Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

by **billg315** Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:40 pm

hyde345 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Sorry to say, but it's looking like the 18z NAM may be a bit warmer, which is to say slight movement toward the other warmer models. For the first time it is showing plain rain just north of I-78 in NJ.

Very small difference.

Yeah definitely not a huge jump. But also, as I said above, if the NAM is off on temps by a few degrees that’s the difference between an extended snow/ice event vs a mostly rain event for a lot of people. And this was a tick in the wrong direction. If there was a lot of support for the NAM from other models I’d probably ignore a small change like this on one run. But since the NAM seems a bit of an outlier on this now, it has to be viewed with caution.

by **billg315** Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:44 pm

That WSW is interesting. The NAM - which is one of our colder solutions right now - doesn’t show anyone in that area getting more than 3-4”.

by Guest Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:51 pm

Newest warning from NWS holds serve for me: 12-20" winds of no more than 10 MPH until basically the end of the storm on Sunday when they'll pick up a bit with guests up to 35 MPH.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:04 pm

Just because the models are warm today doesn't mean its the final soln tomorrow. Im telling you this has colder soln written all over it. How much colder we shall see, but I bet today is too warm relative to final soln.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:07 pm

Sussex-Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, and Morristown
320 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of up to
two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Sussex, Warren and Morris counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult on icy and
snow- covered roads. Power outages will also be possible due to
a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally,
bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into Monday
as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 8 In4JaxE

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 8 In4JaxE

by **billg315** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:10 pm

TheAresian wrote:Newest warning from NWS holds serve for me: 12-20" winds of no more than 10 MPH until basically the end of the storm on Sunday when they'll pick up a bit with guests up to 35 MPH.

I hope this isn’t the KOD but Aresian, of everyone on this board you are the one I’m most confident of getting over a foot of snow from this. Even if it trended a bit south and east I think you’d still do great.

by Guest Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:15 pm

That won't be the kiss of death. If anything will doom me, then it will be Accuweather using the B word to describe conditions overnight.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:Just because the models are warm today doesn't mean its the final soln tomorrow. Im telling you this has colder soln written all over it. How much colder we shall see, but I bet today is too warm relative to final soln.

Scott absolutely,
AFD talks about the CAD sign here
The old two step move here.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:17 pm

Weather Channel app was 8-12 this morning, changed me to 5-8 after the 12Z's and now is back to 8-12. WSW is still unchanged at 6-10.

I'm a little surprised. They all must be putting stock in that front end thump being pretty intense.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:27 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Weather Channel app was 8-12 this morning, changed me to 5-8 after the 12Z's and now is back to 8-12. WSW is still unchanged at 6-10.

I'm a little surprised. They all must be putting stock in that front end thump being pretty intense.

Or possibly an increase on the back end. I think the latest NAM was hinting at this.

by Adrianf Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:33 pm

Certainly not a meteorologist here but as someone whose been plowing snow for a while I definatly feel this is one of those storms where no model can be relied on. It will be a last minute forecast as far as having half a clue where that warm line will setup. 30+ mile movement north or south happens with regularity. And honestly that's all it will take to boom or bust it for us here in cnj. Just no ice please....

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:38 pm

by **Scullybutcher** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:Just because the models are warm today doesn't mean its the final soln tomorrow. Im telling you this has colder soln written all over it. How much colder we shall see, but I bet today is too warm relative to final soln.

Even if it came in colder that may help other people on this board but LI would still get screwed by the warm nose? The colder solution is t enough to push the whole storm south, or is it?

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:47 pm

According to 3km the ice frz threat of .25 to as much as 1.0 is still there in a band from nj through NYC area and just north and into ct. Very little snow. Like 3 or 4 inches. This well may be a ice storm and nothing more which will be interesting but not fun.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:49 pm

They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 8 Nws10

by **HectorO** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:53 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

Looks like 9 for me. I'll let you guys know how my little snow blower does Laughing

I'm always the one to freeze my @$$ off while everyone else is warm inside.

by **frank 638** Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:According to 3km the ice frz threat of .25 to as much as 1.0 is still there in a band from nj through NYC area and just north and into ct. Very little snow. Like 3 or 4 inches. This well may be a ice storm and nothing more which will be interesting but not fun.

no it's not as much I love snow I rather have sleet then freezing rain .I know we are not to far from each other do you think we will get more freezing rain then sleet for the Bronx and Yonkers

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:01 pm

HectorO wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

Looks like 9 for me. I'll let you guys know how my little snow blower does I'm always the one to freeze my @$$ off while everyone else is warm inside.

I just can't see this verifying though. It seems to go against every model run today. Weren't you in Mahwah for awhile?

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:04 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:According to 3km the ice frz threat of .25 to as much as 1.0 is still there in a band from nj through NYC area and just north and into ct. Very little snow. Like 3 or 4 inches. This well may be a ice storm and nothing more which will be interesting but not fun.
no it's not as much I love snow I rather have sleet then freezing rain .I know we are not to far from each other do you think we will get more freezing rain then sleet for the Bronx and Yonkers

imo yes be prepared for a severe ice storm. Highway signs say ice and snow storm. 6 inches of snow b4 a huge amount of frz is not good especially if the trees take on the snow first.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:05 pm

Man my low Monday 3 with windchills to -20! High of only 8! Tuesday is not much better. I hope school is cancelled.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:06 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Just because the models are warm today doesn't mean its the final soln tomorrow. Im telling you this has colder soln written all over it. How much colder we shall see, but I bet today is too warm relative to final soln.
Even if it came in colder that may help other people on this board but LI would still get screwed by the warm nose? The colder solution is t enough to push the whole storm south, or is it?

