FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

12z NAM stalls Flor just off NC's coast. Catastrophic rain.

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy.  

See you then Scott

hey when I said move on you didn't like it Scott syo says it and its fine...hmmm. I agree doesn't look like we go see anything. But I'm not quitting completely. Btw did u guys see the rain map for nc yikes 20 plus!

Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM stalls Flor just off NC's coast. Catastrophic rain.

can this days of stalling rally happen? I mean its like out of a movie if so. Is there any chance we see secondary impacts like a weakening cat 1 or even ts? Or is that completely off the table. My gut says its not totally off the table. She's still pretty far away and a storm like this can do whatever she wants. But wanted your input on chances.

jmanley32 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy.  

See you then Scott

hey when I said move on you didn't like it Scott syo says it and its fine...hmmm. I agree doesn't look like we go see anything. But I'm not quitting completely. Btw did u guys see the rain map for nc yikes 20 plus!

Jon seriously?

Eyewall replacement underway. She'll be a Cat 5 tomorrow if I were a betting man. It's becoming increasingly apparent that it'll approach the Carolinas and stall either just on or off shore. They're in big trouble. As far as we're concerned, the ridge appears it'll be just too strong for us to worry about any impacts, aside from maybe some remnant stuff beginning of next week.

In terms of path I think I'm sticking with my call from Saturday as that still seems consistent with the way things are going. The only caveat being that I originally thought the remnants would move quickly northeast after landfall, but now it appears there is increasing agreement that this thing is going to stall or loop for a bit near the NC coast so any impacts here would be early next week. If this does stall or loop I think, sad to say, NC is looking at Harvey-like rainfall impacts. As Soul said, for us it looks like just some heavy rain showers as the remnants move northeastward, probably around Monday.

Today's 12z GFS is Euroesque and takes her to the North Carolina South Carolina border

12z GFS caves to King Euro.

Also missing from the GFS is the 907mb cat 7 that she was showing yesterday and for the last few days not that anyone thought it was going to actually happen

11am cone shifted east with a curve. Not a trend for up here. Still changes can happen but I'm go cap this soon.

Yesterday's 12z GFS at hour 144 had Florence at 903 MB sitting just east of Cape Hatteras today at hour 120 has her over Eastern Kentucky Tennessee border at 1008 Mb. It's such a god-awful model

Yep the storm looks to be tracking to make a direct hit around swansboro/Jackson ville...emerald isle area of it stays on track...that is where family friends are from..and that is where Camp Laguene is..what a mess..... Syos..they moved their location they told my mom

weatherwatchermom wrote:Yep the storm looks to be tracking to make a direct hit around swansboro/Jackson ville...emerald isle area of it stays on track...that is where family friends are from..and that is where Camp Laguene is..what a mess..... Syos..they moved their location they told my mom

Glad to hear. Central SC should be safe

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GFS caves to King Euro.

Even though the current forecast still has landfall within my southen zone of landfall expectation For selfish reasons I want this to shift north about 100-150miles from where the GFS went with 12z, however, I still am not sure the Atlantic ridge breaks down as fast as is modeled.  Even though GFS shifted south with this run this is also about the time where the euro corrects north.  Not by a huge margin, but do not be surprised by that.  Ukie shifted back north at 12z.  With stilkl 2 1/2 days left before landfall Shifts N OR S of 100-150miles or less are still on the table.  

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GFS caves to King Euro.

Even though the current forecast still has landfall within my southen zone of landfall expectation For selfish reasons I want this to shift north about 100-150miles from where the GFS went with 12z, however, I still am not sure the Atlantic ridge breaks down as fast as is modeled.  Even though GFS shifted south with this run this is also about the time where the euro corrects north.  Not by a huge margin, but do not be surprised by that.  Ukie shifted back north at 12z.  With stilkl 2 1/2 days left before landfall Shifts N OR S of 100-150miles or less are still on the table.  

Yeah the UKMET can often be a precursor to what the next Euro run might depict...

SoulSingMG wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GFS caves to King Euro.

Even though the current forecast still has landfall within my southen zone of landfall expectation For selfish reasons I want this to shift north about 100-150miles from where the GFS went with 12z, however, I still am not sure the Atlantic ridge breaks down as fast as is modeled.  Even though GFS shifted south with this run this is also about the time where the euro corrects north.  Not by a huge margin, but do not be surprised by that.  Ukie shifted back north at 12z.  With stilkl 2 1/2 days left before landfall Shifts N OR S of 100-150miles or less are still on the table.  

