NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

+31
oldtimer
SENJsnowman
brownie
dkodgis
2004blackwrx
Smittyaj623
Grselig
Radz
SoulSingMG
aiannone
SNOW MAN
heehaw453
MattyICE
skinsfan1177
Sanchize06
Dtone
Scullybutcher
rb924119
amugs
Math23x7
WeatherBob
Frank_Wx
jmanley32
weatherwatchermom
frank 638
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
nutleyblizzard
docstox12
billg315
sroc4
35 posters

Page 2 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:39 pm

Sorry for my post earlier, was joking around and had a bit of the drink started my holiday week off early.  I am glad most will be seeing snow, I am just going to see what happens but assumingly there will be no accumulation here.  Thats okay, and yeah I guess in terms of uncommon April snow goes it is pretty cool frank. Wish I was NW of NYC then I would be excited but just to late in season. 45 inches for the season is not too bad here, it tops last year. Wish it had come in more lump big storms but at least I can say we were well above normal.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:32 pm

[quote="Dunnzoo"]
weatherwatchermom wrote:Hmm..last night my mother hung up on me and now my husband gave me a dirty look and told me to keep my snow news to myself.. Smile ..do we really have a chance of snow??[/quote

We really do! cheers   Just a matter of how much stickage we get...[/quote
I
happy easter!! Tx

weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3716
Join date : 2014-11-25

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by WeatherBob Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:48 pm

I only look at the 700 mb for frontogenesis and forcing. That is where all the action is for precipitation development and intensity.
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 683
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 500 FT

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by Math23x7 Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:42 pm

The 0Z ECMWF is not only steadfast with the snowy solution for the region, it now has it going below freezing in NYC. Not only that, it comes in before daybreak so that would allow for snow to accumulate.

The last measurable snowfall at CPK in NYC was April 5th, 2006. I remember it wasn't freezing and during the day, but it was coming down at a high rate when it did. I was a sophomore in high school just finishing up lunch when I looked out the window and was amazed at the snow intensity. It was brief, but it gave CPK 0.1", which doesn't seem like much, but it put CPK's 2005-06 seasonal snow total from 39.9" to 40", making the fourth straight snow season to reach that level.

Three years prior, April 7th, 2003, I was in school at the time and around 11 or so it started to come down at an intense rate, so it didnt take long to accumulate.

Three years prior to that, April 9th, 2000, it was a Sunday and I was up mid-morning and I look out the window at first and it's rain but not long after that, it changed over to snow and began to accumulate. I was nine then and much of the winter I hadn't had much opportunity to play in the snow (I was sick on January 25th, 2000). Since I was not sick, I took full advantage and played in the snow in the backyard. Of course, it didn't take long for it to warm up after the snow and it was gone within a day.

Speaking of which, model guidance has the sun coming out after the snow on Monday morning with temperatures in the 40s so it will not take long for the snow to melt. But as Scott mentioned, any snow in April is a bonus so I'll take it. I would probably head over to either Central Park or Bryant Park to record the footage. I don't know why but I'm feeling a little giddy about this, even if it's not a 6" snowstorm.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:36 am

WWA From NWS Mt Holly:
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO1 PM EDT MONDAY

* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

* WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

* WHEN...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT MONDAY.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL LEAD TO RAPID MELT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ON GRASSY SURFACES.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:58 am

One thing I notice about the 0z and 6z GFS is it is a slightly warmer solution with the rain/snow line getting much closer to the area than yesterdays runs. The 6z NAM is still a little bit colder but actually does show some mixing in some spots of NNJ early (maybe before the heavier precip cools things). Although this is likely also why the heavier snow totals shifted north into our area as well.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:11 am

Mon 5 am NAM/GFS:
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 03d48b10
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 A3ddbd10
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:13 am

Mon 8 am GFS/NAM:
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 9e8e3e10
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 B1a77b10
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:14 am

Cold air wins out especially after it gets heavier, but close-call on mixing right at outset for some.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:21 am

6z NAM snow map 10:1:

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 B5b11110
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by amugs Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:24 am

Happy Easter!! Oh boy!!

