Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[sroc4]

We are now starting to see dramatic changes across all guidance and tele connectors. Here are just a few.  negative SOI negative East Asian Mountain torque that isotherm loves to talk about which should cause a ne pac jet retraction and alaskan ridge/-epo., mjo heading into cold phases 500mb reversal over the Arctic with the AO getting significantly negative, continue destruction of the polar vortex that will not consolidate anytime soon I'm thinking a quick Pattern change that last for weeks maybe right through the end of winter love to hear what others  think

Im not going to post it because its still hr 222, but euro snow storm at that time correlates perfectly with the current MJO forecasts into phase 8, and the current lag time of the SOI drop taking place now.  GFS is not quite as "pretty" but it has a system in the same general time frame.  Cautious optimism.

[devsman]

Saw the euro! Know it's fantasy land right now but absolute HECS with 20+ long island and sne.

[algae888]

We are now starting to see dramatic changes across all guidance and tele connectors. Here are just a few.  negative SOI negative East Asian Mountain torque that isotherm loves to talk about which should cause a ne pac jet retraction and alaskan ridge/-epo., mjo heading into cold phases 500mb reversal over the Arctic with the AO getting significantly negative, continue destruction of the polar vortex that will not consolidate anytime soon I'm thinking a quick Pattern change that last for weeks maybe right through the end of winter love to hear what others  think

Im not going to post it because its still hr 222, but euro snow storm at that time correlates perfectly with the current MJO forecasts into phase 8, and the current lag time of the SOI drop taking place now.  GFS is not quite as "pretty" but it has a system in the same general time frame.  Cautious optimism.

Yes. Not getting too overly optimistic but what a run that's 30 in of snow by you. I feel that the atmosphere is a powder keg ready to explode how it all sets up is yet to be seen but feeling cautiously optimistic at the moment

[amugs]

Things are starting to shape now and as we move forward the next 48 hours we will see the winter weenie start coming back from the dark side - yes that eis right kep he faith and we shall get you to the promise land for us snow weenies - pattern wise - build it and it will come, that is what is occurring as I write and has been this week - models have not been on this.

Look at the progression



Heights building over the arctic region, _ EPO coming into play as the GOA Low pressure starts to retrograde west which it usually does as teh wave lnegths shorten as we head into deep winter (I know nothing like it outside here but other places it is sick - Italia, Turkey, Greece, Austria, Oklahoma ....)

And here is the PAC progression overall to



There will be more correction as we move forward in the MJO forecast
From Isotherm:
The MJO is now in phase 7 and will be phase 8 by tomorrow, and the latest ECMWF indicates the extirpation in the null phase rather than continued propagation into phase 4. Expect to see even further improvements on the 12z EPS today for the period beginning the 10th.

[algae888]

Scott and Al the Monday Tuesday time frame is getting a little more interesting as the initial waa looks very weak and there is a follow-up wave that digs into the trough and explodes just south of Long Island the ukie,gfs and Euro have it temps are definitely an issue but if we can get that to dig a little farther south we could be dealing with a surprise snowstorm Tuesday Tuesday night.

[amugs]

King Ghidora is going cause havoc as PV sp;its usually do for where they set up and this is days 7 of shwoing the three headed monster split with one lobe over Hudson Bay/Newfoundland, One over EAstern Europe and teh other over WEstern Siberia. This one may have a big dowsntream effect for it can if place correctly pump the and then tehre fore teh PNA ridge.

So as I wrote on another wx board all this warmth for the past 30 days is what happened basically last winter with teh strat warming event - look what happened once we got a split from early March 4thish till APril 10-15thish? January Feb combo.
So the warm phases of the MJO transported all of that heat poleward which in return will return teh favor once we get established in our pattern.

Oh and four VEI level 3 volcanic eruptions by Angung and Krakatoa may have a big affect on our weather come March and or April depending on the volume of ash, sulfur and particles released - this can be VERY interesting if it comes to fruition.

