March 2nd Nor'easter Update

While we wait, Too bad this isn't already in the air, maybe for next winter

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/goes-s-weather-satellite-to-launch-thursday-afternoon-amid-dry-weather/70004275

crippo84 wrote:Everybody get a drink or two in your system while it's quiet. It'll make great model runs that much more enjoyable or dull the pain of bad model runs. We all know the anticipation is building.

Already did that, just came back from the local Irish pub!

Here is the evening forecast discussion from NWS Mount Holly:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BIG day for the staff coordinating hazards and grids in the
start of the long term. A great team effort! Strong low pressure
will move along the offshore waters Thursday night and into
Saturday. This low will bring heavy rains, higher elevation
snows, strong winds and coastal flooding between Thursday night
and Saturday. A variety of flags have been issued this afternoon
and briefing packages will be sent as soon as they are ready.
Friday promises to be a significant weather day across the area,
pay attention to upcoming forecasts and strongly consider
avoiding unnecessary travel across the area Friday. Watches are
issued to alert you to prepare, respond accordingly.

Steady precip associated with the weak sfc low to the west will
continue over the area Thursday night as the second low
strengthens off the coast. Temperatures will be warm enough for
all rain most of Thu night, but then the colder air will begin
to move southward across the Poconos by dawn Friday. The colder
air will only deepen Friday, so a WSW Watch flag for
accumulating snow is being issued. Some of the bufkit profiles
are suggesting 5 to 7 inches could occur. It will be a wet heavy
snow. Confid in accumulating snow further south is low (but not
zero) attm. The 12Z NAM model continued its cold solution for
snow much further south.

QPF totals are higher N/E and with the already wet ground, a
Flood Watch is being issued for these area. See the hydro
section below. Also, strong winds and favorable tide cycle will
translate to Coastal flood hazards for the region. See the
coastal hazards section below. Flood flags have been coordinated
with OKX and AKQ.

Winds will become gusty from S/W to N/E Friday. A high winds watch
has been issued for Srn and Ern areas with the higher confidence
in those areas. It will still be plenty gusty elsewhere, just little
confid in warning criteria in those areas. Gusts 50 to 60 mph in
the Watch areas possible. Bufkit profiles, especially for the 12z
GFS, are rather robust for winds this model cycle. Our NPW flags
will align with our neighboring offices too.

Drinking on school nights shame on you all lol

algae888 wrote:I mentioned a few days ago Christmas day in the early 2000s that's what this setup reminds me of well that was December 25th 2002 rained all day switched over to snow between 3 and 4 p.m. ended up  with close to a foot in my backyard the pine trees look like they were ready to break one of my favorite storms of all time and my top analog for this storm very marginal temps to work with storm exploded just east of Long Island

Wth AL I said this 3x on here. Trying to steal my thunder LOL and another an log storm 2011 October before halloween6

A large chunk of Mount Holly's area is Central NJ, Southeast PA and the Lehigh Valley, but also includes all of South Jersey and I believe northern Delaware. So when they express low confidence in accumulating snow "south", that is well south of here. When they talk about travel difficulties Friday I think they are likely referring to Central NJ and Philly's northern suburbs. That covers most of the people on here who are in the Mount Holly zone.

billg315 wrote:A large chunk of Mount Holly's area is Central NJ, Southeast PA and the Lehigh Valley, but also includes all of South Jersey and I believe northern Delaware. So when they express low confidence in accumulating snow "south", that is well south of here. When they talk about travel difficulties Friday I think they are likely referring to Central NJ and Philly's northern suburbs. That covers most of the people on here who are in the Mount Holly zone.

Sussex county will probably have the higher end of their totals

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hey clan -

Here is a quick blog on Friday's storm. A snow impact map is found at the end. I will have a 1st call snow map released either tonight or tomorrow. Leaning toward tonight.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/march-roaring-in-powerful-noreaster.html

Feel free to ask questions

Best,

Francesco

Thanks Frank!!!! GREAT RIGHT UP  and FANTASTIC CHOICE OF MUSIC!