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Stormt10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by amugs Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:27 am

Bigger picture 

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Img_2061

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:30 am

Strongest frontogenesis at 700mb level at 8am right over NNJ/NYC:
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 290fdb10
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by rb924119 Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:56 am

Already reporting wet snow here in NE PA at my parents' house!!!! I love it!!!! Happy Easter everybody!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:43 am

12z GFS and NAM seem to keep any mixing issues at the outset mostly to the south. GFS got a little "colder." Both have a start time between about 2 and 5 a.m. with heaviest snow during the morning rush hour. Snow totals are still consistent with earlier model runs in the general 4-6" range.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:52 am

HRRR not fully in range has snow mixed with rain in some spots starting around 2 a.m., going to mainly snow for most of the area by 5 a.m. with the heaviest snow just breaking out between 4 a.m. and 5 a.m. Perfect to make the morning rush hour a mess.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:17 am

Here is my snow map:
Green: Rain.
Pink: Mix of rain and snow, no accumulation.
Light Blue: 2-4” of Snow:
Dark Blue: 2-4” of Snow, but within this area localized 4-6” amounts possible.
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 F0138e10
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by amugs Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:55 am

Nice map Bill.
GEM LAM JUST GOES BONKERS HERE.
Sees the Frontgenesis maps 700mb that Bill posted? Morning rush in NNJ and LHV going to be an issue 

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 5ac10e9602bf5_hrdps_asnow_neus_48(1).png.2d0328acf79e675c886c89209b21c807

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by amugs Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:56 am

NYC stickage and surrounding UHI will have issues IMO at this time of year to pavemen surfaces.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by frank 638 Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:06 am

Great map bill when do you guys think the heaviest of the snow will start and how long will it last

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:09 am

frank 638 wrote:Great map bill when do you guys think the heaviest of the snow will start and how long will it last
Heaviest snow starts around 5 am and goes to about 9 am. I think all snow ends west to east from about 10 am to 1 pm.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by amugs Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:13 am

Euro just reinforced this storm.
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 5ac11d649ee99.png.ee02ccd108f3f79157e61d6a2b925fd8

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:13 am

amugs wrote:NYC stickage and surrounding UHI will have issues IMO at this time of year to pavemen surfaces.

Agreed. I think particularly in Manhattan and on major well-treated highways you won’t see as much accumulation on pavement, but higher elevations and side roads/less traveled streets it should stick since it’s starting a couple hours before dawn.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by frank 638 Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:17 am

Excellent thank you Bill and once again happy Easter to you and your family Bono Pasqua

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:38 am

frank 638 wrote:Excellent thank you Bill and once again happy Easter to you and your family Bono Pasqua
Happy Easter
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by Scullybutcher Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:43 am

It’s 63* out. Going to have a hard time overcoming warm ground tomorrow, for accumulations.
Scullybutcher
Scullybutcher
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 543
Reputation : 16
Join date : 2013-02-06
Location : North Smithtown, western Suffolk county, long island

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by billg315 Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:12 pm

Accumulation on pavements during nighttime with no sun angle to contend with will depend on how quickly they get to freezing, or close enough to freezing if the snow is heavy. There is some lag time for road surfaces if they’ve really been heated up. I saw one study of an October snow in Montana where temps were around 70* at 2 pm but a cold front came through. Snow started falling at midnight. Temp had dropped to 32* by 12:30 am but road surfaces didn’t freeze until about 3 am. That is when the snow started accumulating. Tonight temps may not get to freezing until dawn in some spots and may never get to freezing in other spots. So accumulation on paved surfaces will really be dependent on precipitation intensity in those spots that can’t get down to freezing.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 2 Empty Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum