JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:You guys know me by now no hope we get this kind of ice storm. I love to watch the mass panic when we have bad weather

Not in LI or coastal areas, but inland areas this is a definite possibility.

I’ve had a few here on LI of .4” or more that I remember CP. last one was 1994

[quote="syosnow94"]

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:You guys know me by now no hope we get this kind of ice storm. I love to watch the mass panic when we have bad weather

Not in LI or coastal areas, but inland areas this is a definite possibility.

anything over .25 starts to cause big issues. 1.5 to 2.0 is just rediculous. Soy I too enjoy watch the panic and I would kinda like to see a severe ice storm as long as its not life threatening. To me seems it would be more of a tree and power issue. The unfortunate accidents would be those dumb enough to drive in something like that. I feel bad but have a hard time feeling too sympathetic to the decision to go out.

sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?

TheAresian wrote:sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?

It's not as flat as the 6z however it's still south of most models this run gives DC 3 to 4 in of snow at hour 84. So you can bet that it will be snowing here if extrapolated out the next few frames it also looks like it wants to redevelop off the North Carolina coast as the last two frames move due east across Tennessee

algae888 wrote:

TheAresian wrote:sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?

It's not as flat as the 6z however it's still south of most models this run gives DC 3 to 4 in of snow at hour 84. So you can bet that it will be snowing here if extrapolated out the next few frames it also looks like it wants to redevelop off the North Carolina coast as the last two frames move due east across Tennessee

this bode good or bad for me and you and anyone else in the immediate tri state? Like snow entire time like deep thunder map or still a messy mix? This is very interesting how the things we usually want with a storm we don't here in order for it to be big.

algae888 wrote:

TheAresian wrote:sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?

It's not as flat as the 6z however it's still south of most models this run gives DC 3 to 4 in of snow at hour 84. So you can bet that it will be snowing here if extrapolated out the next few frames it also looks like it wants to redevelop off the North Carolina coast as the last two frames move due east across Tennessee

Cant argue here. Im at work so tough to look at in detail.

At this point is it not realistic to expect an all snow event down to the coast? Or is that still on the table?

lglickman1 wrote:At this point is it not realistic to expect an all snow event down to the coast?  Or is that still on the table?

the setup is hard going to be for all snow down to the coast not out of the question yet but probably less likely than a mix or a change over at some point. Still doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow first still a lot to be ironed out of all the models then Nam has the best shot at staying snow because it's so flat

How concerned should be be about potential ice storms based on the latest models?

Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Grselig wrote:How concerned should be be about potential ice storms based on the latest models?  

from what I have read in past posts and seen on the models its not impossible to see a severe ice storm but what the models show seems outlandish to me but I guess these things can and do happen very infrequently. I'd like to see the short range and its ice output if any so that will be another 2 days or so.

Rb just looked at the German icon model it's definitely South of yesterday's runs not only that but New York City on North never get above freezing throughout the storm however there are four or five frames where its showing liquid and not snow falling which would mean either sleet or freezing rain. You can see the precipitation field shrink to our North as the model this feeling the Press from the polar vortex models are really going to have a tough time with thermals and precipitation type until we're very close in

Is it just me or does it look like the NAM might be trying to form a new low off the Carolina coast? It's clown range for the NAM, but still. That would be...interesting....if that possibility was on the table.

rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Yup and extrapolating further on the NAM the N vort looks to make this sucker go Boom as it phases and the LP exits the coast around the southern delmarva area...again extrapolated.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Yup and extrapolating further on the NAM the N vort looks to make this sucker go Boom as it phases and the LP exits the coast around the southern delmarva area...again extrapolated.  

Which would be great for all if it happened the way I see it in my head

I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.

The temperature gradient on the ICON is surreal. 50's in southern NJ, 40's in CNJ, then well below freezing up in NNJ. This is a MAJOR ice signature.

So far the nam looks good with a flat wave and probably would be a lot of snow in most areas here the German icon 6 to 12 in of snow from New York City north and west with a lot of ice to follow as temperatures are very cold. now we get to the bigger boys before the Big Boy comes out at 1

When the precip maps pick up on very intense precip rates like this one, in the dead of winter, it usually means ice.



And then you validate it against the temperature map...and...yes. Lots and lots of ice.

Frank_Wx wrote:I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.

Frank I think you're incorrect on the German icon it did not count any sleet or freezing rain as snow if you scroll through each frame you'll see that once the precipitation is liquid it doesn't show any additional accumulations for our area check again I'm using tropical tidbits

rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Exactly - there is a ton of cold low level cold air to work with - that is gonna be tough to scour - you have many factor working in teh favor that you have a cold snowpack and decent to our south which will help in this as well as. The wind barbs of the NAM at its end are pointing for teh N so that means a cold air drain. You may warm the mid levels but that layer of cold air has and will do its dirty work.

@Jimmy - SYO - welcome back !!
That ice is quite possible for teh N & W burbs of NYC happened before again ala 1994 MLK storm 1.5 - 2" of ice and sleet then 2-3" of snow back then. Also 2000 we had a prolonged icing event with a SWFE fro MLK weekend - 2 day storm with 3/4 ice accretion in my area.

CP - bite you tongue you want rain - yo'd be the first to biag about another rainstorm and Frank would have to shut the board down so get what you get from this and dont get upset - you guys should stay predominately snow!!

NAM looks very good at the 500 level

Great Map from NFSwx on 33& rain
shows with the arrow how the flattening of teh PNA ridge is going to allow the TPV to flatten and the LP to dig further south and not interact with this or phase and create better separation. Thus dampening heights on the EC and you can see this and allowing the LP to slip under the TPV and not phase - let this piece of energy do all the work and it will. Complex set up indeed but very fun to track adn figure out IMO. See teh wave crash the BC coast - that wil laid in this evolution as well.

Hey all, just joined the crew here because I'm a winter weather nut! I've been following all your updates on this possible beast coming this weekend, hoping for more snow than rain. Thx for the updates and keep 'em coming!

Irish

Frank_Wx wrote:I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.

I think the NAM looks generally fantastic, Frank. As long as the energy in the northern stream gets ahead of the southern stream (which it clearly does on the NAM), a large portion of our area will be ok in terms of remaining frozen and not turning wet. That will keep heights suppressed and the flow more W-E than N-S.

Frank this is the money shot right now fro the NAM: kill the Primary in Tenn and bang its over not a chance in hell you get a warm air push with that cold over head into our area up here. Hope it holds or trends better

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Yup and extrapolating further on the NAM the N vort looks to make this sucker go Boom as it phases and the LP exits the coast around the southern delmarva area...again extrapolated.  

Which would be great for all if it happened the way I see it in my head

It would be much too late, imo.

algae888 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.

Frank I think you're incorrect on the German icon it did not count any sleet or freezing rain as snow if you scroll through each frame you'll see that once the precipitation is liquid it doesn't show any additional accumulations for our area check again I'm using tropical tidbits

The snow map I posted is from StormVista. Here is TT's snow map of the 12z ICON, which is a pure snow map.

Irish wrote:Hey all, just joined the crew here because I'm a winter weather nut!  I've been following all your updates on this possible beast coming this weekend, hoping for more snow than rain.  Thx for the updates and keep 'em coming!

Irish

Welcome aboard!!! So glad to have you!! Enjoy the ride hahaha