Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

by Guest Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:33 am

Congratulations Kid. Good job. Hope to hear great things and looking forward to your tracking with us this winter.

I’m having A REAL HARD TIME with all this wasted cold. And now we get 2” of qpf in the form of rain after 10+ days of below normal temps AND the possible threat for Monday has trended poorly on the most recent model runs. OTI SANITARIUM FOR ME

by **dkodgis** Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:37 am

A good Pilsner works wonders...just sayin’

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:49 am

syosnow94 wrote:Congratulations Kid. Good job. Hope to hear great things and looking forward to your tracking with us this winter.

I’m having A REAL HARD TIME with all this wasted cold. And now we get 2” of qpf in the form of rain after 10+ days of below normal temps AND the possible threat for Monday has trended poorly on the most recent model runs. OTI SANITARIUM FOR ME

Just remember everything is right on track. This is the very much predicted from a long time ago anticipated "warm up" and relax/reload period to the pattern.
Anthything that is sqeeked out between now and Xmas is gravy. Everything is still very much on track for the time frame around Xmas through the new year and beyond. Dont fret. All you need is a little......

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:51 am

And Monday is not dead yet, although coastal plain should keep expectations low

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:59 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Congratulations Kid. Good job. Hope to hear great things and looking forward to your tracking with us this winter.

I’m having A REAL HARD TIME with all this wasted cold. And now we get 2” of qpf in the form of rain after 10+ days of below normal temps AND the possible threat for Monday has trended poorly on the most recent model runs. OTI SANITARIUM FOR ME

Just remember everything is right on track. This is the very much predicted from a long time ago anticipated "warm up" and relax/reload period to the pattern.
Anthything that is sqeeked out between now and Xmas is gravy. Everything is still very much on track for the time frame around Xmas through the new year and beyond. Dont fret. All you need is a little......

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh, Doc,keep this under your hat.The OTI Sanitarium is booming right now and we need the business after Novembers slow period!

by mwilli5783 Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:18 am

congrats alex

by **HectorO** Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:46 am

docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Congratulations Kid. Good job. Hope to hear great things and looking forward to your tracking with us this winter.

I’m having A REAL HARD TIME with all this wasted cold. And now we get 2” of qpf in the form of rain after 10+ days of below normal temps AND the possible threat for Monday has trended poorly on the most recent model runs. OTI SANITARIUM FOR ME

Just remember everything is right on track. This is the very much predicted from a long time ago anticipated "warm up" and relax/reload period to the pattern.
Anthything that is sqeeked out between now and Xmas is gravy. Everything is still very much on track for the time frame around Xmas through the new year and beyond. Dont fret. All you need is a little......

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh, Doc,keep this under your hat.The OTI Sanitarium is booming right now and we need the business after Novembers slow period!

Truth is, that snowstorm just happened a month too early. I'll admit storms that early get me thinking that December will (especially before Christmas) be a bust for snow, like the way many of us think when a storm happens in October. Also I see a lot of people claiming November was their first event of the season. But can that be? How early is too early before it's not considered the season yet? Considering that the meteorological winter hadn't even begun at that time yet.

by Guest Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:59 am

dkodgis wrote:A good Pilsner works wonders...just sayin’

Trust me
I know

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:21 am

Hey, how is everyone?

by **frank 638** Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:52 am

Quietace wrote:Hey, how is everyone?

excellent I am new uncle my sister had her first new baby boy his name is Anthony Michael he is 6 pounds 6 ounces

by Guest Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:54 am

Quietace wrote:Hey, how is everyone?

Horrendous and pissed off. Two full weeks of temps in the 30s and zero precip. Now it’s gonna rain for a few days.

How are you buddy

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:32 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Hey, how is everyone?

Horrendous and pissed off. Two full weeks of temps in the 30s and zero precip. Now it’s gonna rain for a few days.

