2018 Hurricane Season

Watching the 12z GFS play out. The first trough missed and the ridge is building in. Nothing to stop Florence from making at least a glancing blow to the east coast.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Watching the 12z GFS play out. The first trough missed and the ridge is building in. Nothing to stop Florence from making at least a glancing blow to the east coast.

Yep its go be a nail biter to have a 920mb hurricane headed to the coast not knowing exactly when and if it will turn. Euro looks like its going to do similar. Oh and gf s has the next one coming up the coast too. Lol gfs oh you

Euro is wayyy off on intensity. Like a Scott said this will b an issue.

Euro at hr 192 has Florence landfall on Virginia Beach as a major cane. Edit... center stays just off shore and rides the coastline. Hr 216 about 100 miles SE of Cape May N.J.

12z EURO is madonne...

Ok euro is bad. Weird it makes landfall in midatlantic but then backs away on last frame. Weird.

Frank_Wx wrote:12z EURO is madonne...

a madonne from frank 8 days out...do u still stand by a likely its? Or are u thinking it may b possible and if so when might u decide to take things seriously. One of my coworkers already asked me did I hear hurricane thurs Fri next week. So obviously there's talk of it in media already ugh.

Holy Euro



...and of course WX Twitter just lost their gd minds.

Frank_Wx wrote:12z EURO is madonne...

Well this will leave a mark, wow!

Here we go again with the local media hype. They need to chill out. Any potential storm impacts are still at least a week away. At this far out juncture NC to Nova Scotia is at play here. An OTS track is still on the table, but I feel like that is diminishing with the ever persistent under modeled ridge. In the mean time we track!!!

SoulSingMG wrote:Holy Euro



...and of course WX Twitter just lost their gd minds.

yep well at least it won't be a surprise to people if she does make it across.

Note what I said above from hr 216 to 240 she appears to ever so slightly get shunted South but that's 24 hrs of barely moving along coast yikes!!

Has anyone seen 12z ensembles I hear they trended more ots. Can anyone confirm this or are they still split or more match euro operationsl?

CAT 4 status 130mph winds even NHC didnt see this coming, note how much further south/west the cone is than it was initially days ago (and if thats the position on sun/mon when the system was supposed to be pulled out, it looks way to far south to be influenced.) Plus only one H in there and I doubt she drops to a cat 2 at all. Interesting days coming!

12z ensembles are not even close to correct pressure or intensity but paint a picture that its basically split but came further north on the EC area, also someone made a point, gordon could effect the westerlies and keep florence more south, does this havew merit as a possibility?

She's a true buzzsaw. Monster prolly only go get stronger.

There are a lot of moving parts at play here that stretch from the PAC through the NATL here guys. AS PB pointed out what the trough in the WC does, where it sets up and how strong it is coupled with the diabatic heat release, the strength of block - does it pumped by teh warm waters of the NATL as JB has been harping on, and the global view of Europe and the PAC cyclones that are pumping enormous amounts of water vapor and humidity into the jet stream which will have downstream effects. This is all fascinating and the models will struggle immensely overall IMO. 
She is quite compact and is foretasted to run into shear but that might not have as much as effect on her as we have sen her ability to ramp up. Maybe it will dissipate her, weaken her so she slides under the block and then gets pushed into teh coast.
Time will tell but it is a concern for the coast to watch this.
Lots of time here.
A few more days to see what happens with this whole pattern evolution. When was the last time an AEW made the trek across the Atlantic and slammed the EC as a major hcane? 1903? 1821?



Okay low solar for the 6 days, typhoons in the PAC pumping all this way or vapor and the warm anomalous waters in the Hotlantic pumping the Ridge coming about.
We'll see.

jmanley32 wrote:She's a true buzzsaw. Monster prolly only go get stronger.

and she has not hit the really warm waters yet, am I correct?

Turning NW at 174 hours like the Euro

GFS is about to go boom

Wow GFS is similiar to the Euro

sroc4 wrote:18z GFS is pretty much the worst case scenario for this storm from Cape Hatt Through NE.

Still a long way to go with this one.

I dunno what to say at gf s...a cat 5 up Chesapeake....I can't even imagine and even with my obsession with canes and wind is be scared shitless. Highest wind I've ever experienced was prolly 100mph in bob and those were gusts.

Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

amugs wrote:Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

Oh boy, I know you listen to this guy, most of you all so heads up I guess.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

Oh boy, I know you listen to this guy, most of you all so heads up I guess.

J Man Gonna be some long days ahead tracking.....................

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Our own Armando Salvatore posted on another board and if he leaning then we watch 

Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs

Oh boy, I know you listen to this guy, most of you all so heads up I guess.

J Man Gonna be some long days ahead tracking.....................

for sure getting my rest now show starts or ends Sunday Monday I think. What have people been say on storm2k?