March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

aiannone wrote:13z HRRR snow total. (Run Steve D was referring too)

I think I recognize that bright pink spot of 18”+ CP

Moderate snow here, everything including roads are covered. Intensity slow and steadily picking up.

2.5" of snow now

syosnow94 wrote:

aiannone wrote:13z HRRR snow total. (Run Steve D was referring too)

I think I recognize that bright pink spot of 18”+ CP

Like I always say it's just a map it means nothing until it verifies.

Self directed move to banter where it belongs

What I would do now is basically just watch the 700 mb map from the SPC meso analysis and radar. Do your short term forecasting from that. Even though the total precip forecast has come down a bit, doesn’t matter, watch the banding!

Does anyone know if the Euro model includes recon data?

Down to 31.9 here

Snowing moderately here at extreme northwestern corner of Ocean county. All surfaces are covered. Come on waiting for the white gold.

2.5'' measured on my back deck.

Friend in MD says don't get discouraged they getting blasted with snow now and sticking. Even sticking in DC itself.

Lnda23 wrote:Does anyone know if the Euro model includes recon data?

This model became so bad I actually feel sorry for it. Maybe we should have a ceremony. CP, or Syo can you prepare the eulogy?

nutleyblizzard wrote:2.5'' measured on my back deck.

Congrats, this is your storm.

aiannone wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

aiannone wrote:

I do not fully understand that post..sorry can you explain

He is saying the HRRR was showing the heaviest bands staying just off the coast. Immediately surrounding heavier bands is usually an area of subsidence (sinking air as a result of intense rising air in the location of the heavy band). Where there is sinking air, there will either be a dry slot or very light precip. So he is saying if the heavy band is just offshore, then surround it (the coast) will be dominated by subsidence.

thank you...I got your version!!

Back to snow/sleet mix now that precip has lightened up

Ripping here on the NS of LI...adding up fast.  Loving my hors d'oeuvre!!

latest Mt Holly briefing, keeps me encouraged

Sussex-Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, and Morristown
1043 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 9
to 12 inches, with localized amounts up to 14 inches, are
expected.

* WHERE...Sussex, Warren and Morris Counties.

* WHEN...Snow will increase late this morning and become heavy at
times this afternoon and evening. Snow rates of one to two
inches per hour are possible. Snow will begin to taper off
overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
impossible, including during the evening commute. Be prepared
for significant reductions in visibility at times. In addition,
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will produce blowing snow and may
contribute to scattered power outages, especially when combined
with the weight of the snow.

I have concluded after much deep thought (which is about one minutes worth for me) that late morning through evening storms are the WORST. Not because of sun angle, warmer temps, stickage issues. But because everyone (even myself at times) is so impatient for it to get going that they can’t get through the first few hours of build-up/set-up (before the heavy stuff rolls in), without panicking that it’s not snowing yet. If we had this light snow from midnight to 5 am and it got heavy at 6 am, nobody would even notice or care. We’d all wake up to heavy snow and be thrilled (even though the last five hours while we slept were “wasted.”) This storm is still on track at the upper levels, there is much heavy stuff to the south and west on radar at the surface. Remember two weeks ago - nothing all morning then a dumping all at once after noon. Many areas will see a repeat of that today.

Lnda23 wrote:Does anyone know if the Euro model includes recon data?

Not too long ago if the EURO showed an outcome 5 days out it was highly accurate. 3 days out you can lock it up. What the hell happened???

29 degrees with moderate snow. about 5.5" so far.

billg315 wrote:

brownie wrote:1 inch here.

Still not sticking to the street.  Not happy that I lost a second day of my spring break for this.

The reason you’re not getting anything sticking to the street is it’s not heavy enough there yet. You’re in a dry spot or on the edge of one. That should change by midday/afternoon when all the heavy stuff you see to the south and west gets here.

Just spoke to my friend in Bridgewater who reports the same thing - not sticking to the street.  That’s near you, and also under that dark blue band in that map.  ????

North shore of Suffolk. Sticking to all surfaces because of the earlier sleet

radar showing snow lightening up for Long Island to our south

Frank, we are about to get into that nice little band!

brownie wrote:

billg315 wrote:

brownie wrote:1 inch here.

Still not sticking to the street.  Not happy that I lost a second day of my spring break for this.

The reason you’re not getting anything sticking to the street is it’s not heavy enough there yet. You’re in a dry spot or on the edge of one. That should change by midday/afternoon when all the heavy stuff you see to the south and west gets here.

Just spoke to my friend in Bridgewater who reports the same thing - not sticking to the street.  That’s near you, and also under that dark blue band in that map.  ????

Or is the dark blue a dry area?  I apologize if I’m an idiot who can’t read radar maps.

brownie wrote:

billg315 wrote:

brownie wrote:1 inch here.

Still not sticking to the street.  Not happy that I lost a second day of my spring break for this.

The reason you’re not getting anything sticking to the street is it’s not heavy enough there yet. You’re in a dry spot or on the edge of one. That should change by midday/afternoon when all the heavy stuff you see to the south and west gets here.

Just spoke to my friend in Bridgewater who reports the same thing - not sticking to the street.  That’s near you, and also under that dark blue band in that map.  ????

Bridgewater is actually in the same dry spot. I’ve been getting light snow with no stickage on the road most of the morning as well. The area circled is the dry area where it’s not doing much. It’s the area south and west (near Trenton-Princeton) under the greens and yellows where the heaviest bands are currently.

Just woke up and scrolled Twatter. Why is Steve D cancelling the storm?

OK FINALLY, somebody flipped a switch. Starting to snow again,lol.