APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

@jmanley32 wrote:I can't believe its 60 today and its supposed to snow in about 12 hrs....Hard believe it will stick to anything.  Am I hearing a bigger storm for Fri-Sat?! This is nuts.

The only hope is that the sun isnt shining bright. 60 with all the pavement/asphalt etc soaking up direct sunlight asorbs and stores alot of heat. The NWS discussion still had some uncertainty with UHI acclumation. Sounds like they contemplated leaving the city out of the Advisory but decided to play it safe and include everyone.

Wind has shifted to the northwest and dewpoints are 38* (forecast to be upper 20s overnight). Temps in Ohio and western PA have dropped into the upper 40s, so colder air is approaching. Right now the HRRR has most people at or below freezing by 5 or 6 am. With dewpoints in the upper 20s easy to see how quickly the temps will drop once the precip gets going, which should start by 2 or 3 am.

18z NAM, heavy snows just north of the R/S line, 6-8" in parts of CNJ. Probably a little overdone, but nice event

18z GFS

Very key factor here for roads is how heavy the snow gets before 7 am. With no sun and less traffic, areas that are in heavy snow at 5 or 6 am should see snow covered roads except maybe the major highways. If the snow is light, it will have a lot of trouble sticking on any road surface at these temps.

We are in the Poconos on a family vaca and its 61° right and beautiful

Some current temps to our west behind the cold front:
Erie PA 33*
Buffalo NY 32*
Cleveland OH 36*
Columbus OH 48*

18z RGEM. Looks like 18z runs came in a little wetter



12z

Skins sounds nice for now but if you’re still at 61 in the poconos grab your sweater because it probably will drop into the low 40s in the next couple hours.

@billg315 wrote:Skins sounds nice for now but if you’re still at 61 in the poconos grab your sweater because it probably will drop into the low 40s in the next couple hours.

I know its crazy. What's expected here in Poconos I'm hearing 6-8

@skinsfan1177 wrote:

@billg315 wrote:Skins sounds nice for now but if you’re still at 61 in the poconos grab your sweater because it probably will drop into the low 40s in the next couple hours.

I know its crazy. What's expected here in Poconos I'm hearing 6-8

I’ve been seeing 3-5” for that general area. But poconos are tricky due to varying elevations so not sure how that is playing into things. I’ll say this you should definitely wake up to accumulating snow there if you’re still there tomorrow morning. From low 60s and sun at sunset to 30 with snow at dawn. Lol

If the temp there hasn’t dropped yet it should soon. I just checked and Mt Pocono and Lake Harmony are 40 and 43. Your drop can’t be far behind.

18z NAM Snow map 10:1:

44.8 and waiting on the snow.

Need 2.8 to go over 80, after that I'm just rooting for historic April numbers in NYC.

13.5 is the record for April in Central Park.

Let's get some tomorrow, next weekend, maybe next Tuesday. Go big or go home.

7 Largest April Snows in NYC

1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915
2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875
3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982
4.......8.5.....April 1, 1924
5.......6.5.....April 5, 1944
6.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917
7.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:44.8 and waiting on the snow.

Need 2.8 to go over 80, after that I'm just rooting for historic April numbers in NYC.

13.5 is the record for April in Central Park.

Let's get some tomorrow, next weekend, maybe next Tuesday. Go big or go home.

if the GFS forecast for next weekend holds you’ll be over 90 challenging 100.

Clear skies already down to 50* from a high of 60. Dewpoint 34*.

Looking at radar the storm is trucking in from the Midwest. Was over MO/IL a couple hours ago now over IN/OH.

38.5

Temps won't be an issue here, let's see if the qpf comes through.