With this storm the begining parts of the this storm is where the money will be made. It is going to "Thump" in the beginning. The further N&W you are the longer it thumps. Even here on LI I think we thump. The one thing these set ups almost ALWAYS under does is how hard it is to scour out the cold. Even in the mid levels. Now as has been stated many time leading up to today there will be intense gradients creating unbelievable lift un related to the surface low itself but rather the baroclinic zone. Take the latest NAM. Here is is snowing N of the LIE with vertical velocities in the -30-70 range. IT WILL THUMP!!! trust me on that. now if you get under this before the warm nose you will likely experience snow fall rates of 1-3" an hr. Do the math. If it only snows for 2-4 hrs which for areas of LI that is TOTALLY doable, you could see 3-6" easy. The further N and west you go the longer you stay thumping. Im telling you there will be busts high and low. The frontogenic bands if your under them at the right time you could see 6-12" in 36 hrs of snowfall. Is this a lock of course not. But I have seen this set up before. even the euro which moves in 6hr increments will struggle with these details because it simply doesnt have the resolution to see when exactly the transition will happen with any given 6 hr frame. Rb has said it many times here the difference between good ratios and rain wont be very far away, so if your in it you likely accumulate fast.

by **algae888** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:07 pm

We have to stop looking at the models verbatim they are only here to guide us to make a forecast. Look at all the ingredients in play hear a strong Arctic High over Quebec dense cold air on Saturday throughout the atmosphere. Highs on Saturday are in the upper 20s and low 30s across our area. Moist warm air is going to push into that there's going to be resistance from the cold as you know it is denser and stronger than warm air it is going to snow for several hours in most of our listening area. This is what historically happened in setups like this. You can draw a line from just north of Philly through Trenton through Edison and then hook right to Encompass all of Long Island up to 287 in New Jersey and New York 2 to 6 in south to North. North of 287 6 to 12 in. The freezing rain threat is primarily going to be north of 287 although parts of very Northeastern New Jersey and Southern Westchester will also have freezing rain concern. If its 31 degrees in Manhattan during the day Light freezing rain is not going to be an issue but if it's 25 degrees in White Plains it will be much more impactful there that's my call

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:08 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
HectorO wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

Looks like 9 for me. I'll let you guys know how my little snow blower does I'm always the one to freeze my @$$ off while everyone else is warm inside.

I just can't see this verifying though. It seems to go against every model run today. Weren't you in Mahwah for awhile?

I can

by **algae888** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:11 pm

Here's how my forecast busts high or low and this is the only way it happens. If precipitation is delayed for several hours cut those totals down if precipitation hangs on as snow longer we can up those totals it's going to be a very interesting nowcast tomorrow. If you don't get your hopes up for an all-out snowstorm then this should be very fun tomorrow any snow is good snow

by **hyde345** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:16 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
HectorO wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

Looks like 9 for me. I'll let you guys know how my little snow blower does I'm always the one to freeze my @$$ off while everyone else is warm inside.

I just can't see this verifying though. It seems to go against every model run today. Weren't you in Mahwah for awhile?

Im not sure why you can't see this verifying. I think you and I get 8+. There is cold air locked in and I firmly believe its going to snow moderate to heavy for an 8 hour period before mixing with and possibly changing to sleet. Freezing rain is not going to be a big concern for us most likely. For once the pros are not hugging the GFS and I'm happy about that.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Just because the models are warm today doesn't mean its the final soln tomorrow. Im telling you this has colder soln written all over it. How much colder we shall see, but I bet today is too warm relative to final soln.
Even if it came in colder that may help other people on this board but LI would still get screwed by the warm nose? The colder solution is t enough to push the whole storm south, or is it?

With this storm the begining parts of the this storm is where the money will be made. It is going to "Thump" in the beginning. The further N&W you are the longer it thumps. Even here on LI I think we thump. The one thing these set ups almost ALWAYS under does is how hard it is to scour out the cold. Even in the mid levels. Now as has been stated many time leading up to today there will be intense gradients creating unbelievable lift un related to the surface low itself but rather the baroclinic zone. Take the latest NAM. Here is is snowing N of the LIE with vertical velocities in the -30-70 range. IT WILL THUMP!!! trust me on that. now if you get under this before the warm nose you will likely experience snow fall rates of 1-3" an hr. Do the math. If it only snows for 2-4 hrs which for areas of LI that is TOTALLY doable, you could see 3-6" easy. The further N and west you go the longer you stay thumping. Im telling you there will be busts high and low. The frontogenic bands if your under them at the right time you could see 6-12" in 36 hrs of snowfall. Is this a lock of course not. But I have seen this set up before. even the euro which moves in 6hr increments will struggle with these details because it simply doesnt have the resolution to see when exactly the transition will happen with any given 6 hr frame. Rb has said it many times here the difference between good ratios and rain wont be very far away, so if your in it you likely accumulate fast.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 8 Vv10

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 8 Nam_re10

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
HectorO wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

Looks like 9 for me. I'll let you guys know how my little snow blower does I'm always the one to freeze my @$$ off while everyone else is warm inside.

I just can't see this verifying though. It seems to go against every model run today. Weren't you in Mahwah for awhile?

I can

I'd certainly trust your word over theirs.

BTW I've been meaning to tell you. My wife and I were in Red Sox Suck about a month ago. We went on a pizza and history tour and were talking to another couple, maybe in their early forties. They tell me their from Wading River so of course I say I have a good friend in Wading River and he's a vet there. Well it turn out they didn't know you, as they don't have or own any animals, but friends of theirs do and they said they do nothing but sing your praises. I wasn't surprised.

Just glad they didn't ask what your last name was cause I have no clue. I didn't want to go through the explanation of the whole weather forum thing. My wife would have hit me.

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