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Post by HectorO on Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:26 pm

Mid December, to end of December, to mid-month January to now end of January. White towels coming in soon..
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Post by mikeypizano on Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:06 pm

@HectorO wrote:Mid December, to end of December, to mid-month January to now end of January. White towels coming in soon..

Already thrown in, screw it, I want an early spring!
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:22 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:WOW!!!!!

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 19 Ecmwf210

wow is right...sad

The proverbial January thaw.Too bad there is nothing to thaw,LOL.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:51 am

Those temp anomalies this weekend will of course be accompanied by rain. So consider it a washout if that pans out. After a couple cold days middle of this week it doesn’t look to get cold (or normal) again until the end of next week. So fair to say, the coating of snow last night and whatever snow we squeeze out of tomorrow nights system will likely be it for us until “late” January (i.e after Jan. 15).
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Post by mikeypizano on Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:00 am

@billg315 wrote:Those temp anomalies this weekend will of course be accompanied by rain. So consider it a washout if that pans out. After a couple cold days middle of this week it doesn’t look to get cold (or normal) again until the end of next week. So fair to say, the coating of snow last night and whatever snow we squeeze out of tomorrow nights system will likely be it for us until “late” January (i.e after Jan. 15).

All we seem to get is warm and rain, or cold and dry. pale
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:59 pm

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JANET!!
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:04 pm

Thanks for the birthday wishes! The meet up is coming up so please RSVP!
Saturday, January 18th, 4 pm at Stout on 33rd st.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by frank 638 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:12 pm

On this day January 7, 1996 The east coast was Dealing with largest blizzard ever and that was my favorite snowstorm . I remember the Bronx and Staten Island had the most snow we ended up with 30 inches of snow . During the cleanup I remember My parents couldn’t open the door due to the snow drifts schools were closed for two days. Now tonight it’s going to snow with a lousy coating So sad and frustrating because we all love winter if thisJanuary goes out with no snow Let’s hope February and March will produce couple snowstorms

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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:53 pm

Frank absolutely, the best blizzard in my lifetime for the Megalopolis, just paralyzed us for days up to a week. Totally undermeasured at just about every location.

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Post by HectorO on Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:47 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@HectorO wrote:Mid December, to end of December, to mid-month January to now end of January. White towels coming in soon..

Already thrown in, screw it, I want an early spring!

I'm pretty sure in 208 I saw some budding. This reminds me of the winter 2011/2012. Almost hit 70 one of those days in January. This weekend looks 65 so far.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:15 pm

Hi all,
If you are in the area of Westwood, NJ on Tuesday, the North Jersey Weather Observers will be hosting Judah Cohen via Skype. Most of you know of him, if not, here is his site:

www.judahcohen.org

The address is Westwood Public Library 49 Park Ave Westwood, NJ 07675

He is doing a poster session at the AMS conference until 6pm so he will be available between 7 - 7:30 pm. Would be good to see some of you!


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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:16 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Hi all,
If you are in the area of Westwood, NJ on Tuesday, the North Jersey Weather Observers will be hosting Judah Cohen via Skype. Most of you know of him, if not, here is his site:

www.judahcohen.org

The address is Westwood Public Library    49 Park Ave      Westwood, NJ 07675

He is doing a poster session at the AMS conference until 6pm so he will be available between 7 - 7:30 pm. Would be good to see some of you!


That is so cool. He is very knowledgeable when it comes to the Stratosphere. Focus lots of your questions on that! I have a feeling he will tell you there will not be a major SSWE that takes place this winter Sad

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:22 pm

Awesome Janet did not know you pulled this off!!
See you there!!

