March 2nd Nor'easter Update

RGEM caves


And NAM shows b conditions Friday commuting for NNJ

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze.  Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

This map is perfect. 15” for me. Only 6-10” for Jman and amugs.  1-2” for sroc4. Hahahaha. Sign me up

By the way. The last 4 maps have my parents in nw Ulster County anywhere from 23-38”

I am okay with this map, coupled with the cooresponding wind map it would be a heck of a storm, and you go lose your lights for that my friend lol jk and actually where im located is more like 8-14 if you look close.

amugs wrote:RGEM caves


And NAM shows b conditions Friday commuting for NNJ

I posted rgem snow map, its all rain, verbatim.

Did frank see the start of the NAM bang his head and pass out? Frank you okay? You made one short comment and disappeared, you best have a good explanation lol. Want to hear what you ythink versus rays comments.

Great job guys! Been following non Stop. Tough storm you boys are doing a hell of a job!

jmanley32 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze.  Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

This map is perfect. 15” for me. Only 6-10” for Jman and amugs.  1-2” for sroc4. Hahahaha. Sign me up

By the way. The last 4 maps have my parents in nw Ulster County anywhere from 23-38”

I am okay with this map, coupled with the cooresponding wind map it would be a heck of a storm, and you go lose your lights for that my friend lol jk and actually where im located is more like 8-14 if you look close.

Jman if you look even closer his parents in Ulster county get about 2 inches on that map. They're in the blue scroo zone there.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze.  Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

This map is perfect. 15” for me. Only 6-10” for Jman and amugs.  1-2” for sroc4. Hahahaha. Sign me up

By the way. The last 4 maps have my parents in nw Ulster County anywhere from 23-38”

I am okay with this map, coupled with the cooresponding wind map it would be a heck of a storm, and you go lose your lights for that my friend lol jk and actually where im located is more like 8-14 if you look close.

Jman if you look even closer his parents in Ulster county get about 2 inches on that map. They're in the blue scroo zone there.

lol ehh at this point who knows and this map is very sensitive and any slight changes in banding will mean a world of changes to it. just thought id post it.

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-011145-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1033 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Friday and Friday night, with the strongest winds
from Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Think about this as per our TV pro mets,
We can go from a flood watch to a wsw the way Upton goes in a one update the way this bad, bad boy is trending.
See ya in da morning for Al's 2 pages of posts at 4 AM!!
Gonna need some rest peeps. Gonna be a cool of long nights but exiliarating ones. Oh and we go again next week.

Gfs delayed

Wow Nick Gregory gave nw nj 3 inches only..rest of us rain in nj

Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z RGEM brings snow closer to NYC than the 18Z RGEM but it's still a mainly rain event for NYC.  Keep in mind that with the March sun, snow with marginal temperatures will struggle to stick unless your dealing with high rates.  Now, if the steady snow waits until Friday evening, then I can see it accumulating.  But I'm not excited about potential snow in NYC...yet.

Not true, mikey. Once you overcome the initial layer, you will accumulate. The snow is going to have such a high water content especially at first, and the aggregate flakes will be so large, they will not be able to melt rapidly, and therefore quickly overcome the thermal imbalance. Once that process is established, it can snow lightly and still accumulate because it falls on snow that is freezing. Obviously warmer surfaces will take longer, but cars, grass, trees, etc. will not take long at all.

Like RB said, don,t focus so much on the snow amounts right now, focus what the model is saying on where the snow will fall. The exact location of the heavy snow with banding is still to be determined.  However, looking at the 700 mb on the NAM , you can make a few guesses but it not locked and loaded with this extremely dynamic system.  I did say yesterday, NWS NY will wait till the tmrw morning model runs to make any substantial changes to their snow forecast unless the GFS does an about face and realizes the true dynamics of the system, thus cooling the column over us to the surface like the other models are doing If that happens, they will adjust their snow forecast tmrw morning.

Lee Goldberg is the only Met I've seen talking about the heavy snow aspect...

Radz wrote:Lee Goldberg is the only Met I've seen talking about the heavy snow aspect...

he is good.

GFS LOSES...........AGAIN. CAVED TO THE OTHERS. Let's see how your outlets handle this now lmao

Well aloft it caved. Surface maps still don't show it lol

rb924119 wrote:Well aloft it caved. Surface maps still don't show it lol

oh for goofus sakes!! My guess tomorrow midday Wind Watches go to warnings and get extended inland, WSW go to warnings, some places go straight to warnings no time for watches and its game on...my hope anyways. I am unable to look at my phone from 8am till 12:30 or so then I have 15 min or so till 2pm. Go be hard day LOL

I usually don’t make snow forecasts, but I can see widespread 6 to 10 inches for NNJ just due to the wet nature of the snow. Won’t be surprised to see 12 to 14 in higher elevations of Passaic ,  Morris and Sussex counties.  That’s all I am gonna say about snowfall totals unless something catches my eye on tmrw mornings runs. I just want to sit back and enjoy the storm.

WeatherBob wrote:I usually don’t make snow forecasts, but I can see widespread 6 to 10 inches for NNJ just due to the wet nature of the snow. Won’t be surprised to see 12 to 14 in higher elevations of Passaic ,  Morris and Sussex counties.  That’s all I am gonna say about snowfall totals unless something catches my eye on tmrw mornings runs.  I just want to sit back and enjoy the storm.

I totally respect your input, but in all honesty, I can easily see how those numbers are doubled here. Not even kidding. Not saying it's GOING to happen definitively, as I have not been able to and cannot look at those details, but given everything I have, I'm probably 50-50 with it. It definitely would not surprise me, I'll put it that way lol

rb924119 wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:I usually don’t make snow forecasts, but I can see widespread 6 to 10 inches for NNJ just due to the wet nature of the snow. Won’t be surprised to see 12 to 14 in higher elevations of Passaic ,  Morris and Sussex counties.  That’s all I am gonna say about snowfall totals unless something catches my eye on tmrw mornings runs.  I just want to sit back and enjoy the storm.

I totally respect your input, but in all honesty, I can easily see how those numbers are doubled here. Not even kidding. Not saying it's GOING to happen definitively, as I have not been able to and  cannot look at those details, but given everything I have, I'm probably 50-50 with it. It definitely would not surprise me, I'll put it that way lol

what do you feel the ceiling here could b?

RB - your the best and I respect your opinion too.  Like I said, if in tmrwsruns, something catches my eye, I am all “ears”.  One more note,  the GFS has been very persistent in previous model runs in showing the 500 MB cut off in almost the exact spot like on the latest runs.  I think it is just suffering from the “shakes” and will will see if it gets over its “hangover” on tmrw’s runs.

I really only have been focusing on the 500 and 700 maps to make my forecast form this particular storm. Also , I am only forecasting for NNJ since that is what I am comfortable and familiar with.

Frankdp23 wrote:Gfs delayed

...is Gfs denied!

Welcome aboard Frank!

Apparently this is the forum for people named Frank.

00z UKIE is huge, even for the City so I am hearing. No maps to post yet.

SoulSingMG wrote:00z UKIE is huge, even for the City so I am hearing. No maps to post yet.

omg soul soul hrdps!!! Lp deepens sooner NYC getting crushed omg wow!!!