Love this type of music. U2, Journey, Foreigner, Beegees, etc.

billg315 wrote:Frank, any thoughts on accumulation issues with warm surface and March daylight? Or do you think the snow will be heavy enough to overcome any of those issues? I think in areas where it changes by around daybreak it should accumulate quickly, but areas with a later changeover it could take awhile initially to start sticking.

It's going to be a heavy wet pasty type of snow. It will accumulate.

algae888 wrote:the weaker primary ended up in west Virginia because it couldn't penetrate the block. this trend has been ongoing for the last several days on most models. the weaker primary also limits the degree of WAA so we cool down quicker.  keep looking for that trend

Exactly

dsix85 wrote:What's the time frame we are looking at?

billg315 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:What's the time frame we are looking at?

Right now, if we are going by the NAM solution, it looks like rain begins around 6 or 7 tomorrow evening. It rains through the night. Starting around 4 a.m. it starts changing to snow in the northwestern areas. By 7 a.m. a good part of NJ is over to snow. By mid-to-late morning everyone is snow except maybe eastern Long Island.

Bill answered accurately

syosnow94 wrote:I just finished golfing. I don’t know what to believe. Frank is in on it now which gives hope. I’m completely mind effed. Don’t know what to believe. Expecting rain

Keep expectations low so when tomorrow's runs show rain you won't biatch.


...jk

nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg going with 1-3 inches NYC  and immediate suburbs with 3-6 inches in a line from I-287 north and west. He did say he's not very confident with forecast amounts though and could be adjusted upwards.

Could get 3 inches in 2 hours if NAM is right

Earthlight:
Oodles aren't done adjusting and for the better!!!

00z NAM coming in more amplified than 18z. Let's see what it shows...

amugs wrote:Earthlight:
Oodles aren't done adjusting and for the better!!!

dear lord.....wow

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM coming in more amplified than 18z. Let's see what it shows...

does it matter primary is dig more North than 18z?

There is always an area of dry air over PA or interior NJ with Miller B storms. Keep that in mind...

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM coming in more amplified than 18z. Let's see what it shows...

does it matter primary is dig more North than 18z?

The primary being north means an earlier phase and more warm air over our region. I prefer a late phaser so the primary is weak and more cold sticks around

Much larger swath of snow from back end into great lakes.

Shoot was hoping this would be a better run or hold serve.

Way to close to long island shoot we went backwards. Not good 24 hrs away.

Not a good run. Stronger primary, slower transfer, H5 closes off later. Awful trend.

[quote="Frank_Wx"]

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Hey clan -

Here is a quick blog on Friday's storm. A snow impact map is found at the end. I will have a 1st call snow map released either tonight or tomorrow. Leaning toward tonight.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/march-roaring-in-powerful-noreaster.html

Feel free to ask questions

Best,

Francesco

Thanks Frank!!!! GREAT RIGHT UP  and FANTASTIC CHOICE OF MUSIC!

Love this type of music. U2, Journey, Foreigner, Beegees, etc.

ha ha....going to date myself....seen them all in concert...except bee gees....bono I have pics standing right in front of me...at one of the concerts...

Frank_Wx wrote:Not a good run. Stronger primary, slower transfer, H5 closes off later. Awful trend.

is it a trend or one run? Ugg this always happens this place is going to cry to sleep.

Frank_Wx wrote:Not a good run. Stronger primary, slower transfer, H5 closes off later. Awful trend.

oh no

Rb u were wrong my friend but it's okay we all make mistakes. Hopefully it's the model run and not you. Shows u not to get ur hopes up even when things looking to trend better only to go bad 24 hrs till.

I disagree Frank. H5 actually looks better than 18z did.

GUYS THIS BACKFILLS!!!!! RELAX!!

Woah actually this still looks really good and winds at 850 go all way I to upstate wow! Heavy snow down to coast 977 mb

I don't think that run is awful. I think it is in the ballpark of the previous run. Maybe a few slight differences that may not be favorable, but nothing I'm going to jump of the bandwagon for. Especially knowing we have about 4 more model runs before the storm is upon us.