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Post by amugs on Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:09 am

Read, well listened to a weather scientists (calls himself Diamond) who has made a few calls so far and nailed each one said the east coast will experience 3 blizzards the was he sees this pattern evolving.
Also said the Meridional flow of the jet is going to get more pronounced in late Jan & February so well see more extreme weather i.e. snow down to New Oreleans and Central Fla.
Also said winter will (like events cold shots and wintry storms) last through mid April in Northeast this year
Interesting.
He called the early fall blizzards and cold shots in the Great Plains and Rockies and cold shot for the NE for Nov into Dec.
Lastly, we are just entering solar cycle 25 on this Grand Solar Minimum which even NOAA has said will be the lowest in about 200 years. This year will see an uptick in solar sunspots and Coronal holes.
Sunspot predictions range from 95 to 120. That would still mean we would be anywhere from 75% to 67% of days without sunspots. Tjis would aid in the geomagnetic affects of EQ and Volcanos on our space ship planet earth. Heck we have seen many moderate EQ's (5.0 -6.4) and volcanic eruptions of VEI level 3. There will be more of these to come plus more powerful ones due to this build up.
Coronal holes are holes in sun from its inner physics dynamics that eject out massive amounts of gamma ray's, neutrons and plasma particles that disrupt our planets geomagnetic balance and North and South Poles functions. They are shifting as they have many times before and if they do indeed meet up one day there could be a cataclysmic event that sends us back to medieval era. Sorry to inform but some scientist who have been studying this believe it will happen towards the mid and later part of the century.
CME - coronal mass ejection from these coronsl holes if large enough and we dodged a medium one this week could have knocked our inter planetary communication system out ala our satellite system. Larger ones magnify this issue
Hence then1859 Carrington event, also other smaller scale ones happened in the late 1880's ,early 1910's, 1970's and in the mid 1990's. Tjis is not a well it won't happen again, your wrong it is a matter of when. There is not much to do prevent these the CME's dwarf in size our planet at times.
From what I have seen and read there is a sun spot that we may be experience along with a moderate size Coronal hole in about 14 days that could be earth facing. We dodged a few already let's hope it happens again but with the laws of average we are not going to be so lucky in the near future.
So what will happen? Our electrical infrastructure will be compromised. By how much it all depends on the magnitude of the event. Trump, whether you like him or not, has signed an executive order to harden and upgrade our military and civilians electric system to prevent such events from taking them down. Hardening the system fro. EMP and CME. EMP are electrical magnetic pulses that come from space as part of the plasma galactic sheet, that is a whole other write up . Tjis sheet of cosmic plasma particles is sweeping through our space and has taken out a few sunlike stars . Let's hope it stays wide right or left of our galaxy by a few million miles and it debris field.
I know some are saying this is hogwash, look at history and learn. It loves to repeat itslef something I am really amazed at as to the what,how and why this occurs.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:05 am

I need to keep a close eye on this possible event next weekend as my family has to drive down to Carolina next Saturday morning. Watch. We'll finally get a decent snowfall and I will be in cold rain the whole time. Book that.
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Post by amugs on Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:04 pm

HIGH-LEVEL ERUPTION AT TAAL VOLCANO, PHILIPPINES — ASH FIRED 55,000 FT (16.8 KM) AND INTO THE STRATOSPHERE — DIRECT COOLING EFFECT
JANUARY 12, 2020 CAP ALLON
A high-level stratospheric eruption has just been recorded at Taal Volcano, the Philippines today, January 12, 2019 — the first eruption of any sort since 1977 (solar minimum of weak solar cycle 20).


A thick column of volcanic ash has been fired to an altitude of 55,000 ft (16.8 km) above sea level, according to data released by the Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC).

What does this mean? This will reach the stratosphere and have effects from this massive explosion in about 4 weeks and could have lasting affects for up to 3 months from what I have read.

This is just incredible to see nature's fury and the lightening is from the volcano up into the plume!!
https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1216384098547261442https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1216384098547261442

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:45 am

@amugs wrote:HIGH-LEVEL ERUPTION AT TAAL VOLCANO, PHILIPPINES — ASH FIRED 55,000 FT (16.8 KM) AND INTO THE STRATOSPHERE — DIRECT COOLING EFFECT
JANUARY 12, 2020 CAP ALLON
A high-level stratospheric eruption has just been recorded at Taal Volcano, the Philippines today, January 12, 2019 — the first eruption of any sort since 1977 (solar minimum of weak solar cycle 20).


