March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

One thing I have noticed with time is the inverse correlation between the SREF snow trend and the NAM snow trend. Take late last night for example. The 3Z SREF snow mean for NYC decreased while the 6Z NAM snow for NYC increased. Then late morning, while the 9Z SREF snow mean for NYC increased, the 12Z NAM snow for NYC decreased.

The 15Z SREF snow mean for NYC increased. If the correlation persists, the 18Z NAM snow for NYC would decrease.

Math23x7 wrote:One thing I have noticed with time is the inverse correlation between the SREF snow trend and the NAM snow trend.  Take late last night for example.  The 3Z SREF snow mean for NYC decreased while the 6Z NAM snow for NYC increased.  Then late morning, while the 9Z SREF snow mean for NYC increased, the 12Z NAM snow for NYC decreased.

The 15Z SREF snow mean for NYC increased.  If the correlation persists, the 18Z NAM snow for NYC would decrease.

I was just about to comment on this hahaha how different they are for being based on the dynamical core. 18z running now!

Just want to Know​ is this storm for wed in to Thursday morning or wed in to wed night

12z NAM vs 18z NAM

Looks like heights are lower on the 18z NAM which to me suggests a storm track that will end up east of 12z. We will see. We may see the 18z NAM come into agreement with the EURO/EPS/UKIE

frank 638 wrote:Just want to Know​ is this storm for wed in to Thursday morning or wed in to wed night

Wed into Wed night

Thi is going to ocme more east - could be a EURo type

Thank u frank

amugs wrote:Thi is going to ocme more east - could be a EURo type

Living in Western Suffolk County the Euro solution works well for me!

Inspired by Syos I may do a snow map for this event. If I can figure out how to do the graphics part of it. I want it to look at least as good as his map.

Its still an 18z run, and as I've noticed these off-hour runs seem to be alternating with their 00/12z counterparts

NAM is going to be a NYC Metro Crusher an east tick to this - just like SYO mentioned and prayed for and put out good juju for!

HOLY SMOKES!!!!!!!!

CCB setting up already jesus!!

WHOA!

Nam 95 crusher!!

This weather hobby can really stress u out

Should be banter but monday can be just as good

The low retrogrades before it heads NE

That got to be a better run for coadt

Nam caves to euro and ukie

Frank_Wx wrote:

Same time frame. Looks like dry slot over Long Island

Frank If it retrogrades does mean longer duration?

skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam caves to euro and ukie

I would NOT say this lol it's an 18z run, a stated earlier everything else has come toward the NAM/GFS while they have maintained. If 00z looks like this, then I'd agree. But I tend to think it won't. Remarkable run, nonetheless.