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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

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Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:57 am

Certainly some dry air wrapping into the center of circulation this morning.
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 Codgoe10

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:07 am

Quietace wrote:Certainly some dry air wrapping into the center of circulation this morning.
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 Codgoe10

Wow! #truth. It was not that evident early this morning but it certainly is apparent now.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 Dry_ai11

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Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:20 am

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Certainly some dry air wrapping into the center of circulation this morning.
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 Codgoe10

Wow!  #truth.  It was not that evident early this morning but it certainly is apparent now.  

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 Dry_ai11
Which will have some significant short-term intensity implications (Florence looks pretty bad on IR compared to, as you said, this morning). The SW movement also continues with the COC almost at 24 N now (it was closer to 25 ish N earlier today).
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:00 am

Rayno:

"Look for guidance to start moving adjusting the tracks further north..well that's my theory. My area (assuming landfall) is between Myrtle Beach to Cape Cod."
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:00 am

Checked in with some pro mets videos last night and they are expecting GFS to adjust south toward Euro and head toward the Carolinas. Then it's just a matter of how far inland it tracks as it heads north.

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Post by Grselig Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:07 am

SROC says maybe north. Rayno says north. Other pro mets say south. Our own Quiet Ace suggests south because of the block. Going to be interesting to see what really pans out.
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Post by larryrock72 Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:08 am

Any chance the blocking high is not as strong or weakens? Then maybe she skirts the outer banks and ots?

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:12 am

larryrock72 wrote:Any chance the blocking high is not as strong or weakens? Then maybe she skirts the outer banks and ots?

That's the key, the strength of the block. If it weakens the storm could turn north sooner, bringing landfall further north. That's why mets won't lock in a southern landfall yet...

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Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:13 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Rayno:

"Look for guidance to start moving adjusting the tracks further north..well that's my theory. My area (assuming landfall) is between Myrtle Beach to Cape Cod."
scratch
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:14 am

12z Hurricane models, a grouping now east of NC. That grouping is very similar to the trend within the GFS and ICON the past few runs. Can't really tell if it stalls or it's the end of the run

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 06L_tracks_12z

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:18 am

0Z FV3-GFS has a wacky run. I think once the recon data starts to come in the tracks will tighten.

Till then we track and track
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:03 am

My current thinking (for what it’s worth - which is not much) is that the system and trailing front with Gordo’s moisture moves through between Sunday and Tuesday. High Pressure slides over Eastern Canada/New England behind it mid-week as the front sinks south. Florence gets initially held south and makes landfall in North Carolina, but as the High slides east and a new front dives into the Midwest the remnants of Florence gets steered back northeast over VA, PA, NJ, CT or LI before exiting out to sea. This produces hurricane impacts in NC then heavy rains and flooding for most of the mid-Atlantic and our region with minimal winds (some gusts). If looking for a similar path I’d say Hurricane Diane 1955. (Just the path; That storm had some of its energy used up by Connie which made landfall in the same spot a few days earlier, although the combined effects of those storms produced epic flooding).
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:43 am

billg315 wrote:My current thinking (for what it’s worth - which is not much) is that the system and trailing front with Gordo’s moisture moves through between Sunday and Tuesday. High Pressure slides over Eastern Canada/New England behind it mid-week as the front sinks south. Florence gets initially held south and makes landfall in North Carolina, but as the High slides east and a new front dives into the Midwest the remnants of Florence gets steered back northeast over VA, PA, NJ, CT or LI before exiting out to sea. This produces hurricane impacts in NC then heavy rains and flooding for most of the mid-Atlantic and our region with minimal winds (some gusts). If looking for a similar path I’d say Hurricane Diane 1955. (Just the path; That storm had some of its energy used up by Connie which made landfall in the same spot a few days earlier, although the combined effects of those storms produced epic flooding).
If one wants a further north solution to take place (which ashamed to say I'm one of them), you need one of two things to happen... Florence intensifies quicker than forecasted which in turn changes the upper levels enough to bring the storm on a more WNW path vs west. Or better yet, the forward speed of Florence slows down which allows the high to move eastward thus allowing the storm to catch up to the ridge's western flank thus opening up a path to bring her up the coastline.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:49 am

I think their cone is a little too far south. I don't see this going into FL or GA. But I also do not see it getting into the Delmarva or SNJ. So...Carolina's should be on alert.