A thick column of volcanic ash has been fired to an altitude of 55,000 ft (16.8 km) above sea level, according to data released by the Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC).

What does this mean? This will reach the stratosphere and have effects from this massive explosion in about 4 weeks and could have lasting affects for up to 3 months from what I have read.

This is just incredible to see nature's fury and the lightening is from the volcano up into the plume!!
https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1216384098547261442https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1216384098547261442

@amugs

Cool video of the eruption along with some other interesting tidbits about the globe and universe.



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rgz7hJpAyhY

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:44 am

Hi all, surprised no one wondered where I was last 2 or so weeks, I been lurking but been annoyed with the weather so thought best I log off and stay away till I could come to. Anyways I am not buying this Saturday, sounds like another thread the needle, where did the storms that just played out easily anymore? I have lost hope for this winter and if (which I probably will at some point) I get a surprise I will be happy and not have feeling of let down with no prior expectation, thats the only way I can do this anymore. So until its snowing HERE Saturday I will not be putting any stock in it. Though I do see a big storm on GFS (lost my sub to wxbell so no euro) but that still does not have me jumping on the wagon. Scott pretty sure you would agree with my new way of thinking, though lets see how long it lasts LOL
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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:06 pm

I realize that the topic of climate change is a touchy subject among many here, but I was wondering if any of you folks happened to see last nights segment on 60 minutes about the recent flooding events in Venice,Italy.

One of the people interviewed during the show was
Michael Oppenheimer, who is a professor of geosciences at Princeton University. He was a lead author of a landmark report for the United Nations on climate change that found coastal cities are increasingly at risk from sea level rise.

This was his take on it.Michael Oppenheimer: Sea level is rising almost everywhere on Earth. Not only is sea level rising the rise is accelerating. It's happening faster and faster.

John Dickerson: How much faster has that pace quickened?

Michael Oppenheimer: So by the year 2050, which is only 30 years into the future, many places around the world, including in the U.S., are gonna experience their historical once in a hundred year flood level once a year or more frequently. Let me repeat that. An event that used to cause severe flooding once a century, we're gonna get that same water level once a year.

John Dickerson: And what cities are we talking about?

Michael Oppenheimer: Places like Los Angeles, San Diego, Key West, Miami, Jacksonville, Savannah, Honolulu.

Here is a link to the discussion last night.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-blamed-for-higher-tides-creating-uncertainty-for-venices-canals-60-minutes-2020-01-12/

I realize there are varying opinions on this subject, but I am curious as to some of your thoughts and opinions.Interesting that the term global warming wasn't used,but it was referred to as climate change.Do you think these are 2 different terms for the same thing, or are they different from one another?

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Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:53 pm

Greybeard, I am no expert on climatology or if man made CO2 is causing any change, but I do know two things.Where I am sitting right now in the LHV of New York, there was once an ocean.Then, another time long ago, there was 100 feet of ice.All without human industry.What the earth wants to do, it is going to do regardless.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:19 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Greybeard, I am no expert on climatology or if man made CO2 is causing any change, but I do know two things.Where I am sitting right now in the LHV of New York, there was once an ocean.Then, another time long ago, there was 100 feet of ice.All without human industry.What the earth wants to do, it is going to do regardless.
Ditto
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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:34 pm

I totally agree with you guys,but the statement that was made by the Princeton geoscience professor that in 30 yrs. what used to be a 100 year flood will be happening every year instead of every 100 yrs. is what really raised my eyebrows. I agree with your rationalization that there were drastic changes to the earth over the course of thousands of years, but his point was that this drastic change is going to happen within 30 yrs. not 30,000.

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Post by Grselig on Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:44 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:I totally agree with you guys,but the statement that was made by the Princeton geoscience professor that in 30 yrs. what used to be a 100 year flood will be happening every year instead of every 100 yrs. is what really raised my eyebrows. I agree with your rationalization that there were drastic changes to the earth over the course of thousands of years, but his point was that this drastic change is going to happen within 30 yrs. not 30,000.

