should be decently sampled also.

I’m with sro. NWS not buying it. They have Providence to Red Sox Suck 4”+

RGEM Boyaahhhh !!
Is it onto something or did SROC hijack this model and use his kids crayons to color this map??

amugs wrote:RGEM Boyaahhhh !!
Is it onto something or did SROC hijack this model and use his kids crayons to color this map??

Wow, that looks great. Am I correct in assuming that ratios will be at 10:1? If so, that means those in bright green would have 4-6 inches. Sign me up!

anyone around...

0z Suite:

GFS 0z:


GFS 18z:


NAM 0z:


NAM 18z:


CMC 0z:


CMC 12z:


SREF 21z:


Looks like a tick west with the 0z guidance. Energy should be sampled by now so will be interesting to see what tomorrow's guidance does

No Frank posts, no rb posts, no aMugs harping on it. Doesn’t feel like anything promising

syosnow94 wrote:No Frank posts, no rb posts, no aMugs harping on it. Doesn’t feel like anything promising

Geez, just a Syos post about there not being any posts. Snow potential wise that is disheartening.

Your avatar is soooooo creepy CP

I think I had too much to drink already. Goodnight.

syosnow94 wrote:Your avatar is soooooo creepy CP

I'm seeing a progressive trend today, most models showing the storm remaining disconnected and disorganized. With the exception of CMC ticking west, a decent UKIE, and some SREF members, it's mostly a non-event. This doesn't mean a storm still couldn't form, it will be there, but apparently weak. Will monitor today for last minute changes but it doesn't look great as of now besides for some backend snow showers coming thru with the clipper system. So close to a phase with the coastal but no cigar.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I'm seeing a progressive trend today, most models showing the storm remaining disconnected and disorganized. With the exception of CMC ticking west, a decent UKIE, and some SREF members, it's mostly a non-event. This doesn't mean a storm still couldn't form, it will be there, but apparently weak. Will monitor today for last minute changes but it doesn't look great as of now besides for some backend snow showers coming thru with the clipper system. So close to a phase with the coastal but no cigar.

I would have to agree with this Tom.  I got a little encouraged last night when I saw the RGEM/CMC and a subtle tick west with some of the other models, but the reality is that phasing and precip expansion from a deepening coastal is going to occurring just a tad bit too late as the low passes east of the BM it appears.  The dynamics just aren't there as the energy passes off the coast with the trough likely to still be in a positive orientation.  There may be some light precip esp for coastal sections, but with light precip you don't get the dynamic cooling.  Eventhough 925 & 850 looks to be cold enough surface temps along the coast look to be mid 30's +/- so maybe there will be some light snow showers that don't amount to much along the I-95 corridor with a coating possible on colder surfaces.  This really should come as no surprise, although I wont lie and say I'm not a little disappointed, as the pattern was never ready for this to materialize and expectations were always to remain low with this one.  I personally consider this a win in a sense that it was something recognized as a mere potential 10-11days out in an overall crappy pattern and here we are 24hr-36hrs out talking about how it was close. (although I'm sure there are some of you who would argue it never was close).  Yes it was.  Close to a 1-3" event for some for sure.  And it still is close, but likely not close enough.  

In reality its nothing gained nothing lost.  There is still a very small window for last minute changes back west and a stronger SLP with an expanded precip shield, but I'm not counting on much.  With that said get out while you can as this ship is going down and Im staying with it.  lol

12z CMC won’t back down lol

where is NYC getting their weather from lol

aiannone wrote:where is NYC getting their weather from lol

Probably guys who are helping other guys get overtime,LOL!

aiannone wrote:where is NYC getting their weather from lol

Taxpayers money well spent....

12z Euro running. A bit west through 33

12z:


0z:

Ukie is 1 to 4" from Northeast New Jersey East through Eastern Long Island highest amount East all models ticked West at 12 Z wouldn't take much more of a tick West to get some snow into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning

18z NAM running west through 25

18z:


12z:

Well hello

Yes Alex the nam is way west of 12 Z