Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

jmanley32 wrote:

Radz wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Upton thinks its coming folks...

                                                                 

AS compared to 24 hours ago, there have been minor shifts in both northern and southern stream energies that will impact the track of the surface low. The southern stream shortwave has trended slower/farther south before emerging off the southeast U.S. coast. This would give the northern stream energy more time to phase and cause the surface low to rapidly deepen as it passes in the vicinity of 40N/70W. Given this trend along with the tendency for models to bring storms in setups like this closer to th coast within a couple of days of the storm (where the sharper sea surface temp gradient also is), thinking is that the storm center will end up closer to the benchmark than what the average 00z track shows.

So close to a major event for at least some of the forum, definitely favors the coastal areas this time around. Would love to see a 75 mile jump WEST with the 12z suite - eastern NE is going to get blitzed!!!

east?! I hope u mean west.

Yes Edited lol

I should probably throw out a word of caution for people reading my posts in regard to this storm: I operate in a slightly different plane than some in regard to this particular event (if not most snow events) in that I consider it a win if I get a 2-4” or 3-5” snow out of a system that 3 days ago was out to sea well south of us without a flake. So last night when I was optimistic about even the less than “perfect” model runs, it was because even the supposedly OTS NAM (it wasn’t what I’d call truly OTS) was giving us an advisory snowfall. That said, I think it’s clear from the models and the wording of the Mt Holly and Upton forecast discussions that we are VERY close to a more significant event and anyone who tells you it definitely isn’t happening should be viewed skeptically. Real meteorologists would never look at this setup and these models and definitively write it off - hence the wording the last two days of the NWS updates. The fact is nobody knows for sure how close this will come to the coast at this moment.

Sroc - you locked the topic on your recent post. We can,t respond

billg315 wrote:I should probably throw out a word of caution for people reading my posts in regard to this storm: I operate in a slightly different plane than some in regard to this particular event (if not most snow events) in that I consider it a win if I get a 2-4” or 3-5” snow out of a system that 3 days ago was out to sea well south of us without a flake. So last night when I was optimistic about even the less than “perfect” model runs, it was because even the supposedly OTS NAM (it wasn’t what I’d call truly OTS) was giving us an advisory snowfall. That said, I think it’s clear from the models and the wording of the Mt Holly and Upton forecast discussions that we are VERY close to a more significant event and anyone who tells you it definitely isn’t happening should be viewed skeptically. Real meteorologists would never look at this setup and these models and definitively write it off - hence the wording the last two days of the NWS updates. The fact is nobody knows for sure how close this will come to the coast at this moment.

Agree with

Right now I feel very confident I will get accumulating snow Monday night, if even only a couple inches. And I’m further west than some people on here.

Sroc I have a question. If this potential storm hits the bench mark how will that effect the members in EPA ? I know if it goes S&E of the bench mark my area will receive little to no snow.

My guess is for E.PA to get big snows from this it would have to track inside the BM at which time mixing issues would again pop up for coastal areas. If it goes to the BM I think heaviest snow is I-95 corridor and east, with more advisory level snows in PA except maybe extreme SE PA near Philly. Problem with most of these coastal storms is if the storm wraps up tight enough to bring heavy snow, that tends to shrink the precip field a bit making it tougher to get big snows far west of its center.

That being said, I just looked up your location and you’re right on the NJ border so you’d stand a better chance than people further into PA of getting a good hit.

unlocked the other thread.. move on up folks!