I too agree that Mother Nature will do as she pleases and the Earth will change. But I also think that ,metaphorically, if you leave a pot of water sitting on the table, it will evaporate. It you put that pot over a flame it will evaporate faster.
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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:21 pm

@Grselig, what you say makes sense, but the Princeton professor more or less has a view that the oceans are rising at an unprecedented rate, so much so that by 2050 many places on earth will be in trouble. Click on the link in my post above and watch the video, it was pretty interesting.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:00 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:I totally agree with you guys,but the statement that was made by the Princeton geoscience professor that in 30 yrs. what used to be a 100 year flood will be happening every year instead of every 100 yrs. is what really raised my eyebrows. I agree with your rationalization that there were drastic changes to the earth over the course of thousands of years, but his point was that this drastic change is going to happen within 30 yrs. not 30,000.

They said that 20 yrs ago too.  Al Gore at the turn of the century and his scientists also said that the Greenland ice sheet will be gone along with most of western Antarctica and the sea level was going to rise close to 20 feet and many coastal cities could have been under water already if we didnt do something to slow our CO2 gas emissions.  Well guess what, our CO2 is higher than ever before and yet the greenland ice sheet is actually at record levels in some spots and Antarctica has set records as well.  In fact the CO2 levels are almost twice as high as they have ever been recorded in over 400,000 years.  Yet riddle me this.  Why is it then if there is a direct correlation between human CO2 emissions and global temperature that the global temperature has been hotter 4 times in the recorded history.  This isnt made up.  This is fact based on the data available to us.
Wouldnt one expect that the temps should be increasing in a 1:1 relationship?  Also, why is it that the current global warming seems to be in a pause?  If anything the data suggests the temps are actually cooler, although still well above normal anomalies.  Why would the temps be paused or even cooling a little if the C02 level conts to rise what seems almost exponentially?  Here is a graph that shows the last 400,000+yrs with Temp anomalies in red on the left side, measured CO2 levels in Blue on the right, and time in yrs horizontally.  I have circled the CO2 level.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 19 A201210

Data Sources for CO2: Vostok ice core, Law Dome ice core, and Mauna Loa air samples.

Data Source for Temperature: Vostok ice core.


You dont have to be a Princeton scientist to see that there is somewhat of a pattern here of warming and cooling.  Up until us silly humans started the industrial revolution one can clearly see that up until recently temp and CO2 seemed to correlate quite nicely actually.  But all of a sudden this arrogant species called humans triggered a surge of CO2 in the atmosphere to levels apparently unprecedented, yet looking at this graph, why then did the temps did not increase in a similar fashion.  Now dont get me wrong here we are a contributor to the input and we play a role, but could there be another player even bigger than man made climate change driving a cyclical pattern on planet earth that occurs on orders of magnitude much bigger than most of us can grasp?  Could it be based on the trends of the past that in the not so distant future, 20-50-maybe 100 or so years from now the cycle will shift back again to the colder phases of the earth?  Like someone did back in the day when the consensus was that the earth was flat or when earth was the center of the universe, cant we at least question the idea that it is a foregone conclusion that us silly humans have whats driving the changing climate all figured out, done/finished?  

With such large time scales what could possibly be driving it then.  Well how about the sun and the cosmos.  Climate change:  The simplified equation should look like this right?:

natural variability + man made contribution = climate change

But what if you got one part of that equation is wrong?  That would make the answer wrong wouldnt it?  Up until this past year solar forcing has not been included in that equation.  But that is changing, and so too will the consensus as more and more scientists start including solar forcing , and the global electric circuit into the Natural variability part of the equation.  This isnt made up cockca.  This is a fact.  It just doesnt get the same mainstream media attention.  Live long enough and we will see a shift in the current "consensus".  Heck there is known documented climate change also occuring on Satturn, Jupiter, and venus.  Only something on a grand scale can cause that on multiple planets.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:27 pm; edited 3 times in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
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Location : Wading River, LI

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