How are you buddy

by **amugs** Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:41 am

Alex congrats kid way to go!! Best of luck in the future with this

by mwilli5783 Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:44 am

just found out that singer nancy wilson has died...she was 81

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:47 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Hey, how is everyone?

Horrendous and pissed off. Two full weeks of temps in the 30s and zero precip. Now it’s gonna rain for a few days.

How are you buddy

I am doing pretty well. I think you need to move north to let's say NH....no income tax and plenty of snow and good fishing.

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:48 am

frank 638 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Hey, how is everyone?
excellent I am new uncle my sister had her first new baby boy his name is Anthony Michael he is 6 pounds 6 ounces

Congrats!

by mwilli5783 Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:50 am

congrats

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:23 pm

Belated congrats to Alex , Uncle frank638 and Hi to Ryan!

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:52 pm

Quietace wrote:Hey, how is everyone?

Good here, except for all the friggin' rain we're going to get this weekend. Are you home for break?

by **HectorO** Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:55 pm

Why does the cold weather seem to suppress moisture? As soon as temps warm up, moisture comes rushing almost every single time. And it seems to happen in this area a lot since there are other parts of the country that are very cold but always seem to get hit with snow.

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:19 pm

HectorO wrote:Why does the cold weather seem to suppress moisture? As soon as temps warm up, moisture comes rushing almost every single time. And it seems to happen in this area a lot since there are other parts of the country that are very cold but always seem to get hit with snow.

Great question and I have seen that scenario many times watching the tri state weather since the age of the dinosaurs.Funny thing, tho, this rainstorm seems to be suppressed, Frank has the totals much lower.

by **frank 638** Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:29 pm

docstox12 wrote:Belated congrats to Alex , Uncle frank638 and Hi to Ryan!

thank you and have a great weekend

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:45 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
Quietace wrote:Hey, how is everyone?

Good here, except for all the friggin' rain we're going to get this weekend. Are you home for break?

I totally understand, Tallahassee has now had its 3rd wettest December on record, and we are only halfway through the month. The southeast has been extremely active. I am headed back Sunday (TPA to PHL). Only have 2 weeks or so home before I have to go back. I was hoping for some frozen precip however, that does not look to be the case...

by **billg315** Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:15 pm

HectorO wrote:Why does the cold weather seem to suppress moisture? As soon as temps warm up, moisture comes rushing almost every single time. And it seems to happen in this area a lot since there are other parts of the country that are very cold but always seem to get hit with snow.

There is actually a very logical answer to this and it is not just coincidence. Here is a very barebones simple answer:
First, cold air is much drier than warm air. So when it's bitterly cold the air is very dry and doesn't have as much moisture to give. But second, and just as importantly, it usually gets "below normal cold" around this region (mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast) when a nice Canadian High Pressure settles over the area. The problem is that High Pressure = nice, dry weather. So usually when it is very cold here, its because we're under the influence of a High Pressure area. This High will keep storms to our south or east. Often times what next happens is that the High slides off to our east, and the return flow on the backside (air flows clockwise around a High) comes up from the south bringing warmer air -- and often rain, or snow turning to rain.

If the High is positioned just right, say to our north, we can get the cold air from it, and it can still allow a storm to our south to track north and bring us snow. But the position of the High (and the timing of any storm to our south) has to be just right. This is less of an issue in other parts of the country (i.e. the northern plains) where it is naturally colder than here to begin with. Our temperatures here, even in the dead of winter, are usually borderline for snow. Average high in January is about 38* so we really need a cold air source for snow here. But unfortunately, that cold air source sometimes is too close and too strong and it keeps everything suppressed south until it moves out and the warm air returns. Hence why we always walk the tightrope between wanting cold air, but not wanting too much cold air.

by **HectorO** Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:15 pm

billg315 wrote:
HectorO wrote:Why does the cold weather seem to suppress moisture? As soon as temps warm up, moisture comes rushing almost every single time. And it seems to happen in this area a lot since there are other parts of the country that are very cold but always seem to get hit with snow.