Low Solar doing plenty of dirty work here peeps with blocking to develop and seismic activity - eq's and volcanoes!
https://electroverse.net/anak-krakatau-erupts-again-ash-ejected-15-km-50000-feet-a-s-l/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost

[sroc4]

Scott and Al the Monday Tuesday time frame is getting a little more interesting as the initial waa looks very weak and there is a follow-up wave that digs into the trough and explodes just south of Long Island the ukie,gfs and Euro have it temps are definitely an issue but if we can get that to dig a little farther south we could be dealing with a surprise snowstorm Tuesday Tuesday night.

Yeah Al. It has the feel for a possible IVT set up too. Def diff to predict but bottom line is we are back to tracking "something".

[amugs]

Al yes need a 50 mile push on this SE - low level cold air once again settling in - that secondary wave could very well shock many if it can dig - PNA spike is helping but timing is critical for this, delay it 4-6 hours and we can be dancing the white gold dance.

[amugs]

13h -15th time frame - Jim Witt storm peeps - gonna kick us off into a very good period.

[rb924119]

And this is EXACTLY why I never waived my white flag. I am am now seeing the evidence (and *consistently*) of the precursor pattern that I have been looking for, and it’s progged right on schedule (see my last post) to lock in for the end of Week 3/Week 4 of January. Folks, IT’S COMING. I do not like the 1/14 threat, but that will probably be the last one that I just don’t like outright. Get your rest, because this upcoming pattern will offer the increased opportunity to make up for lost time in a big way.

[frank 638]

And this is EXACTLY why I never waived my white flag. I am am now seeing the evidence (and *consistently*) of the precursor pattern that I have been looking for, and it’s progged right on schedule (see my last post) to lock in for the end of Week 3/Week 4 of January. Folks, IT’S COMING. I do not like the 1/14 threat, but that will probably be the last one that I just don’t like outright. Get your rest, because this upcoming pattern will offer the increased  opportunity to make up for lost time in a big way.

thank you for the excellent news I am ready for it

[frank 638]

Lee Goldberg has mention it's going to get colder starting either Wednesday or Thursday and we may have to watch for a first snowstorm of the year of 2019 for next Saturday even for the coast and City my fingers are crossed

[dkodgis]

The First Due Weather Site, courtesy of my wife because I have never heard of it, says the Euro is predicting a big whopper of a storm Monday, Jan 14. My tongue hangs out and I share because I have no option of getting the Euro myself. Even if I did, I could not interpret it. I am a dunce with weather.

[Snow88]

The pattern is going to get better thanks to the mjo,.

[amugs]

For the 10000th time Jan 13-15th big storm as pet Jim Witt, Zoo back me up here sista!! On the calendar back pages with dates to watch.

Okay all I can say is that the flip is coming and it may be hard looking at WPO, EAMT, MJO phase and Jet Retraction of the Pacific. I am seein the PV winds decreasing to levels that are near all time lows ala 1985 which was a very cold period from mid Jan through late Feb.in that the year split. The Canadian and arctic domains have lots of HP building which will block us up overhead like November. I feel a rather quick flip to the contrary period coming .
Another thing the STJ will be roaring as it has been and this will allow for multiple storms unlike the 1985 analogy I have posed.
1.2 finally has gone Negative and we have a Modoki Type Nino working here, not declared and most likely won't but it is here for the now which is also a good sign.

[amugs]

The pattern is going to get better thanks to the mjo,.

That is one aspect Tony and yes it will be a driver but once it goes into the COD then we have other factors that will take over like the PV, EAMT, EPO/PNA couplet along with the AO and NAO domains going N. But yes the MJO has been an overwhelming factor thus far and will aid in our developing winter pattern.

[Dunnzoo]

For the 10000th time Jan 13-15th big storm as pet Jim Witt, Zoo back me up here sista!! On the calendar back pages with dates to watch.