And yes, it is possible the remnants track our way to bring heavy tropical rainfall. That would pretty much be the extent of it for us.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 41368486_10214309100696440_7928434874510213120_n

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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:56 am

Florence still at 65mph at the 11am advisory. Pressure down 1mb to 995. Does looks better organized though. It'll be interesting to see if she becomes a hurricane again by tonight

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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:02 am

INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.6N 56.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.1N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 64.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 31.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:05 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I think their cone is a little too far south. I don't see this going into FL or GA. But I also do not see it getting into the Delmarva or SNJ. So...Carolina's should be on alert.

And yes, it is possible the remnants track our way to bring heavy tropical rainfall. That would pretty much be the extent of it for us.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 41368486_10214309100696440_7928434874510213120_n

Latest cone/advisory:

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 38c12d10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:27 am

Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:34 am

jmanley32 wrote:Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.

Until tomorrow's 00z Euro shows her coming up the coast lol. It's just too early to say where she'll landfall. Much more confidence to be had beyond tomorrow night. FWIW, Cranky (whom you all love lol) and several others are pointing out factors as to why they think a north trend will start soon.
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Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:50 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.

Until tomorrow's 00z Euro shows her coming up the coast lol. It's just too early to say where she'll landfall. Much more confidence to be had beyond tomorrow night. FWIW, Cranky (whom you all love lol) and several others are pointing out factors as to why they think a north trend will start soon.
What is the "why" in the reasoning for that? I'm just sitting at my desk coding so I am playing devil's advocate.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:59 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think their cone is a little too far south. I don't see this going into FL or GA. But I also do not see it getting into the Delmarva or SNJ. So...Carolina's should be on alert.

And yes, it is possible the remnants track our way to bring heavy tropical rainfall. That would pretty much be the extent of it for us.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 41368486_10214309100696440_7928434874510213120_n

Latest cone/advisory:

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 5 38c12d10

Still too far south for my liking. I would capture SC, NC, and southern VA

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:05 am

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.

Until tomorrow's 00z Euro shows her coming up the coast lol. It's just too early to say where she'll landfall. Much more confidence to be had beyond tomorrow night. FWIW, Cranky (whom you all love lol) and several others are pointing out factors as to why they think a north trend will start soon.
What is the "why" in the reasoning for that? I'm just sitting at my desk coding so I am playing devil's advocate.

Unresolved atmospheric entities ;-)

@crankywxguy:

"I slept on Thursday's thoughts and wrote the new entry on Friday to account for the evolution during benchmark one.

This produced your new envelope and then started to explain what has to happen next. This graphic from early Friday still stands. We have the stop point right where Florence enters the south west Atlantic and that is that. I have my envelope I end the smaller outside obejective potential. Do I have to shift this south and west? Maybe but I doubt it and only when the observations say so. No other way.

The highs and the problem to rebuild them. See, this is what those two pieces want to do. Gordon is between them and very strong as discussed further above. It is still a problem not yet resolved. Until it is you stay with a stop point in confidence and the downstream larger envelope remains.

Options still remain here. I personally still think we halt early somewhere around Hatteras to Virginia Capes and turn a little offshore. Then what I dont know. Coastal parallel, draw away from the coast, perhaps loop...all possible because of all those other smaller entities that Florence has to dance with. Very tricky and that portion will not be resolved until Tuesday or Wednesday. Just telling the truth here.

First we got to get past the stop point which I think we can do tomorrow. Then hopefully modeling will tighten up and we can start to incorporate it to start to narrow this down. Then draw a new focused envelope and start going for impacts."

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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:06 am

12z GFS looks to remain on the NE side of guidance. Heading toward the Outer Banks, we'll see if it hits the block like in 6z or comes up the coast

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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:16 am

CMC a bit stronger and north this run. Should have a landfall north of GA this time lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:24 am

I agree with Scott, and Frank, and anybody else who believes for a northward correction of models such as the EURO and UKMET suites. My initial forecast remains unchanged......for now.

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:26 am

12z GFS is OTS after parking offshore near the OBX, heading back south and then eventually back up and out.

I repeat: NO one knows where Flo will flow. ;-)
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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:36 am

Even though she is ingesting dry air her mid and low level circulation are vertically stacked. As soon as she mixes out the dry air kaboom

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