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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 Empty Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:53 pm

The track guidance continues to
show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope
and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has
again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are
nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC
errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,
respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the
center.


FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 Fa30d710
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:03 pm

It'll be interesting to see if there's any changes in 0z tonight after the rapid intensification. The 0z ICON initializes 40mb weaker though, so maybe not lol

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Post by Zhukov1945 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:06 pm


ICON inbound now...btw is this model worth anything? Really never heard any strong opinions on it one way or another.
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Post by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:06 pm

This thing is going to pass right through the outer banks late Thursday night and then SLOWLY crawl due north into the Chesapeake bay by Saturday afternoon. We will get soaking rains and an easterly wind Sunday Monday amounting to a good nor’easter

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Post by Zhukov1945 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:This thing is going to pass right through the outer banks late Thursday night and then SLOWLY crawl due north into the Chesapeake bay by Saturday afternoon. We will get soaking rains and an easterly wind Sunday Monday amounting to a good nor’easter

Relative to where we were a day or so ago I'll take it
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Post by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:14 pm

@Zhukov1945 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:This thing is going to pass right through the outer banks late Thursday night and then SLOWLY crawl due north into the Chesapeake bay by Saturday afternoon. We will get soaking rains and an easterly wind Sunday Monday amounting to a good nor’easter

Relative to where we were a day or so ago I'll take it

That’s assuming I’m correct. I don’t know much so take it with a grain of salt

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 pm

ICON hovering over the Outer Banks at hr 102, but ridge is weakening now overhead, could start to drift north along the coast

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Post by rb924119 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:ICON hovering over the Outer Banks at hr 102, but ridge is weakening now overhead, could start to drift north along the coast

Confirmed.

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:33 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:ICON hovering over the Outer Banks at hr 102, but ridge is weakening now overhead, could start to drift north along the coast

Confirmed.

That run confuses me, seemed to me as there was enough room for it to come north as the ridge broke down a bit

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:38 pm

GFS initializes at 956mb, better at least.

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:09 am

00z GFS stalls her over the Outer Banks, effectively decimating them. Mad
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:10 am

CMC coming in more north

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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:15 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:CMC coming in more north

And then it goes SW like the GFS

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:01 am

If the 0Z ECMWF OP were to verify, Wilmington, NC is doomed.

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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:45 am

Most guidance has shifted Southward last night and Florence makes landfall in Southern North Carolina. I think the only way that we will see any effects from her is if she stalls off the coast and remains strong and sits there for several days before moving northward. If she stalls Over land she will weaken too much then we will probably have zero impact from her
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:32 am

There appears to be an increased area of shar unexpectedly developing out ahead of Florence.  As a result she looks only slightly less organized this morning

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 Www10



Looks like models are converging on this area of as direct impact.  I warn though that last minute wiggles and wobbles can and often do happen.  Regardless of the exact location there will be a wide area of devastation, much wider than what is shown here.  This is merely a potential landfall location.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 Gz10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:50 am

Microwave imagery indicates she might actually be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) at the moment.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 GifsBy12hr_12

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:42 am

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 2004604C-6653-4B2C-8227-B89668FE37E0.png.cd06b9c7d690f50b6ae2166fc8baee2d

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:12 am

Shear and or concurrent ERC has def weakened her a little. Pressures are up from low 940's to now low 950's

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 Recon_AF308-0706A-FLORENCE


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:30 am

Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:51 am

syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy. bananadude told ya

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:54 am

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy.  bananadude told ya

See you then Scott

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:18 am

Scroc when do you they will they have an idea of where this is going to make landfall?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:46 am

12z NAM stalls Flor just off NC's coast. Catastrophic rain.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 17 Namconus_apcpn_seus_28

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:47 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy.  bananadude told ya

See you then Scott
hey when I said move on you didn't like it Scott syo says it and its fine...hmmm. I agree doesn't look like we go see anything. But I'm not quitting completely. Btw did u guys see the rain map for nc yikes 20 plus!
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