October 2018 Observations & Discussions

They upgraded nj to a hww. I think entire coast including NYC ate a will be in one before day is out the 3km nam gusts suggest that easily.

JMAN for you

These winds on the models never pan out.

Power outages possible with the winds and the wetness combo

I agree mugs sroc not always true but yes does happen where dontpan out. Feb 2017 I think way under modeled windstorm.

There's now a flash flood watch things keep increasing.

Lots of chatter about winds not mixing down to surface

skinsfan1177 wrote:Lots of chatter about winds not mixing down to surface

really well that very well could be so. Where you hearing this? Even nws gives us 50mph which isn't much diff than 55mph.

hey everyone happy friday i have been so busy at work .i was just want to know when will we have the full brunt of the storm thanks guys

local mets were saying sometime between 2am-6am saturday

wow the catskills has a first wwa starting 2 am till 11 am sat for 1 inch snow

The local media hype around this storm is, err, interesting.

Nevertheless, some solid coastal flooding for certain areas and most of us will be rockin & rollin in some good winds and heavy rain from 3am until midday-ish. Euro bumped up winds a bit but yeah, what mixes down remains to be seen.

SoulSingMG wrote:The local media hype around this storm is, err, interesting.

Nevertheless, some solid coastal flooding for certain areas and most of us will be rockin & rollin in some good winds and heavy rain from 3am until midday-ish. Euro bumped up winds a bit but yeah, what mixes down remains to be seen.

local media hype? I haven't seen any van u explain what u mean by interesting?

Wow euro has widespread 45 to 55mph gusts from about 7am to 2pm and 35 to 50 before and after. with some 60 to 70 mph over central to eastern long island during the height. If that were true I think this would be a much bigger deal especially with the wet ground and full leaves. We will see starting late tonight. Models aren't always wrong.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow euro has widespread 45 to 55mph gusts from about 7am to 2pm and 35 to 50 before and after. with some 60 to 70 mph over central to eastern long island during the height. If that were true I think this would be a much bigger deal especially with the wet ground and full leaves. We will see starting late tonight. Models aren't always wrong.

Yeah just tons of media coverage. And yeah, if 00z high res up the ante, maybe we'll get into a HWW Jman.

Looking at the radar it looks like we are in for a soaking. Solid wall of heavy rain headed this way. Should be here before midnight. Fun! At least it should be good weather for sleeping in tomorrow morning.

Feels like snow 42 here in Dobbs. The smell outside makes me want snow!!

NWS #1 Briefing

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/10262018pm_web.pdf

Vinnydula wrote:Feels like snow 42 here in Dobbs. The smell outside makes me want snow!!

Upstate NY has a WWA do 1-2" of white gold.

00z 3km is coming in wind very intense rains and wind. so is hrrr, imo we all go to hww but i could be wrong if the thinking by nws is they wont mix down as shown, but if u compare the precip map and gust map the higher gusts are under very heavy areas of rain so they may very well mix down, we will see.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:00z 3km is coming in wind very intense rains and wind. so is hrrr, imo we all go to hww but i could be wrong if the thinking by nws is they wont mix down as shown, but if u compare the precip map and gust map the higher gusts are under very heavy areas of rain so they may very well mix down, we will see.

Look at your soundings, Jman, and they will guide you to the likelihood of wind impacts I’m at work, so I can’t assist much more that that at the moment lol

yeah I never really figured out how to read those things. Btw what kind of job is running at 1:40 in the morning what do u do?

Winds are picking up on coast. Weathermom that 56 is close to you

skinsfan1177 wrote:Winds are picking up on coast. Weathermom that 56 is close to you

wow that actually verifies quite well so far with the sr models. Is there that same map for NYC area? I can see oranges around Staten island so I'm guessing they aren't far away it is getting breexier here. Nws said between 6am.and noon for highest so we will see

Wow that map updated first gust over 60mph just north of that 56 to 62mph!