Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Frank_Wx wrote:If we're paying attention to trends (on all models not just NAM) I would argue the PNA ridge has strengthened, NAO block has weakened, northern short wave has slowed down, but the upper low associated with the confluence has remained the same. 3/4 is not bad. Especially in baseball. Still have some time to make this 4/4. 

Trend continued on today's 12z runs. We can overcome this confluence as long as these trends keep happening.

Long Range RGEM shows a Roidzilla!!!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If we're paying attention to trends (on all models not just NAM) I would argue the PNA ridge has strengthened, NAO block has weakened, northern short wave has slowed down, but the upper low associated with the confluence has remained the same. 3/4 is not bad. Especially in baseball. Still have some time to make this 4/4. 

Trend continued on today's 12z runs. We can overcome this confluence as long as these trends keep happening.

Trend is our friend Frank. I'm feeling much more confident after looking at the 12z suite. I believe the EURO is still correcting. Ultimately I would like to see at least a partial phase with the northern short wave. If not, even if the low makes it up here, I fear the coast could be in trouble with temps.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If we're paying attention to trends (on all models not just NAM) I would argue the PNA ridge has strengthened, NAO block has weakened, northern short wave has slowed down, but the upper low associated with the confluence has remained the same. 3/4 is not bad. Especially in baseball. Still have some time to make this 4/4. 

Trend continued on today's 12z runs. We can overcome this confluence as long as these trends keep happening.

Trend is our friend Frank. I'm feeling much more confident after looking at the 12z suite. I believe the EURO is still correcting. Ultimately I would like to see at least a partial phase with the northern short wave. If not, even if the low makes it up here, I fear the coast could be in trouble with temps.

To avoid mixing we either need a graze - which would be a light to moderate event at best - or a full phased storm to draw in all the cold air. We can't have anything in between like we saw Wednesday (unless you live N&W obviously).

Frank is the RGEM a triple phase?

nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank is the RGEM a triple phase?

Not sure need to see H5

One thing I would like to point out. Stress actually.

The GEFS show a very good looking +PNA. This allows the phase to occur between the Pacific and Sub-Tropical jet upper vorts. Notice how on Sunday morning H5 is actually closed off. It opens back up which speeds the progression of the trough up. In my experience I always felt models were too quick to open H5 when they are dealing with an anomalous +PNA and strong northern vort. If they are misreading this, as I feel they might be, then H5 should stay closed off longer and allow the 3rd piece to phase in. And also allow the confluence to move itself north. The -NAO is another factor in this. No doubt.

Are we looking at another very wet snowfall with this potential threat? Or could we see better ratios that would allow for easier accumulation?

Frank_Wx wrote:

(unless you live N&W obviously).

Keep it S&E please...

EPS west of OP

I'm guessing there's no real chance I'll see anything of significance. Correct?

Great point Frank

EPS 00z vs 12z

Damn Frank...beat me to it

Deleted mine. Yours is nicer.

Here are the snowfall maps for EPS: 12z yesterday vs 12z today: (pay no attention to actual totals in your back yard, but rather how many members have shifted from showing nothing to Godzilla +

If the storm potential materializes, am I correct that the timing for arrival would be during the day Monday?

I'm trying to advise my co-workers on age-old question - Do I take the laptop home or not? My advice currently is TAKE IT WITH YOU!

crippo84 wrote:Are we looking at another very wet snowfall with this potential threat? Or could we see better ratios that would allow for easier accumulation?

It would be 8:1 for the coast IMO. Gotta pay attention to the timing (night vs day)

TheAresian wrote:I'm guessing there's no real chance I'll see anything of significance. Correct?

Not this time my friend

essexcountypete wrote:If the storm potential materializes, am I correct that the timing for arrival would be during the day Monday?

I'm trying to advise my co-workers on age-old question - Do I take the laptop home or not? My advice currently is TAKE IT WITH YOU!

Take it with you.

It would be Mon afternoon or night

Frank I’m always lurking had a question. What amount is roidzilla?

WOLVES1 wrote:Frank I’m always lurking had a question. What amount is roidzilla?

Click the classifications link in my signature

WOLVES1 wrote:Frank I’m always lurking had a question. What amount is roidzilla?

18+

Thank you

18Z NAM is a complete miss for the northeast.

Before we get our hopes up, a solid analysis right here:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030918.htm

Roidzilla is 24 plus no? I like the trends on rgem and euro ensembles. The nsm.cant always be right. This is nowhere near dead. This to me feels like it may be a sneak attack. Got the laptop lol. Frank do u feel this is gaining credibility losing or remsind same att.

SoulSingMG wrote:Before we get our hopes up, a solid analysis right here:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030918.htm

well damn how much do we trust in this person's anslysis?

Yes Jamn and Nutley a Roidzilla is 24*