March 2nd Nor'easter Update

00z UKIE is huge, even for the City so I am hearing. No maps to post yet.

SoulSingMG wrote:00z UKIE is huge, even for the City so I am hearing. No maps to post yet.

omg soul soul hrdps!!! Lp deepens sooner NYC getting crushed omg wow!!!

12 plus NYC and still snowing 973 mb!!! Winds insane all out b word. All I can say is and Bernie did a video earlier that if you have a sub 978 mb lp in that position the ccb will b dumping over NYC and he said NYC has enough precip to get a foot of snow. His map is less but I felt like he really wanted to up it.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:00z UKIE is huge, even for the City so I am hearing. No maps to post yet.

omg soul soul hrdps!!! Lp deepens sooner NYC getting crushed omg wow!!!

Guys, all giddiness aside, I am getting truly concerned about the coastal flooding aspect of this storm. This ain't just any nor'easter and I think many will be taken by dangerous surprise due to the severity of not only the coastal flooding but the long duration TROPICAL STORM force, to potentially hurricane force gust, winds.

Dear lord there's still many hrs to go after that!! Easily 2 ft for us soul!!! Unreal

adamfitz1969 wrote:

this!!! The snow comes in earlier to coast NYC gets crushed there's 15 inches already and look how much more!!! I'm.having palpitations lol

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:00z UKIE is huge, even for the City so I am hearing. No maps to post yet.

omg soul soul hrdps!!! Lp deepens sooner NYC getting crushed omg wow!!!

Guys, all giddiness aside, I am getting truly concerned about the coastal flooding aspect of this storm. This ain't just any nor'easter and I think many will be taken by dangerous surprise due to the severity of not only the coastal flooding but the long duration TROPICAL STORM force, to potentially hurricane force gust, winds.

nws has the coastal flooding level at extreme. Their highest level. Winds at elevated but if the name and hdrps pan out we could b see gusts even into NYC over 60 mph.

jmanley32 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:

this!!! The snow comes in earlier to coast NYC gets crushed there's 15 inches already and look how much more!!! I'm.having palpitations lol

And it's just pouring rain in New England the whole time.

I'll say it for the last time this has February 25-26 2010 written all over it. At least I'm hoping it does.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:

this!!! The snow comes in earlier to coast NYC gets crushed there's 15 inches already and look how much more!!! I'm.having palpitations lol

And it's just pouring rain in New England the whole time.

I'll say it for the last time this has February 25-26 2010 written all over it. At least I'm hoping it does.

this is literally one of the most nuts runs of storms I've seen. This gif is a thing of beauty. I really hope this plays out. Who knows maybe we get down to 970 mb dare I say sub 970. This is just heading to where everyone from the very tip of li west sees huge snow and east of there rain but also the worst damage.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:

this!!! The snow comes in earlier to coast NYC gets crushed there's 15 inches already and look how much more!!! I'm.having palpitations lol

And it's just pouring rain in New England the whole time.

I'll say it for the last time this has February 25-26 2010 written all over it. At least I'm hoping it does.

this is literally one of the most nuts runs of storms I've seen. This gif is a thing of beauty. I really hope this plays out. Who knows maybe we get down to 970 mb dare I say sub 970. This is just heading to where everyone from the very tip of li west sees huge snow and east of there rain but also the worst damage.

The rain/snow configuration in that map is almost identical to the Feb 25-26 2010 storm.

If you remember NYC received 21 inches from that storm up here we got 3 feet and there was 5 feet in parts of the Catskills. Most of New England received a drenching rain and almost no snow.

Anyone have a total precip map for the Ukie? Not a snow map.

And the 0Z EURO shows no snow for NYC from this system.

00z Euro - no snow? Is that true?

Does it show snow for NNJ?

I think the EURO just hiccuped here. Midlevels looked fine to me

Anyone have a snow map from the Euro to post?

WeatherBob wrote:Anyone have a snow map from the Euro to post?

Frozen qpf through hr 54:

RB - you think the low level easterly fetch is overwhelming the dynamics at the mid - levels on this run?

Math- from that map my suspicions above have been realized.. Gotta see tmrws runs to verify.

I think it is due to that double barrel low it shows. If it was one center, there would not be as much low level easterly fetch.

A double barrel low is not a bad thing always, but in this scenario, they would have to be on a NNE axis along the coast to keep the flow more Northerly. Let’s see what she looks like tmrw.

When do you think NYC and lower Westchester and parts of long island will get winter storm watches or advisory go up

frank 638 wrote:When do you think NYC and lower Westchester and parts of long island will get winter storm watches or advisory go up

Until there's a better consensus I'm not sure they will. The earliest would most likely be 4 PM today if it does. The 12Z runs and the short term models around that time will have a lot to say about that. Bad Euro run last night for most.

WSW in Orange and Passiac Counties now.

Ok thanks cp hopefully we will get a nice surprise for us

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

frank 638 wrote:When do you think NYC and lower Westchester and parts of long island will get winter storm watches or advisory go up

Until there's a better consensus I'm not sure they will. The earliest would most likely be 4 PM today if it does. The 12Z runs and the short term models around that time will have a lot to say about that. Bad Euro run last night for most.

WSW in Orange and Passiac Counties now.

yep bad trends overnight. however I believe we snow down to the coast. how much is the big question. I love the position of the low and ccb but the primary has strengthened overnight so we have to overcome a very marginal airmass. I still think we do it here at the coast but inland looks solid right now... nws disco...
The 00z model data is clustering the rapidly deepening low
invof the benchmark at 18z Fri. This grouping includes the GEM,
GFS including ensembles, and ECMWF. The NAM is farther n, only
a few miles from Nantucket. The sly track as a result has been
favored for the fcst.

The mid 970s low over the benchmark, dropping into the 960s as
the sys drifts sewd late Fri, will produce high winds across the
area. The watch was upgraded to a wrng for ern CT and LI, with
the watch expanded to most of the remaining area. The height of
the storm for wind still looks to be aft 18Z thru the first half of
Fri ngt. 2k ft agl winds in the GFS are over 74kt at Montauk, so
gusts have been set at 70 mph in the wrng.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Orange and wrn
Passaic counties. The dynamic cooling and advection of a colder
airmass cannot be ignored. The NAM, although an outlier wrt
track, is more aggressive with the magnitude of cooling with
the sys. Collaboration with WPC suggests the NAM historically
overdoes the amount of cooling, so this output is not favored.
However, thermal profile margins of around a degree or two are
the difference between hvy rain and hvy snow with this storm.
With the track consensus consolidating, more snow was added to
the fcst for nwrn zones, particularly the higher elevations.
Although the probability is low based on the 00z model data
being used, any downward trend in the thermal profile could lead
to much more snowfall across the majority of the area. A strong
cstl front should set up across sern CT and ern LI, so areas w
of this boundary will be the ones to watch.

Ugh 06 z nam not good for us Al. A few inches at best but go just north and totals start ramp up quick. Wow 70 mph gusts eastern CT on east that's crazy.

Hrdps 06z def not as much snow coverage as 00z not good trends overnight nor this morning ugh. Coastal flooding advisory only so I guess their concern for coastal impacts has also been reduced.