There is actually a very logical answer to this and it is not just coincidence. Here is a very barebones simple answer:
First, cold air is much drier than warm air. So when it's bitterly cold the air is very dry and doesn't have as much moisture to give. But second, and just as importantly, it usually gets "below normal cold" around this region (mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast) when a nice Canadian High Pressure settles over the area. The problem is that High Pressure = nice, dry weather. So usually when it is very cold here, its because we're under the influence of a High Pressure area. This High will keep storms to our south or east. Often times what next happens is that the High slides off to our east, and the return flow on the backside (air flows clockwise around a High) comes up from the south bringing warmer air -- and often rain, or snow turning to rain.

If the High is positioned just right, say to our north, we can get the cold air from it, and it can still allow a storm to our south to track north and bring us snow. But the position of the High (and the timing of any storm to our south) has to be just right. This is less of an issue in other parts of the country (i.e. the northern plains) where it is naturally colder than here to begin with. Our temperatures here, even in the dead of winter, are usually borderline for snow. Average high in January is about 38* so we really need a cold air source for snow here. But unfortunately, that cold air source sometimes is too close and too strong and it keeps everything suppressed south until it moves out and the warm air returns. Hence why we always walk the tightrope between wanting cold air, but not wanting too much cold air.

Thanks! I'm in a weird zone, further west and definitely anywhere between 5-10 degrees colder than the city at times. Last year the 7 inch storm we got late in the season was 24 inches here, so I guess it also depends where the storm is coming from. Thanks for the info!

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:37 am

From one year ago today:

SENJsnowman wrote:Looks like I'm getting bigger flakes now and that the banding is expanding over the shore

The Shore and LI scored a quick 3-5" on a sneaky little Hanukkah storm that only the mets on this board called right. All the 'pros' had the storm south and offshore I believe.

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:06 am

HectorO wrote:
billg315 wrote:
HectorO wrote:Why does the cold weather seem to suppress moisture? As soon as temps warm up, moisture comes rushing almost every single time. And it seems to happen in this area a lot since there are other parts of the country that are very cold but always seem to get hit with snow.

There is actually a very logical answer to this and it is not just coincidence. Here is a very barebones simple answer:
First, cold air is much drier than warm air. So when it's bitterly cold the air is very dry and doesn't have as much moisture to give. But second, and just as importantly, it usually gets "below normal cold" around this region (mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast) when a nice Canadian High Pressure settles over the area. The problem is that High Pressure = nice, dry weather. So usually when it is very cold here, its because we're under the influence of a High Pressure area. This High will keep storms to our south or east. Often times what next happens is that the High slides off to our east, and the return flow on the backside (air flows clockwise around a High) comes up from the south bringing warmer air -- and often rain, or snow turning to rain.

If the High is positioned just right, say to our north, we can get the cold air from it, and it can still allow a storm to our south to track north and bring us snow. But the position of the High (and the timing of any storm to our south) has to be just right. This is less of an issue in other parts of the country (i.e. the northern plains) where it is naturally colder than here to begin with. Our temperatures here, even in the dead of winter, are usually borderline for snow. Average high in January is about 38* so we really need a cold air source for snow here. But unfortunately, that cold air source sometimes is too close and too strong and it keeps everything suppressed south until it moves out and the warm air returns. Hence why we always walk the tightrope between wanting cold air, but not wanting too much cold air.

Thanks! I'm in a weird zone, further west and definitely anywhere between 5-10 degrees colder than the city at times. Last year the 7 inch storm we got late in the season was 24 inches here, so I guess it also depends where the storm is coming from. Thanks for the info!

Thanks so much for the discussion. Between the general tightrope that BillG laid out so clearly and the various micro climates and the individual features of any given storm that Hector mentioned, it seems that SO MANY things have to happen right to get decent snowfalls around here. But luckily they sometimes do...

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