Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:25 pm

Wish one of our real experts was here right now. lol It looks like the upper level energy is over GA and the trough is digging in and going a little more neutral from positive as heights are rising along the coast. But I don't know what the hell I'm doing so I could be wrong.

by **Vinnydula** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:26 pm

Looks east and weaker

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:27 pm

Oy soul looks like it's going ots ur in trouble!!

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:32 pm

At the surface at Hour 48 snow has moved into Eastern PA/NJ on the backside of the low.

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:33 pm

NAM is ots

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:37 pm

Hour 54 surface low is well of the coast. Although still showing snow over NJ back into eastern PA.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:38 pm

NAM is still throwing good snows into the area thanks to an expansive precip shield.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:38 pm

Much weaker and se darn. Well hopefully 3 km isn't same.

by **Radz** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:41 pm

well, it may not be that far off from the 18z location wise, and it is much weaker, but i was hoping for a more western jog, which did not happen...

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:43 pm

Not a great run. But not an "ok we can write this off" run either. The low doesn't go completely out to sea. It moves northeast and does bring snow into the area. It's just too far off the coast to get the heaviest snow here. Seems to just miss the northern energy. I'll be interested to hear what some of our experts have to say as they've been preaching not to focus only on the surface output. The energy at the upper levels does appear at least to the untrained eye to be west of where the surface energy is going.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:44 pm

Dear lord 3km stalls by carolinas and intensifies it may be good run. It appears to be closer than 12km.

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:49 pm

Hi res huge hit. East of NYC crushed

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:49 pm

3 km looks like it may be go for dimilar crush run. Which is encouraging.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:50 pm

Hi-res NAM is much more west than the 12k run thus far.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:51 pm

aiannone wrote:Hi res huge hit. East of NYC crushed

so it went east not a good start but not the end all by any means.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:55 pm

aiannone wrote:Hi res huge hit. East of NYC crushed

Hearing lots of convective feedback though/ over-amped. All in all, NAM suite not a positive step for the 00z's

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:57 pm

3k NAM a Long Island on east special and still snowing
Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 15 Ac31f210

by **billg315** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:00 pm

If I were a betting man I'd say the NAM comes a bit N&W tomorrow. But, I've been wrong before. Wink

Alright, I'll check in tomorrow and see where we are.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:03 pm

So 00z 3km just seems have less expsndive precip to west or would been same. No reason give up we said there b wild runs.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:06 pm

3km has me 6 to 10 in good with that. Plenty room to shift to bigger things imo.

by **Vinnydula** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:11 pm

Has the 3k ever been right

by Guest Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:24 pm

3k NAM will be right this time and I get a foot!!

by **Vinnydula** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:26 pm

Not likely

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:38 pm

3K NAM was further east and weaker than in her last run, as well. Take it for what it’s worth.

Next up: G(oo)F(u)S!!! :-)

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:42 pm

gfs is looking decent at surface at hr 36, also note frank changed the SCI date to the 13th, but this thread is 12th so im a bit confused which day is it?

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:44 pm

gfs further west if i see correctly. or precip is anyways.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:44 pm

00z GFS...so close yet so far. Big day of model runs tomorrow. We can still do this.

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