Okay all I can say is that the flip is coming and it may be hard looking at WPO, EAMT, MJO phase and Jet Retraction of the Pacific. I am seein the PV winds decreasing to levels that are near all time lows ala 1985 which was a very cold period from mid Jan through late Feb.in that the year split. The Canadian and arctic domains have lots of HP building which will block us up overhead like November. I feel a rather quick flip to the contrary period coming .
Another thing the STJ will be roaring as it has been and this will allow for multiple storms unlike the 1985 analogy I have posed.
1.2 finally has gone Negative and we have a Modoki Type Nino working here, not declared and most likely won't but it is here for the now which is also a good sign.

Got your back mugsy! Reel that puppy in!

[skinsfan1177]

Lots of good things on the models today regarding the. 11th-15th timeframe

[amugs]

Any implications from this three headed beast?? I think so in about ~10 days









Forecst shows phase 8 - good signal and EURO takes the wave into 1

[rb924119]

Lots of good things on the models today regarding the. 11th-15th timeframe

I still do not personally like this threat, but again will add emphasis to the date range I mentioned a few days ago (~17th-20th) as our pattern locks in.

[hyde345]

I see nothing storm wise for the next 10 days except for some piddly crap Monday night. That takes us into mid January and counting. Very.very disappointing winter so far. I am so sick of rain and temps in the 40's.

[skinsfan1177]

This looks good to me at this time

[rb924119]

You wanna know why I like the 17th-20th so much? This is what a phase on an ensemble looks like, and what’s more, is the overall progression fits this (IMO):



Note: GIF not working from mobile lol

[amugs]

I see nothing storm wise for the next 10 days except for some piddly crap Monday night. That takes us into mid January and counting. Very.very disappointing winter so far. I am so sick of rain and temps in the 40's.

Hyde with all due respect what models are you looking at? We have the GEFS and GEPS and along withe EURO suite showing an arctic front moving though here Thursday and crashing temps into a much more winter regime that is setting up the following weeks.
Jan 13-15th time frame again to watch for a storm as skins posted.

MJO into phase 8 this week - a 3 day lag then it starts it affects

[hyde345]

I see nothing storm wise for the next 10 days except for some piddly crap Monday night. That takes us into mid January and counting. Very.very disappointing winter so far. I am so sick of rain and temps in the 40's.

Hyde with all due respect what models are you looking at? We have the GEFS and GEPS and along withe EURO suite showing an arctic front moving though here Thursday and crashing temps into a much more winter regime that is setting up the following weeks.
Jan 13-15th time frame again to watch for a storm as skins posted.

MJO into phase 8 this week - a 3 day lag then it starts it affects

Mugs, Im looking at Euro, GFS, FV3-GFS, and CMC operationals that I can see on tropical tidbits. I know there is a pattern change in the works with a change to colder temps and chances but I don't see any real chances for significant snow threats for the next 10 days and I guess Im getting a little impatient.

[algae888]

I see nothing storm wise for the next 10 days except for some piddly crap Monday night. That takes us into mid January and counting. Very.very disappointing winter so far. I am so sick of rain and temps in the 40's.

Hyde with all due respect what models are you looking at? We have the GEFS and GEPS and along withe EURO suite showing an arctic front moving though here Thursday and crashing temps into a much more winter regime that is setting up the following weeks.
Jan 13-15th time frame again to watch for a storm as skins posted.

MJO into phase 8 this week - a 3 day lag then it starts it affects

Mugs, Im looking at Euro, GFS, FV3-GFS, and CMC operationals that I can see on tropical tidbits. I know there is a pattern change in the works with a change to colder temps and chances but I don't see any real chances for significant snow threats for the next 10 days and I guess Im getting a little impatient.

Today's euro is very close for next weekend if you look at the UK met it looks similar a hour 144 as far out as it goes true the GFS and CMC are a miss new GFS similar to the euro still a ways to go with this one and with a pattern in flux models will not have a handle on this for a few days but yes it's been very frustrating usually we can score a decent event even in a crappy pattern but we've been very unlucky there are no guarantees for snow even with good patterns but our chances do increase

[algae888]

The GE FS look better than the operational for next weekend hopefully we can score with this one

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