Yeah the UKMET can often be a precursor to what the next Euro run might depict...

Right on cue the north shift is in on the euro. Again not huge but by about 100miles or so +/-25

How do you guys gauge the miles on a map with no legend I was always curious.

jmanley32 wrote:How do you guys gauge the miles on a map with no legend I was always curious.

If there is no scale, I usually just pick a distance I know (i.e. Philly to Pittsburgh is about 300 miles) and use that as a guide for other parts of the map.

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GFS caves to King Euro.

Even though the current forecast still has landfall within my southen zone of landfall expectation For selfish reasons I want this to shift north about 100-150miles from where the GFS went with 12z, however, I still am not sure the Atlantic ridge breaks down as fast as is modeled.  Even though GFS shifted south with this run this is also about the time where the euro corrects north.  Not by a huge margin, but do not be surprised by that.  Ukie shifted back north at 12z.  With stilkl 2 1/2 days left before landfall Shifts N OR S of 100-150miles or less are still on the table.  

Yeah the UKMET can often be a precursor to what the next Euro run might depict...

Right on cue the north shift is in on the euro.  Again not huge but by about 100miles or so +/-25

ehh more like 50-75 miles north overall. Jon I use my radar scope app. It has a radius measure feature. I look on a run to see one landfall then another then open the app and measure. Ive don it enough times where I can eyeball it close enough. I also know that 1* of latitude is approx 70miles so any map with Lat lines I can eyeball as well.

Ahh cool. Ya I'm bad with distance except locally and like into ct and cape cod.

Wow. Euro run is crazy. Makes it about 75miles N of 00z's landfall into NC but then stalls just on the coast line for a day; then drifts S/SW into SC then Ga. It aint ova folks. There is a ridge developing to the west of Flo as she reaches the coast right as the ridge over the Atlantic is breaking down. Steering flow to the N and NW compliments of the Atlantic ridge weakens while the new ridge to the west builds generating a S/SW component. We are def not finished. Sum of all vectors. Crazy

sroc4 wrote:Wow.  Euro run is crazy.  Makes it about 75miles N of 00z's landfall into NC but then stalls just on the coast line for a day; then drifts S/SW into SC then Ga.  It aint ova folks.  There is a ridge developing to the west of Flo as she reaches the coast right as the ridge over the Atlantic is breaking down.  Steering flow to the N and NW compliments of the Atlantic ridge weakens while the new ridge to the west builds generating a S/SW component.  We are def not finished.  Sum of all vectors.  Crazy

So this means we are def out of any effects and now GA and FL are back in or are u basically saying the models still dont got a clue and the next run could be north up the coast for all we know?

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Wow.  Euro run is crazy.  Makes it about 75miles N of 00z's landfall into NC but then stalls just on the coast line for a day; then drifts S/SW into SC then Ga.  It aint ova folks.  There is a ridge developing to the west of Flo as she reaches the coast right as the ridge over the Atlantic is breaking down.  Steering flow to the N and NW compliments of the Atlantic ridge weakens while the new ridge to the west builds generating a S/SW component.  We are def not finished.  Sum of all vectors.  Crazy

So this means we are def out of any effects and now GA and FL are back in or are u basically saying the models still dont got a clue and the next run could be north up the coast for all we know?

I don't think jman this comes up the coast

A lot of EPS members now also show a stall off the coast of NC. Then they show Flor drifting S-SW into SC. Man they're in for a rude awakening down there

By rude awakening you mean something bad for SC? My daughter goes to school down there so I've been following this storm with particular interest.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Wow.  Euro run is crazy.  Makes it about 75miles N of 00z's landfall into NC but then stalls just on the coast line for a day; then drifts S/SW into SC then Ga.  It aint ova folks.  There is a ridge developing to the west of Flo as she reaches the coast right as the ridge over the Atlantic is breaking down.  Steering flow to the N and NW compliments of the Atlantic ridge weakens while the new ridge to the west builds generating a S/SW component.  We are def not finished.  Sum of all vectors.  Crazy

So this means we are def out of any effects and now GA and FL are back in or are u basically saying the models still dont got a clue and the next run could be north up the coast for all we know?

I don't think jman this comes up the coast

figured I pray for all those down south. See you all if and when next threat comes. But once again it just doesn't happen up here gotta remember I think unless we have a cone over us for a long time like nc has then we can worry. I dunno if we will have anymore threats this year. I heard the cabo Verde season is go shut off and nowhere else is really primed.