Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

by **jmanley32** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:36 pm

EPS frank? Isn't it out? Or is it just bad?

by **nutleyblizzard** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:09 pm

Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into Central/South Jersey with lighter snow for the rest of us. It then crushes New England.

by **amugs** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:13 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.

ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOOKS GOOD

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FROM EARTHLIGHT

Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.

by adamfitz1969 on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:17 pm

@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.

ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT

Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 2 Tim-and-eric-mind-blown

by **jmanley32** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:21 pm

@adamfitz1969 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.

ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT

Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.

lol ur signature gif. Who is that? Like to hear positives on gfs already need euro though. No reports on it yet I'll look when home.

by **jmanley32** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:23 pm

Rb where are ya taking a days break? Hopefully ur back with a vengence tomorrow as u said ur hyped for this.

by **amugs** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:25 pm

Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.

by **jmanley32** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:26 pm

Ouch euro was terrible did not even really develop and just came off Carolina coast and ots. I'll look eps when I'm.at laptop. Let me clarify I'm just going verbatim there may have been good upper level things I'll let the other guys analyze that.

by adamfitz1969 on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@adamfitz1969 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.

ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT

Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.

lol ur signature gif. Who is that? Like to hear positives on gfs already need euro though. No reports on it yet I'll look when home.

Its from Tim & Eric's Awesome Show which was on adult swim.

by **Grselig** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:39 pm

@amugs wrote:Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.

In other words, don't hug the models??!!!

by **jmanley32** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:41 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@amugs wrote:Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.

In other words, don't hug the models??!!!

how would u even hug a model do they even give tours of the model facilities in order to get a chance to hug them lol

by **jmanley32** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:43 pm

@adamfitz1969 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@adamfitz1969 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow. 18z GFS was real close to a big event. Good snows get into South Jersey then crushes New England.

ITS COMING!!!!!!!
H5 ON GFS LOKS GOOD
FROM EARTHLIGHT

Happy hour GFS is much further north with potentially phasing polar shortwave, and more organized with incoming shortwave energy that drops into USA. This allows height rises to occur on East Coast and storm system amplifies northward. Would result in a major winter storm.

lol ur signature gif. Who is that? Like to hear positives on gfs already need euro though. No reports on it yet I'll look when home.

Its from Tim & Eric's Awesome Show which was on adult swim.
I

lmao that is hilarious and dirty in a indirect way.

by **WeatherBob** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:52 pm

I am sorry for posting here but has anyone else been having trouble with the NCEP model page? It seems new but all the forecast time maps seem to be messed up. Looks like a new formatted page also.

by **billg315** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:59 pm

Well just checked the GFS 18z run and lo and behold it's on board. Northern energy phases in and low develops off the coast and moves northeast spreading snow into NJ. Still favors South Jersey over northern areas, but way to far out to worry about those details. H5 low is right off NJ coast.

by **Grselig** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:06 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Grselig wrote:
@amugs wrote:Miller A type storms which this is and it originates from the STJ in the Gulf of Mexico love to take a N trajectory from what I have read and learned over the years.
The Northern Energy has been so poorly sampled this winter it is usually within 36 hours that we see models trend and lastly remember the trends all winter have been a NW lean.
CMC can hit such at longer lead times Jan 4 Blizzard at 120 hrs it hit it and Dec 9th storm as well than the EURO and GFS. NAM look good at hr 84 as well again at H5.

In other words, don't hug the models??!!!
how would u even hug a model do they even give tours of the model facilities in order to get a chance to hug them lol

I'm married with kids. I can't hug no more models (except my beautiful wife)!!! According to rumor, the GFS has better attributes than the Euro, but the Ukie is well put together.

by **rb924119** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Rb where are ya taking a days break? Hopefully ur back with a vengence tomorrow as u said ur hyped for this.

I have actually been outside all day shoveling and plowing my parents out, since my dad is laid up and mom can't really do the shoveling, and is much too timid/inexperienced (lol love ya ma) to plow. We have a big dooryard, and doing it alone is a lot of work lol. 7.5 hours I was outside today haha though I loved every single minute of it hahahaha btw, also picked up another inch of snow here today and it's still snowing lmao I LOVE BEING HOME!!! Unfortunately, my analyses will be limited now because I have to work the next three nights, so I'll be heading back to Fishkill tomorrow and then going right to work. I'll try to post as much as I can, though!!

by **rb924119** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:59 pm

All of that said, I did take some time to do some analysis last night when I was speaking to you, and based on it I believe we will end up seeing our western (PNA) continue to amplify further in future runs, as well as our lead piece of energy of interest dig harder and further west. This will help the heights rise more along the East Coast. What it might also do is change the trajectory of the northern branch so it's much more meridional (north to south) rather than northwest to southeast, which help it to either phase in or not act so much as a kicker. This is all preliminary research, though, and conjecture at this point. However, based on my research and opinion, those are signs that we should start seeing in coming runs. Gotta see if they start occurring, though.

by **rb924119** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:07 pm

As a follow-up, it seems we have already starting seeing these trends in the modeling. Let's see if they *continue* lol

by **nutleyblizzard** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:28 pm

@rb924119 wrote:As a follow-up, it seems we have already starting seeing these trends in the modeling. Let's see if they *continue* lol

Yes they have. The 18z GEFS has trended toward a coastal compared to the 12z GEFS run. Stronger southern shortwave along with less confluence and the northern energy digs more. The EURO has been struggling mightily this winter with a progressive bias. With better sampling tonight I expect it to start correcting west.

by **amugs** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:59 pm

Rb thanks kid for your expert input.
It's coming!!
GEFS BABY
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Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 2 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

by **docstox12** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:04 pm

@amugs wrote:Rb thanks kid for your expert input.
It's coming!!
GEFS BABY

Bring that baby home Mugsy!!!! Let's go out of this winter with a big blast!!!! Let's get the shore, Island, and Al and J man 20 inches plus too!!!

by **amugs** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:35 pm

Here we go DOC!!

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:38 pm

@amugs wrote:Here we go DOC!!

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The vast area of precipitation on that seems unfathomable.

by **jmanley32** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:38 pm

@amugs wrote:Here we go DOC!!

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh is the 32 line the cut off? I know sometimes its the 0 line. Doc would yet again benefit verbatim here and coast gets shafter, or am I wrong? Not hugging the model just trying to read it.

by **rb924119** on Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:39 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Rb thanks kid for your expert input.
It's coming!!
GEFS BABY

Bring that baby home Mugsy!!!! Let's go out of this winter with a big blast!!!! Let's get the shore, Island, and Al and J man 20 inches plus too!!!

"Let's go out of this winter a big blast!!!!" he says......little does he know the Euro Weeklies rock us through into April!!!!! This pattern flip of 4-6 weeks of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures was delayed by two weeks over most forecasts. Had the pattern change occurred on time, we would have been coming out of this regime toward the end of March. Since it was displaced two weeks, the pronostication of the Weeklies makes sense against the long-standing forecasts from back in JANUARY for this period of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures in the East. I think this is why recently we have seen the modeling begin reloading our blocking pattern also. I think this could turn out to be a true and classic case of "delayed, not denied" for those of us who issued those long-range outlooks Smile

buckle up, because we will very likely continue to have chances at these types of systems and this type of pattern, folks!!!