Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:18 pm

32 degrees with light snow. Dew point 22 and set my bar at an inch.

by **Vinnydula** Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:35 pm

Getting some light mist right now

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

rb, thank you for all your hard work on this forum. Weather will be weather and it sometimes throws us a curve. We are all upset or disappointed on how this winter has been, but if we didn't love it, we wouldn't be. That's why we're all here, despite ups and downs, snow or rain, we love tracking and learning the science behind what happens. It also makes us crazy! It has been an amazing week for me in regards to what I have learned, and for that I thank everyone here. It has been a rough patch for my fam lately, and this has been my go-to place to escape. I will be here, tracking tonight, excitedly waiting to see what forms of precip we get and when. It is what it is, and I hope to see some of you posting tonight. If anyone has to go out, please be safe!

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:56 pm

Im shocked, very very light fine snow here, how vinny is misting and is north of me is just miles from me and is raining.

by Guest Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:59 pm

They're not good, but the lighting is terrible so I had to stand in the snow to get even these poor shots.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Snow110

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 13 Snow210

by **Vinnydula** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:07 pm

Jmam I didn't realize it was light light snow until I looked in the street light

by **Vinnydula** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:09 pm

Not sticking Dobbs puts down salt like it's free

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:11 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Jmam I didn't realize it was light light snow until I looked in the street light

Yeah I got plenty of street lights here, unfortunently they put in the ultra brights years ago so instead of that low glow its like daylight.

by Guest Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:14 pm

I've got 3 street lights for the entire block and 2 of them are on the side with a lot of trees, further reducing their effectiveness.

by **Dtone** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Im shocked, very very light fine snow here, how vinny is misting and is north of me is just miles from me and is raining.

I turned to light wet snow now. Still some rain mixed.

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:20 pm

Light snow 27.Warmer solution now, down to 4 to 8 from 6 to 10 but more ice in the picture.Mix now even way up to the Roscoe NY area that was all snow yesterday.Even possible mix of sleet in Binghamton.They say the mix starts up here by midnight.

by **algae888** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:24 pm

Radar is lighting up in north central New Jersey heading for the city rapidly no model had this at this time anyone who's in North Central Jersey is it rain or snow

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:26 pm

27.7 light/moderate snow. A little over a half inch

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:28 pm

docstox12 wrote:Light snow 27.Warmer solution now, down to 4 to 8 from 6 to 10 but more ice in the picture.Mix now even way up to the Roscoe NY area that was all snow yesterday.Even possible mix of sleet in Binghamton.They say the mix starts up here by midnight.

Keeps going down Doc, like several stocks I bought in the dotcom bubble.

by DAYBLAZER Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:30 pm

Checking in from Hopatcong Sussex Co. Moderate snow for the past hour or so.

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:35 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Light snow 27.Warmer solution now, down to 4 to 8 from 6 to 10 but more ice in the picture.Mix now even way up to the Roscoe NY area that was all snow yesterday.Even possible mix of sleet in Binghamton.They say the mix starts up here by midnight.

Keeps going down Doc, like several stocks I bought in the dotcom bubble.

Yep, CP, like the Otis Elevator stock I bought once....lot's of ups and downs in that one!

Intensity increasing now light to moderate like you CP.We have a 4 1/2 hour window to put down all the snow we will get from this thing.If we get a band, maybe we can make that 4 to 8 they are calling for.First significant snow since Nov 15 sad to say.

by **Snow88** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:40 pm

Drizzle here

by **brownie** Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:43 pm

Very fine snow here.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:07 pm

Went up a degree to 39* and it's raining lightly..back to the family movie we are watching...

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:08 pm

1" otg. Heavy snow 32 degrees. Made sure i walked the dog as he usually loves snow, but acted like he never seen it before. Hmm...

by **Radz** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:15 pm

No thump here, after 2 hrs barely 1/2", 32° even...

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:15 pm

Pouring rain in Cranford

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Pouring rain in Cranford

You are the most stable person on this board...I guess thats why you run it, your so calm about such a crummy situation. Not your fault if I did not already say it you all put a ton of effort into this and its great, without this board I would not really have anyone to discuss weather with.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Pouring rain in Cranford
You are the most stable person on this board...I guess thats why you run it, your so calm about such a crummy situation. Not your fault if I did not already say it you all put a ton of effort into this and its great, without this board I would not really have anyone to discuss weather with.

Even my forecast which is showing a 'warmer' scenario will bust high. Its truly been that type of winter. We give a lot of beef to the GFS, but to be honest, its probably one of the most consistent models. The UKMET and EURO were very inconsistent.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Pouring rain in Cranford
You are the most stable person on this board...I guess thats why you run it, your so calm about such a crummy situation. Not your fault if I did not already say it you all put a ton of effort into this and its great, without this board I would not really have anyone to discuss weather with.

Even my forecast which is showing a 'warmer' scenario will bust high. Its truly been that type of winter. We give a lot of beef to the GFS, but to be honest, its probably one of the most consistent models. The UKMET and EURO were very inconsistent.

Ehh its weather, def not a exact science, I tend to get over things fairly quickly already almost there and am praying what i see around the 28th pans out. You do like that time period more than anything yet this year yes? And about the GFS, if you say its pretty consistent then why do we give it beef? Maybe we should start taking it more seriously and put more weight from it into a forecast.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:30 pm

24.4 moderate snow, a little over an inch

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:33 pm

Surface is warm along the coast. Those who still have a cold surface the radar looks really good. You should get a very nice front-end thump.

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