FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

00z going for a SC/GA hit? further south by quite a bit at hr 126.

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Is the icon a new model..this is the first time I see it being mentioned with this storm...

Yes, I believe it's the new German model. Not sure how great it is lol

tx that run did not bode well for us

no it misses completely, the beaches would get battered but theres no rain or wind impacts looks like.

that's what I was talking about....they are working right now on sand replenishment in Seaside...

still headed to NC, guess shes just a bit slower, not more south.

SLow, only hitting carolinas next friday, meaning any impacts on this run would be over the weekend 15/16 or even into monday tuesday, uggg

jmanley32 wrote:sanchiz, is there anyway in the icon run that she could get pushed back west into a landfall, or is a OTS the only way? That would be crazy.

It would likely turn OTS I think or parallel the coast. From the angle it took, I don't see a way it could miss NC and turn in here. Unless of course it's more north than what's being shown

Oh no it looks like florence hits and then starts a jog to the NE, oh boy..



She has dumped 24 inches of rain in carolinas by this time, yikes! and was 936mb at landfall.

This is the second run in a row I've noticed some flatter heights over SE Canada and a little weaker on the west side of this ridge. That's definitely something to watch the next few days. Could be why the last two runs don't get as far inland. They turn NNE quicker

So we are down to the wire on thius run does she remerge and head ots, or hug coast? 2nd would be bad, even though weakened to low cat 1 or TS, this is looking again like irene.

Holy smokes thats alot of rain!!!

At hour 180 Florence is getting back into open waters. Yikes!

Riding coast at 186, jeeze we back to almost 10 days out on this run! This IS one thing I hate about tracking tropics.

nutleyblizzard wrote:At hour 180 Florence is getting back into open waters. Yikes!

Looks like she may go more OTS and miss hr 192 moves almost due east.

South jersey sees 5-10 inches of rain so far hr 192 wow

Oh crap, that east turn was short lived now riding just off coast hr 198, intensified down to 989 now uh oh

She hit the block, OTS, this is too far out anyways to be right we are back to 10/11 days if this run is right on timing.

Florence is such a tease!

No model consensus Cmc hits Georgia and dissipates heading west into Louisiana lol

jmanley32 wrote:No model consensus Cmc hits Georgia and dissipates heading west into Louisiana lol

Models are going to waffle for a couple more days. Small nuances in the upper levels will have big time impacts with track. Not staying up for Euro. I will check it out in the morning.

00Z EURO takes Florence into SC but little affects here region-wide verbatim.

Jeeze can someone explain the 06z gfs what a weird run so far scrapes obx then heads so.pay due south and meanders while getting down to 913mb. Can she really pull a move like that? Monday 17th still effecting obx Jesus. Wasn't there a storm many years ago that did this but never actually made full landfall. I don't buy this run st all. If it does move up now we talking 10 to 15 days away lol omg help me

The GFS continues to be the furthest north solution. It has "trended" south almost every run, showing little consistency.



This, of course, is being discussed as Florence is moving WSW/SW and is on the southern envelope of most forecast guidance.

jmanley32 wrote:Jeeze can someone explain the 06z gfs what a weird run so far scrapes obx then heads so.pay due south and meanders while getting down to 913mb. Can she really pull a move like that? Monday 17th still effecting obx Jesus. Wasn't there a storm many years ago that did this but never actually made full landfall. I don't buy this run st all. If it does move up now we talking 10 to 15 days away lol omg help me

Well, have you seen the "block" to its north? Unfortunately, you cannot drive a bus through a 20 ft concrete wall, so the bus turns around and meanders in front of the wall. The trend has not been favorable (I guess if folks in the northeast are rooting for seeing Florence) for much poleward movement of the storm to a certain extent. The GFS is continuing to be an outlier, and the evolution of the pattern as we finally get closer to landfall continues to favor a southern track. The trend with the ensemble members on the EPS has been distinct, with continually less in the "northward turn/ GFS" camp. I expect this to continue as Florences strength suggest further WSW/W movement until strengthening.

Florence looking much better organized as she emerged from the darkness this morning...

IM GOING TO SHOOT MYSELF.  I JUST SPEND AN HOUR PUTTING TOGETHER A REALLY NICE WRITE UP AND SOMEHOW I HIT A RANDOM BUTTON AND LOST IT ALL.                                                        

In a nutshell.  Environmental contions are improving rapidly.  She is moving into warmer waters and shear is dropping off fast.




As seen on the latest euro ens forecast the weaker system forecast tracks are all on in the southern groupings both in tight to current location as well as when she approaches the coast vs the northern groupings are the stronger system solns.  



As you can see in the current sat loop she is getting better organized as we speak as seen by improved convection reforming around the southern periphery and the low and mid level circulations appears to becoming more vertically stacked again.  



IMHO the result of improving local environmental conditions a period of rapid intensification within the next 24-48hrs is imminent; the result of which leads to a shift to the overall track forecast north of where we see it now over this same time frame.  I also expect the models to lag behind in picking up on this rapid intensification.  How far N?  I don't know, but expect a shift to occur within the euro modeling suite.

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Jeeze can someone explain the 06z gfs what a weird run so far scrapes obx then heads so.pay due south and meanders while getting down to 913mb. Can she really pull a move like that? Monday 17th still effecting obx Jesus. Wasn't there a storm many years ago that did this but never actually made full landfall. I don't buy this run st all. If it does move up now we talking 10 to 15 days away lol omg help me

Well, have you seen the "block" to its north? Unfortunately, you cannot drive a bus through a 20 ft concrete wall, so the bus turns around and meanders in front of the wall. The trend has not been favorable (I guess if folks in the northeast are rooting for seeing Florence) for much poleward movement of the storm to a certain extent. The GFS is continuing to be an outlier, and the evolution of the pattern as we finally get closer to landfall continues to favor a southern track. The trend with the ensemble members on the EPS has been distinct, with continually less in the "northward turn/ GFS" camp. I expect this to continue as Florences strength suggest further WSW/W movement until strengthening.

See my write up above. I think if it gets to 25N before or while it reaches 60W we see a N shift to the euro suite. Well see

Certainly some dry air wrapping into the center of circulation this morning.

Quietace wrote:Certainly some dry air wrapping into the center of circulation this morning.

Wow! #truth. It was not that evident early this morning but it certainly is apparent now.