Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
is the GEPS worth anything?
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
RJB8525 wrote:is the GEPS worth anything?
About as much as your opinion Richard...
Just kidding, I know nothing about it.
I wanted to ask when will this system be properly sampled?
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
EPS frank? Isn't it out? Or is it just bad?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into Central/South Jersey with lighter snow for the rest of us. It then crushes New England.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.
ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOOKS GOOD

FROM EARTHLIGHT
Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.
_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
amugs wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.
ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT
Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.

adamfitz1969- Posts : 121
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
lol ur signature gif. Who is that? Like to hear positives on gfs already need euro though. No reports on it yet I'll look when home.adamfitz1969 wrote:amugs wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.
ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT
Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Rb where are ya taking a days break? Hopefully ur back with a vengence tomorrow as u said ur hyped for this.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Ouch euro was terrible did not even really develop and just came off Carolina coast and ots. I'll look eps when I'm.at laptop. Let me clarify I'm just going verbatim there may have been good upper level things I'll let the other guys analyze that.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
jmanley32 wrote:lol ur signature gif. Who is that? Like to hear positives on gfs already need euro though. No reports on it yet I'll look when home.adamfitz1969 wrote:amugs wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.
ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT
Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.
Its from Tim & Eric's Awesome Show which was on adult swim.
adamfitz1969- Posts : 121
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
amugs wrote:Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.
In other words, don't hug the models??!!!
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
how would u even hug a model do they even give tours of the model facilities in order to get a chance to hug them lolGrselig wrote:amugs wrote:Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.
In other words, don't hug the models??!!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
lmao that is hilarious and dirty in a indirect way.adamfitz1969 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:lol ur signature gif. Who is that? Like to hear positives on gfs already need euro though. No reports on it yet I'll look when home.adamfitz1969 wrote:amugs wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.
ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT
Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.
Its from Tim & Eric's Awesome Show which was on adult swim.
I
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
I am sorry for posting here but has anyone else been having trouble with the NCEP model page? It seems new but all the forecast time maps seem to be messed up. Looks like a new formatted page also.
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Well just checked the GFS 18z run and lo and behold it's on board. Northern energy phases in and low develops off the coast and moves northeast spreading snow into NJ. Still favors South Jersey over northern areas, but way to far out to worry about those details. H5 low is right off NJ coast.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
jmanley32 wrote:how would u even hug a model do they even give tours of the model facilities in order to get a chance to hug them lolGrselig wrote:amugs wrote:Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.
In other words, don't hug the models??!!!
I'm married with kids. I can't hug no more models (except my beautiful wife)!!! According to rumor, the GFS has better attributes than the Euro, but the Ukie is well put together.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
jmanley32 wrote:Rb where are ya taking a days break? Hopefully ur back with a vengence tomorrow as u said ur hyped for this.
I have actually been outside all day shoveling and plowing my parents out, since my dad is laid up and mom can't really do the shoveling, and is much too timid/inexperienced (lol love ya ma) to plow. We have a big dooryard, and doing it alone is a lot of work lol. 7.5 hours I was outside today haha though I loved every single minute of it hahahaha btw, also picked up another inch of snow here today and it's still snowing lmao I LOVE BEING HOME!!! Unfortunately, my analyses will be limited now because I have to work the next three nights, so I'll be heading back to Fishkill tomorrow and then going right to work. I'll try to post as much as I can, though!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
All of that said, I did take some time to do some analysis last night when I was speaking to you, and based on it I believe we will end up seeing our western (PNA) continue to amplify further in future runs, as well as our lead piece of energy of interest dig harder and further west. This will help the heights rise more along the East Coast. What it might also do is change the trajectory of the northern branch so it's much more meridional (north to south) rather than northwest to southeast, which help it to either phase in or not act so much as a kicker. This is all preliminary research, though, and conjecture at this point. However, based on my research and opinion, those are signs that we should start seeing in coming runs. Gotta see if they start occurring, though.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
As a follow-up, it seems we have already starting seeing these trends in the modeling. Let's see if they *continue* lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Yes they have. The 18z GEFS has trended toward a coastal compared to the 12z GEFS run. Stronger southern shortwave along with less confluence and the northern energy digs more. The EURO has been struggling mightily this winter with a progressive bias. With better sampling tonight I expect it to start correcting west.rb924119 wrote:As a follow-up, it seems we have already starting seeing these trends in the modeling. Let's see if they *continue* lol
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Rb thanks kid for your expert input.
It's coming!!
GEFS BABY

It's coming!!
GEFS BABY

_________________
Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
amugs wrote:Rb thanks kid for your expert input.
It's coming!!
GEFS BABY
Bring that baby home Mugsy!!!! Let's go out of this winter with a big blast!!!! Let's get the shore, Island, and Al and J man 20 inches plus too!!!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Here we go DOC!!
SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
amugs wrote:Here we go DOC!!
SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The vast area of precipitation on that seems unfathomable.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Oh is the 32 line the cut off? I know sometimes its the 0 line. Doc would yet again benefit verbatim here and coast gets shafter, or am I wrong? Not hugging the model just trying to read it.amugs wrote:Here we go DOC!!
SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
docstox12 wrote:amugs wrote:Rb thanks kid for your expert input.
It's coming!!
GEFS BABY
Bring that baby home Mugsy!!!! Let's go out of this winter with a big blast!!!! Let's get the shore, Island, and Al and J man 20 inches plus too!!!
"Let's go out of this winter a big blast!!!!" he says......little does he know the Euro Weeklies rock us through into April!!!!! This pattern flip of 4-6 weeks of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures was delayed by two weeks over most forecasts. Had the pattern change occurred on time, we would have been coming out of this regime toward the end of March. Since it was displaced two weeks, the pronostication of the Weeklies makes sense against the long-standing forecasts from back in JANUARY for this period of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures in the East. I think this is why recently we have seen the modeling begin reloading our blocking pattern also. I think this could turn out to be a true and classic case of "delayed, not denied" for those of us who issued those long-range outlooks

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