Re: APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations

by **Scullybutcher** Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:43 pm

It’s 63* out. Going to have a hard time overcoming warm ground tomorrow, for accumulations.

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:12 pm

Accumulation on pavements during nighttime with no sun angle to contend with will depend on how quickly they get to freezing, or close enough to freezing if the snow is heavy. There is some lag time for road surfaces if they’ve really been heated up. I saw one study of an October snow in Montana where temps were around 70* at 2 pm but a cold front came through. Snow started falling at midnight. Temp had dropped to 32* by 12:30 am but road surfaces didn’t freeze until about 3 am. That is when the snow started accumulating. Tonight temps may not get to freezing until dawn in some spots and may never get to freezing in other spots. So accumulation on paved surfaces will really be dependent on precipitation intensity in those spots that can’t get down to freezing.

by **jmanley32** Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:42 pm

I can't believe its 60 today and its supposed to snow in about 12 hrs....Hard believe it will stick to anything. Am I hearing a bigger storm for Fri-Sat?! This is nuts.

by **Dtone** Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I can't believe its 60 today and its supposed to snow in about 12 hrs....Hard believe it will stick to anything. Am I hearing a bigger storm for Fri-Sat?! This is nuts.

The only hope is that the sun isnt shining bright. 60 with all the pavement/asphalt etc soaking up direct sunlight asorbs and stores alot of heat. The NWS discussion still had some uncertainty with UHI acclumation. Sounds like they contemplated leaving the city out of the Advisory but decided to play it safe and include everyone.

by **Scullybutcher** Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:21 pm

6” may fall from the sky but only and inch or 2 will stick

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:54 pm

Wind has shifted to the northwest and dewpoints are 38* (forecast to be upper 20s overnight). Temps in Ohio and western PA have dropped into the upper 40s, so colder air is approaching. Right now the HRRR has most people at or below freezing by 5 or 6 am. With dewpoints in the upper 20s easy to see how quickly the temps will drop once the precip gets going, which should start by 2 or 3 am.

by **Sanchize06** Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:58 pm

18z NAM, heavy snows just north of the R/S line, 6-8" in parts of CNJ. Probably a little overdone, but nice event

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 3 Sn10_acc.us_ne

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 3 Sn10_acc.us_ne

by **Sanchize06** Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:59 pm

18z GFS

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:59 pm

Very key factor here for roads is how heavy the snow gets before 7 am. With no sun and less traffic, areas that are in heavy snow at 5 or 6 am should see snow covered roads except maybe the major highways. If the snow is light, it will have a lot of trouble sticking on any road surface at these temps.

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:06 pm

We are in the Poconos on a family vaca and its 61° right and beautiful

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:08 pm

Some current temps to our west behind the cold front:
Erie PA 33*
Buffalo NY 32*
Cleveland OH 36*
Columbus OH 48*

by **Sanchize06** Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:11 pm

18z RGEM. Looks like 18z runs came in a little wetter

APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 3 Sn10_acc.us_ne

12z

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:11 pm

Skins sounds nice for now but if you’re still at 61 in the poconos grab your sweater because it probably will drop into the low 40s in the next couple hours.

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:05 pm

billg315 wrote:Skins sounds nice for now but if you’re still at 61 in the poconos grab your sweater because it probably will drop into the low 40s in the next couple hours.

I know its crazy. What's expected here in Poconos I'm hearing 6-8

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:14 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Skins sounds nice for now but if you’re still at 61 in the poconos grab your sweater because it probably will drop into the low 40s in the next couple hours.

I know its crazy. What's expected here in Poconos I'm hearing 6-8

I’ve been seeing 3-5” for that general area. But poconos are tricky due to varying elevations so not sure how that is playing into things. I’ll say this you should definitely wake up to accumulating snow there if you’re still there tomorrow morning. From low 60s and sun at sunset to 30 with snow at dawn. Lol

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:17 pm

If the temp there hasn’t dropped yet it should soon. I just checked and Mt Pocono and Lake Harmony are 40 and 43. Your drop can’t be far behind.

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:28 pm

18z NAM Snow map 10:1:
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 3 96a35210

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:30 pm

44.8 and waiting on the snow.

Need 2.8 to go over 80, after that I'm just rooting for historic April numbers in NYC.

13.5 is the record for April in Central Park.

Let's get some tomorrow, next weekend, maybe next Tuesday. Go big or go home.

7 Largest April Snows in NYC

1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915
2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875
3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982
4.......8.5.....April 1, 1924
5.......6.5.....April 5, 1944
6.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917
7.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:44.8 and waiting on the snow.

Need 2.8 to go over 80, after that I'm just rooting for historic April numbers in NYC.

13.5 is the record for April in Central Park.

Let's get some tomorrow, next weekend, maybe next Tuesday. Go big or go home.

if the GFS forecast for next weekend holds you’ll be over 90 challenging 100.

by **sroc4** Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:37 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:44.8 and waiting on the snow.

Need 2.8 to go over 80, after that I'm just rooting for historic April numbers in NYC.

13.5 is the record for April in Central Park.

Let's get some tomorrow, next weekend, maybe next Tuesday. Go big or go home.

7 Largest April Snows in NYC

1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915
2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875
3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982
4.......8.5.....April 1, 1924
5.......6.5.....April 5, 1944
6.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917
7.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938

Whoa. It’s been awhile. I think it’s time to re write history. Don’t you think?

by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:12 pm

Clear skies already down to 50* from a high of 60. Dewpoint 34*.

by **MattyICE** Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:19 pm

Down to 45 in Clifton. Feels much colder. No clouds.

by **Math23x7** Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:27 pm

How often do you see it snow when there is an H right over you?
APRIL 2nd 2018 SNOW!!! Model Discussions AND Observations - Page 3 15226210

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by **billg315** Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:29 pm

Looking at radar the storm is trucking in from the Midwest. Was over MO/IL a couple hours ago now over IN/OH.

by **heehaw453** Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:37 pm

47 here. Hoping for 4” which would give me 70”+ for season. Did have an inch last Sunday. Kids Easter egg hunt was fun in the snow.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:19 pm

38.5

Temps won't be an issue here, let's see if the qpf comes through.

by **rb924119** Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:30 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:We are in the Poconos on a family vaca and its 61° right and beautiful

Where the heck in the Poconos are you? Lmao I'm here at my parents and we had snow this morning and even with bright sun this afternoon never even made it past the mid-40s. Currently just above freezing at 33.

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