Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

by **amugs** Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:GFS solns for Florence are like a bipolar 16yr old girl. Not something I trust when they tell me something.
lol, but I did hear the Euro ensembles have quite a few taking the west track is this true?

Yes it is true

From wx Bell.and JB

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:13 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:GFS solns for Florence are like a bipolar 16yr old girl. Not something I trust when they tell me something.
lol, but I did hear the Euro ensembles have quite a few taking the west track is this true?
Yes it is true

From wx Bell.and JB

weak though, thats all over the place, we really have to wait and see if she makes the connection to get shunted out, if not then we def got something to watch.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:16 pm

Jeeze, hyper active can you say!! If this keeps up it will be a above average season easily. Not even first full week of Sept, and have 2 named one on the way and another just emerged!

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:43 pm

Levi Cowens take on Florence, still way up in the air in the long range, but it is NOT a definitive OTS solution from how I took the video, nor is it a definitive threat, gotta wait till its around Sunday as stated by Bernie and others.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2018/09/04/tuesday-night-gordon-nearing-landfall-warily-monitoring-florence/

by **Sanchize06** Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:59 pm

Florence now a Cat 2, winds up to 100 mph

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:08 pm

WOW, talk about rapid intensification for one that was supposed to stay a TS, lets see how this effects the track, they still have a southern dip in the cone and a northern turn but nothing prounounced yet, we will see. This is def go be one that is going to take its own personality and track.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?&initsattype=swir&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=972&initimdimy=761&initrange=24.250000000000:-49.500000000000:15.750000000000:-36.000000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=15&initlightning=On&initinterstates=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:12 am

jmanley32 wrote:WOW, talk about rapid intensification for one that was supposed to stay a TS, lets see how this effects the track, they still have a southern dip in the cone and a northern turn but nothing prounounced yet, we will see. This is def go be one that is going to take its own personality and track.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?&initsattype=swir&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=972&initimdimy=761&initrange=24.250000000000:-49.500000000000:15.750000000000:-36.000000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=15&initlightning=On&initinterstates=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off

I have a sneaky suspicion she's gonna be FULL of surprises in the coming days Laughing

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:38 am

Another dicey GFS run for the East Coast re. Florence..... Shocked

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:01 am

Euro goes way west with Flirence

by **Radz** Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:55 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Euro goes way west with Florence
With warm SST, this would be disastrous - Hugo-Elsque even

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:28 am

Radz wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Euro goes way west with Florence
With warm SST, this would be disastrous - Hugo-Elsque even

Bathtub water even up here

by jwalsh Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:59 am

06z GFS...goes on to landfall in the Cape Cod area

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:05 am

jwalsh wrote:06z GFS...goes on to landfall in the Cape Cod area

and hits 895mb off midatlantic that's pure insanity. Well then lol a total revert from yesterday. Oh and she's up to 105mph storm. The cone actually takes her on a due west track in a few days then back wnw or nw. Dec odd track. I can't imagine have a cat 5 as gf s shows flirting with coast. Did u guys notice 00z gf s does a little loop just offshore before slamming nova Scotia lol ballerina

by **Quietace** Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:47 am

jwalsh wrote:06z GFS...goes on to landfall in the Cape Cod area

This image should be banned. GFS at its best....

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:51 am

Quietace wrote:
jwalsh wrote:06z GFS...goes on to landfall in the Cape Cod area
This image should be banned. GFS at its best....

hey you never know but ya this far out I'm not posting any models. What should b posted is satellite she is impressive. Nice eye. Gonna be a beast.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:24 am

Wow I think this will continue west with the WAR being strong

by **Sanchize06** Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:28 am

Still a few days away before we know for sure if this storm will escape in the weakness in the ridge or go WNW under the building Atlantic Ridge, but definitely some agreement that it will stay far enough south to allow the ridge to build in over the top. It's game on if that happens because then it's all up to how strong that ridge is and how much it gets pushed west

by **Sanchize06** Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:40 am

0z EPS

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 5 DmUZGqSU4AA8WNg

6z GEFS

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 5 06L_gefs_06z

by **Sanchize06** Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:45 am

Florence now a cat 3, winds 120 mph. Pressure 961mb

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:58 am

Sanchize06 wrote:Florence now a cat 3, winds 120 mph. Pressure 961mb

PLEASE Keep this in mind today.......Models will not be able to keep up with the rapidly changing data. Do not trust a soln outside 2-3 days right now. Seriously. Keep all solns on the table regardless of the model output over the next 2-3days. Euro overnight initialized Florence at 990mb. It was in the upper 970's at that time. 6z GFS initialized at 977. It was likely already well below that given the latest data. There will be an increase in the amount of latent heat energy inputted into the upper levels with this system being as strong as she is at the moment which will undoubtedly change the big picture in the long run; the likes of which models will not be able to handle right now.

With such rapidly changing environmental conditions the error in the model soln beyond 2-3days increases exponentially. PLEASE keep these facts in mind. Interesting storm though.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:00 am

Updated statement:

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still
strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory package.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM AST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

by **Sanchize06** Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:43 am

11am Update: Winds up 125 mph, pressure down to 957mb

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:05 am

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:48 am

Wow Jeeze and look at the forecast track now a more west tick.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:17 pm

Yeah Scott the models are not go b right as they aren't pick upon intensity. Look at euro ensembles above has a ts for quite some time. Until they ingest the actual intensity and figure out upper levelsmodels are kinda just a shot in the dark. Though I do agree that this one may very well be a big threat next week. Or not. We will see. Florence as nhc said is flourishing despite shear.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:18 pm

Watching the 12z GFS play out. The first trough missed and the ridge is building in. Nothing to stop Florence from making at least a glancing blow to the east coast.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Watching the 12z GFS play out. The first trough missed and the ridge is building in. Nothing to stop Florence from making at least a glancing blow to the east coast.

Yep its go be a nail biter to have a 920mb hurricane headed to the coast not knowing exactly when and if it will turn. Euro looks like its going to do similar. Oh and gf s has the next one coming up the coast too. Lol gfs oh you

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